How often do the final polls of a presidential campaign match up to the results? Fairly often, actually. We looked at every election in the modern era and found only a few exceptions to national and Florida polling. The most notable was President Gerald Ford's loss to Jimmy Carter in 1976. In the final Gallup poll, Ford held a small margin in the popular vote. Of course, presidents are elected by the Electoral College, with 270 needed to win. (See Bush-Gore, 2000.)
Compiled by Caryn Baird and Amy Hollyfield, Times staff writers
1960 | John F. Kennedy (D) vs. Richard Nixon (R)
Gallup national poll: Kennedy 49%, Nixon 48%
Winner: Kennedy (Nixon wins Florida)
Popular vote: Kennedy 49.7%, Nixon 49.5%
Electoral College: Kennedy 303, Nixon 219
Note: Democrat Harry F. Byrd earned 15 electoral votes.
1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson (D) vs. Barry Goldwater (R)
Gallup national poll: Johnson 64%, Goldwater 29%
Winner: Johnson (Johnson wins Florida)
Popular vote: Johnson 61.1%, Goldwater 38.5%
Electoral College: Johnson 486, Goldwater 52
1968 | Richard Nixon (R) vs. Hubert Humphrey (D)
Gallup national poll: Nixon 42%, Humphrey 40%
Winner: Nixon (Nixon wins Florida)
Popular vote: Nixon 43.4%, Humphrey 42.7%
Electoral College: Nixon 301, Humphrey 191
Note: Independent George Wallace earned 45 electoral votes and 13.5% of the popular vote.
1972 | Richard Nixon (R) vs. George McGovern (D)
Gallup national poll: Nixon 61%, McGovern 35%
Winner: Nixon (Nixon wins Florida)
Popular vote: Nixon 60.7%, McGovern 37.5%
Electoral College: Nixon 520, McGovern 17
1976 | Jimmy Carter (D) vs. Gerald Ford (R)
Gallup national poll: Ford 47%, Carter 46%
Winner: Carter (Carter wins Florida)
Popular vote: Carter 50.1%, Ford 48%
Electoral College: Carter 297, Ford 240
1980 | Ronald Reagan (R) vs. Jimmy Carter (D)
Gallup national poll: Reagan 46%, Carter 43%
Winner: Reagan (Reagan wins Florida)
Popular vote: Reagan 50.7%, Carter 41%
Electoral College: Reagan 489, Carter 49
Note: National Union candidate John Anderson won 6.6% of the popular vote
1984 | Ronald Reagan (R) vs. Walter Mondale (D)
Gallup national poll: Reagan 57%, Mondale 39%
Florida poll: Reagan 57%, Mondale 34%
Winner: Reagan (Reagan wins Florida, and every state except Minnesota)
Popular vote: Reagan 58.8%, Mondale 40.6%
Electoral College: Reagan 525, Mondale 13
1988 | George H.W. Bush (R) vs. Michael Dukakis (D)
Gallup national poll: Bush 53%, Dukakis 41%
Florida poll: Bush 58%, Dukakis 36%
Winner: Bush (Bush wins Florida)
Popular vote: Bush 53.4%, Dukakis 45.6%
Electoral College: Bush 426, Dukakis 111
1992 | Bill Clinton (D) vs. George H.W. Bush (R)
Gallup national poll: Clinton 49%, Bush 37%
Florida poll: Bush 40%, Clinton 37%
Winner: Clinton (Bush wins Florida)
Popular vote: Clinton 43%, Bush 37.4%
Electoral College: Clinton 370, Bush 168
Note: Independent H. Ross Perot won 18.9% of the popular vote
1996 | Bill Clinton (D) vs. Robert Dole (R)
Gallup national poll: Clinton 48%, Dole 40%
Florida poll: Clinton 46%, Dole 42%
Winner: Clinton (Clinton wins Florida)
Popular vote: Clinton 49.2%, Dole 40.7%
Electoral College: Clinton 379, Dole 159
Note: Reform candidate H. Ross Perot won 8.4% of the popular vote
2000 | George W. Bush (R) vs. Al Gore (D)
Gallup national poll: Bush 47%, Gore 45%
Florida poll: Bush 46%, Gore 44%
Winner: Bush (Bush wins Florida by 537 votes)
Popular vote: Gore 48.4%, Bush 47.9%
Electoral College: Bush 271, Gore 266
Note: Green candidate Ralph Nader won 2.7% of the popular vote
2004 | George W. Bush (R) vs. John Kerry (D)
Gallup national poll: Bush 49%, Kerry 47%
Florida poll: Bush 49%, Kerry 45%
Winner: Bush (Bush wins Florida)
Popular vote: Bush 50.7%, Kerry 48.3%
Electoral College: Bush 286, Kerry 251
2008 | Barack Obama (D) vs. John McCain (R)
Gallup national poll: Obama 53%, McCain 42%
Florida poll: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
Winner: Obama (Obama wins Florida)
Popular vote: Obama 52.9%, McCain 45.7%
Electoral College: Obama 365, McCain 173
Note: Florida polling not available before 1984.
Sources: Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Gallup International, the American Presidency Project.
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