Make us your home page
Instagram

Today’s top headlines delivered to you daily.

(View our Privacy Policy)

How the GOP could lose its House majority

It's been recently claimed (for instance, at RealClearPolitics and the New Republic) that the Republican Party is at little risk of losing its majority in the House of Representatives. New surveys suggest that thanks to the shutdown and debt ceiling battle, the situation has changed.

Usually, the president's party loses House seats at the midterm election, so the normal expectation would be for Republicans to gain seats. But exceptions can happen. In 1998, Democrats picked up five seats. That rather surprising result came after a rough few years, during which Speaker Newt Gingrich led the way to the last substantial shutdown, lasting 21 days.

House Republicans enjoy an exceptional advantage in the form of gerrymandered districts. In the 2012 elections, Democrats won the national popular vote by 1.5 percent, but they needed a 7.3 percent margin to take control. So broadly speaking, opinion would have to swing by about 6 percent or more for control of the House to become competitive.

It is said that public opinion has not swung as hard against Republicans as in 1995. But that statement is based on questions that ask who is more to blame, Congress or President Barack Obama. Obama is not up for re-election in 2014.

A more relevant number is the generic congressional preference, which tracks the national vote fairly well. Before the shutdown, three generic congressional preference polls taken Sept. 23-29 (Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, Public Policy Polling) show an average of Democrats up 6 percent, plus or minus 1.5 points. That's a swing of less than 5 percent. This is the last snapshot we have before the shutdown.

More recently, a provocative set of district-level polls was conducted for MoveOn by Public Policy Polling. These are partisan organizations, but I note that of major pollsters, the Democratic-leaning PPP had the best accuracy in 2012. Also, even the worst house biases are no more than 3 percent. As we will see, even that is not enough bias to alter the conclusions here.

PPP surveyed 24 congressional districts currently held by Republicans (including Florida's second, 10th and 13th). They asked voters to choose between their current representative and a generic Democrat. (Details are at http://front.moveon.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/PPP_House_Survey.pdf). In a chart, they graphed the margins they got, plotted against last November's election result. The swing was toward Democrats for 23 races and toward the Republican for one race. The key piece of information is the gray zone. If more than half the points are in that gray zone, then that predicts a swing of more than 6 percent and a Democratic takeover. Currently, 17 out of 24 points are in the gray zone.

Individually, the district-by-district swing is quite variable, from plus 4 percent to minus 23 percent (where plus indicates a swing toward Republicans). But the average is clear and predicts a national popular-vote winning margin for Democrats of 12 percent.

Since the election is more than a year away, it is hard to predict how this will translate to future seat gain/loss. If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule.

Note that in these calculations I did not even include the worst of the news for Republicans. In a follow-up series of questions, PPP then told respondents that their representative voted for the shutdown. At that point, the average swing moved a further 3.1 percent toward Democrats, and 22 out of 24 points were in the gray zone. That would be more like a 50-seat gain for Democrats — equivalent to a wave election.

Of course, the big question is how the current snapshot, a probable House turnover to the Democrats, will evolve in the coming 12 months. At the moment we are in territory that resembles 1995, a shutdown with blame going largely to congressional Republicans. If the government is funded with a continuing resolution, then opinion could easily swing back and the GOP could hold on to the House. But what if the government hits the debt ceiling? In such an extreme circumstance, which has been called the domestic equivalent of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the outcome I have calculated here becomes quite a plausible scenario.

At this point, an analyst would have to be crazy to predict that that will happen. However, it seems like mandatory information for a Democratic campaign strategist — or any Republican incumbent who won by less than 20 points in 2012.

Sam Wang is an associate professor of neuroscience and molecular biology at Princeton University. He is also co-founder of the Princeton Election Consortium.

© 2013 Washington Post

The shaded area shows where the swing toward Democrats is more than 6%.

Is a Democratic takeover

of the House possible?

In the 2012 congressional elections, Democrats won the national

popular vote by 1.5 percent, but they needed a 7.3 percentage point margin to take control (because of gerrymandering, among other things). So broadly speaking, opinion would have to swing by about

6 percent or more for control of the House to become competitive. This chart looks at the November 2012 GOP margin of victory in 24 House districts (the horizontal axis) and compares it to the margin of victory (or loss) each GOP incumbent would have were the election held now against a "generic Democrat" (the vertical axis), according to a new poll. Here's what matters: Though the chart shows all but one of those seats swinging toward the Democrats, remember that the "swing" needs to be more than 6 percent nationally for the Democrats to take over. The shaded area shows districts where that's the case – 17 out of 24 – which predicts a Democratic takeover. No one is saying that's going to happen – the election is more than a year away. But it shows the power of the government shutdown on current public opinion.

How the GOP could lose its House majority 10/10/13 [Last modified: Friday, October 11, 2013 4:37pm]
Photo reprints | Article reprints

    

Join the discussion: Click to view comments, add yours

Loading...
  1. Have your say Tampa Bay on the region's future transit options

    Mass Transit

    TAMPA — It's time, yet again, for Tampa Bay residents to tell officials what kind of transit options they want for their region.

    The Cross-Bay Ferry docks at the Tampa Convention Center on its maiden voyage on Nov. 1, 2016. A regional premium transit study will determine whether a ferry, or other options such as express buses or light rail, would be a good addition to Tampa Bay. [SCOTT KEELER  |  Times]
  2. Today, a total eclipse of the sun will span the entire United States, crossing from the West Coast to the East Coast, for the first time in 99 years. (Dreamstime/TNS)
  3. What is poke? Here's how to make the Hawaiian dish at home

    Cooking

    In Hawaiian, "poke" simply means "to cut."

    Tuna Poke Bowl: For a classic poke bowl, try this recipe with ahi (yellowfin) and only a few other ingredients.
  4. MOSI, SPC, libraries offer safe solar eclipse viewing Monday

    Events

    If you couldn't score some of the hard-to-find eyewear that will let you watch Monday's solar eclipse, have no fear, there are safe viewing choices across the Tampa Bay area.

    Twin Falls High School science teachers Ashley Moretti, left, and Candace Wright, right, use their eclipse shades to look at the sun as they pose for a portrait at Twin Falls High School in Twin Falls, Idaho. The district bought 11,000 pairs of solar glasses, enough for every student and staff member to view the solar eclipse Aug. 21

(Pat Sutphin/The Times-News via AP)
  5. SOCom seeks civilian drone pilots to develop new technology through ThunderDrone

    Macdill

    TAMPA — For the last three years, Nicole Abbett has been using drones as part of her photography business, with clients like the city of Tampa and construction companies.

    Josh Newby, 31, Palm Harbor, of Tampa Drones fly's a drone in England Brothers park, Pinellas Park, 8/25/16. As drone popularity increases as a hobby and business, local governments are navigating a legal grey area- where, when, and how should drone flights be allowed?