LOS ANGELES — In the nearly 11 years since researchers rang alarm bells that women on hormone replacement therapy faced an increased risk of breast cancer, some have suggested that taking estrogen and progestin to treat symptoms of menopause might not be so dangerous after all.
Though it was generally agreed that women who took the two hormones to curb their hot flashes and night sweats raised their chances of developing the disease, many studies suggested that the cancers the women developed were less likely to be deadly.
A new analysis of data from the Women's Health Initiative now casts doubt on those findings. The study, published Friday by the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, concludes that the prognosis for cancers related to hormone replacement therapy is just as dire as for other breast cancers. As a result, women who turn to the treatment are more likely to die of breast cancer than their nonhormone-taking peers.
"You could fill a basketball arena with the women who get the disease," said Dr. Rowan Chlebowski, the principal investigator for the Women's Health Initiative and lead author of the new study.
Nearly 70,000 postmenopausal women participated in randomized clinical trials as part of the Women's Health Initiative project. The study participants who took estrogen plus progestin had higher rates of breast cancer diagnoses and of breast cancer deaths.
At the same time, more than 90,000 additional women took part in a related observational study that tracked details about their health and hormone use over an average of 11 years. Along with many other observational studies, this one found that women who took hormones to treat menopause symptoms and got breast cancer were less likely to die from the illness than women who got breast cancer without taking hormones.
Chlebowski, an oncologist based at the Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute, suspected that the discrepancy could have resulted from key differences between the women in the randomized trial and the women in the observational study.
So he and his team identified a subset of more than 41,000 women from the observational study who more closely matched the women who took part in the randomized trial. The researchers set aside data on women who were not using hormones when they participated in a study but had taken them in the past — a factor that had the potential to complicate the findings.
The new results fell more closely in line with the findings from the original randomized trial: Survival after breast cancer was similar for both hormone users and nonusers. Tumors that arose in women who took hormones were no less deadly.
They had appeared to be, however, because women who had taken hormones years before might have already developed aggressive cancers and would not have participated in the study in the first place. Because of the study design, they had been selected out, Chlebowski said.