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In Colorado, fight for U.S. Senate shows Obama factor in midterms

 
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., left, and his opponent U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., greet the studio audience at the start of a televised debate at 9News in Denver, on Wednesday. [Associated Press]
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., left, and his opponent U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., greet the studio audience at the start of a televised debate at 9News in Denver, on Wednesday. [Associated Press]
Published Oct. 19, 2014

DENVER — Tall, handsomely rugged and sporting black cowboy boots, U.S. Sen. Mark Udall is a portrait of confidence. "We're going to shock a lot of the pundits out there saying, 'Oh, we think Colorado is slipping away,' " he told supporters gathered in a parking lot before the final debate of the election.

He bragged about a huge volunteer army and ripped Republican opponent Cory Gardner as too extreme on everything from abortion to climate change to gay marriage. Yet, as the bluegrass band started up and the candidate charged off to debate Wednesday evening, there was a nagging feeling in the crowd, disbelief that it had come to this: The Democrat, who began 2014 looking like he would walk to a second term, is struggling.

"I can't figure it out," sighed April Martinez, 46, who spent the past three Saturdays going door-to-door for Udall. "People just seem pretty apathetic right now."

"I'm very worried, and I can't understand why it's so close," said Dave Sandhu, 49, an accountant wearing a Udall sticker. "Look at the Colorado economy, we're leading the nation. There are so many good things we can say about Colorado and Sen. Udall and it's getting lost."

Colorado is among the closest races in the country, one of a handful that will decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate, an outcome that will set Washington's agenda for the next two years and could have profound implications for President Barack Obama, who has had to contend with a GOP House since 2010.

It matters in Florida, too. Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat, will take over the powerful Commerce Committee next year, but only if his party staves off defeat. Republicans need to pick up six seats, and most election models show that within grasp. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio, Republicans eyeing a run for president in 2016, have put their imprint on the race as well. Both have raised money for Gardner and an ad running on TV here features Bush talking up the candidate, in fluent Spanish.

More than anything, Udall's woes are tied to Obama, whose popularity has hit a new low nationally, adding to what is historically a tough midterm climate for the party in the White House. Nationally, Obama's approval rating is at 40 percent, according to a new Washington Post poll; it's even lower in Colorado.

"It's a pretty stunning turnaround and it's palpable," said Bob Beauprez, a Republican running neck-and-neck with Gov. John Hickenlooper despite the strengthening economy.

• • •

The same is playing out in the other key contests, which include Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina. Republicans are aided by strong candidates and circumstance — Sandhu, the man at the rally, fretted that even the Obama administration's response to ISIS and Ebola could hurt Udall. The party and groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce got involved in primary contests to defeat candidates who have either been outside the mainstream or gaffe-prone, qualities readily available in some recent GOP contenders.

Gardner nudged aside a weaker Republican to face Udall and has been on message, blasting Udall for voting lockstep with Obama. During the debate, Udall parried those attacks with his own, repeatedly saying Gardner has the 10th-most conservative voting record in the U.S. House, where he was elected in the 2010 tea party wave.

Now Udall, first elected with Obama in 2008, must put together a coalition that lifted Obama over the top twice in this increasingly important swing state: women and minorities, chiefly Hispanics, who make up an increasing share of the electorate. It worked for Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in 2010, who was losing in the polls but squeezed out victory. Udall's team has built on Obama's sophisticated method of identifying and tracking voters.

"We're counting on the ground game," said Jeff Haley, 75, a volunteer who attended the pre-debate rally. His wife, Gale, said she had seen more enthusiasm among Democrats than in past midterm elections. "Even when I'm making persuasion calls, I haven't had anybody bring up Obama. That surprises me."

Just don't let Obama get close.

Udall skipped a fundraiser Obama held for him here this summer, offering up the feeble excuse that he was needed in Washington to vote on the next head of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Obama has traveled only to safely Democratic states this fall but gave Republicans ammunition during a stop at Northwestern University in Illinois when he declared that while he is not on the ballot, his policies are — "every single one of them."

