Get your bets down on Crist's next move

TALLAHASSEE — The biggest parlor game around town these days is speculating on what Charlie Crist will announce in May: Is he running for the U.S. Senate in 2010 or for a second term as governor?

The vast majority of guessers predict, with little evidence to back it up, that Crist will jump to the Senate even as they wonder how he could walk away from the Governor's Mansion.

"Why? He's got the best job in the world — governor of the state of Florida," said House Speaker Pro Tem Ron Reagan, R-Bradenton.

"I've talked to Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham about this. They both enjoyed serving as governor more than senator," agreed Democratic former state Sen. Steve Geller. But neither Graham, nor Chiles, nor Jeb Bush led Florida in such a rocky time as Crist faces.

Unless the international economic collapse turns around quickly, being one of 100 senators could be far more appealing than holding what may become among the roughest political jobs in the world. Even Gov. Crist's infectious optimism can't mask the grim picture many Florida leaders see ahead for the state.

State lawmakers expect that new revenue estimates due later this month will add at least $1 billion to Florida's budget hole. Next year is likely to be even tougher, and Republican Senate President Jeff Atwater said the state could still be $6 billion in the red three years from now, even with painful budget cuts now.

"I hope I'm wrong," said Atwater, a banker from North Palm Beach. "I hope we're coming out of this stronger and faster. … (but) My life experience is crunching numbers and I'm just looking at numbers."

Once the federal stimulus money runs out in two years, legislators will have less leeway to avoid brutal budget decisions. And if a significant hurricane hits Florida, today's tough fiscal picture will look like a picnic.

It seems nobody really knows whether Crist will run for the Senate. It's striking, though, that some of those closest to him doubt he will.

"It comes down to where can he best serve Florida. If the problems that need to be solved are in Washington, I as a Floridian would want strong representation in Washington," said state Republican chairman Jim Greer. "If Charlie Crist happens to become a United States senator, he won't become one of 100 senators. He will be one of the leading senators. He will stand out among his colleagues as he has stood out among all the governors across this country."

His decision will depend in large part on what happens over the next 60 days in Tallahassee. Once the session ends, can Crist say with a straight face that Florida is on solid-enough footing for him to move on?

It's no secret the White House remains on Crist's radar, and governors tend to make better presidential candidates than senators.

There's another factor for Crist that many people talk about: Carole Crist, his new wife. If she'd prefer Washington to Tallahassee, as Crist friends and acquaintances speculate, it could be the most important factor of all.

Crist, 52, has not exactly led a conventional life, after all. Most of his adulthood has been devoted to public office, and little else. No private-sector job, no mortgage, no wife, no kids.

Maybe, just maybe, if Crist moves to Washington to make his new family happy, it would mean his priorities are exactly where they should be.

Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or (727)893-8241.