Udall, an Intelligence Committee member, is playing up one of his few distinct differences with Obama, criticism of the National Security Agency's domestic spying. A new ad on the topic began playing last week and refers to Udall as a "maverick." During a recent debate he sparked laughter from the audience by declaring, "The White House, when they look down the front lawn, the last person they want to see coming is me."

Gardner, a 40-year-old lawyer from Yuma, was a late entry in the race and instantly changed the dynamic. He can be robotic on stage, spitting out practiced lines, but in person he is affable and energetic. His smile rarely retracts. His hair is perfect. He calls himself a "new kind of Republican," but struggles to define what that means. "We need to stand for more things," he said in an interview after an energy forum in a Denver suburb.

Udall, 64, and his allies have been relentless on TV casting Gardner as out of step on abortion and other issues affecting women. Half of the Democrats' ads have focused on such issues, though watching TV it seems like much more. Overall spending in the race has exceeded $48 million, all but $10 million from outside groups. But has Udall overreached? The Denver Post, in a surprise endorsement of Gardner, criticized Udall for running an "obnoxious one-issue campaign," and he has been nicknamed "Mark Uterus."

Undeterred, the candidate keeps releasing the ads, and he has brought in surrogates to appeal to women. Hillary Clinton, who like Bush and Rubio is looking at 2016 and eager to visit a key state, showed up to campaign with Udall on Monday, and he campaigned Friday in Boulder with Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Michelle Obama also is coming.

Gardner has blunted some of the attacks. Earlier this year he disavowed support for "personhood" legislation that would ban all types of abortion and he recently proposed making birth control available over-the-counter. Debate moderators on Wednesday called out Gardner for being disingenuous in describing his support for the abortion legislation, as he made it seem like it was a general expression of feeling on the issue not an actual bill.

Most polls still show Gardner with a slight edge.

"If he wins in a difficult swing state like this, he'll become the model for Republicans nationwide," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent pollster based in Denver. "If they fail, it would be a very bad sign for Republicans," he added, as the party looks to the presidential election.

• • •

Colorado's political landscape has shifted blue with the influx of residents from states such as California and Oregon. According to a recent analysis by the New York Times, Colorado has "gained twice as many migrants from blue states as from red since 2000, and blue-state expats now make up 12 percent of the population."

Another factor is the fast-growing Hispanic vote. Polls show Udall far ahead, but turnout is a question and disappointment with Obama's failure on comprehensive immigration reform is easily uncovered. "He promised he was going to do something and he hasn't done much," said Eva Parra, 24, of Denver, who voted for Obama and plans to sit out the elections this year.

In a heavily Hispanic neighborhood of southwest Denver, several residents said they had received more mail from Gardner than Udall. The Republican National Committee, which has been trying to address the party's shortcomings in national elections, has dispatched staff here specifically for Hispanic outreach.

Carla Castedo, state director for Mi Familia Vota, a nonpartisan group that is seen as allied with Democrats, acknowledged some Hispanics feel disillusioned but said the volunteers were stressing the stakes. "The Latino vote will be the deciding factor," she said. The group has registered about 10,000 voters this year.

Gardner says he supports immigration reform including a path to citizenship, but only for those who serve in the military. But he also voted with House Republicans to end Obama's program to give legal status to young immigrants known as Dreamers. When it came up for a final vote he voted the other way. And while Gardner blames Democrats for not getting immigration done while they had full control of Congress, his GOP has blocked a comprehensive bill the Senate passed last year with bipartisan support.

"It says we can't count on him," said Oscar Juarez, a Dreamer in Longmont, 40 minutes north of Denver.

In the end, though, the race may come down to one thing: Obama.

"He's lost confidence and we see it all over," said Laurie Swetnam, 61, of Golden, an independent who voted twice for the president and backed Udall in 2008. Now she is not sure, swayed by Gardner's message that Udall is too closely aligned with the president, citing the health care law. She is also turned off by Udall's hammering of women's issues.

"It's old news."

The 9 o'clock news after the debate, however, was full of Udall's commercials blasting Gardner on that very point.

Contact Alex Leary at aleary@tampabay.com. Follow @learyreports.