Friday, November 24, 2017
Politics

Poll: Obama got big share of Cuban-American vote, won among other Florida Hispanics

RECOMMENDED READING


President Barack Obama nearly won the solidly Republican Cuban-American vote in Florida and rolled up huge margins with every other Hispanic group in the state, according to an exit poll performed by a firm that worked for his campaign.

Obama won Cuban-Americans who voted on Election Day, taking 53 percent of their vote compared to 47 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, who built up a lead among those who cast absentee and early in-person ballots, according to the survey of 4,866 voters conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International.

Romney narrowly carried Cuban-Americans, 52 to 48 percent, which is a decrease for Republicans when compared to 2008.

"Obama is picking the Republican lock in Florida," Fernand Amandi said, noting that Hispanics are Florida's fastest-growing segment of the electorate.

But some conservatives doubt the numbers, accusing the firm of undersampling Republican precincts, which Bendixen & Amandi denies.

"Like every election cycle, Sergio Bendixen, who is infamously known for the inaccuracy of his polls, is once again peddling inaccurate exit polling data about Cuban-American voting trends," Mauricio Claver-Carone, executive director of Cuba Democracy Advocates, wrote on his Capitol Hill Cubans blog.

But Bendixen points out that his bottom-line exit-poll numbers mirror the figures from the exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the news media, which found Obama winning the overall Hispanic vote 60 to 39 percent over Romney.

In Bendixen's poll, Florida Hispanics broke 61 to 39 percent in Obama's favor — a one-point difference from Edison. Edison's poll indicated Obama may have won the Cuban-American vote, 49 to 47 percent, but the results were well within the survey's error margin.

Florida's second-largest Hispanic group, Puerto Ricans, gave Obama out-sized support over Romney, 83 to 17 percent in Bendixen's survey.

"This is an ominous, ominous sign for Republicans," Amandi said. His partner, Sergio Bendixen, added that "Puerto Ricans in Florida are voting like Puerto Ricans in New York … solidly Democratic."

Bendixen & Amandi produced Obama's Spanish-language ads and consulted for the campaign. This exit poll, they said, was conducted independently of the Obama campaign. They surveyed voters on Election Day as well as during early in-person voting and by phone for those who cast absentee ballots. The exit poll was conducted in six counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Osceola and Hillsborough.

Absentee-ballot voters, who tend to be older than the rest of the electorate, were the least likely to back Obama when it came to Cuban-American voters. They backed Romney 74 to 26 percent over Obama.

The fight for the Hispanic vote was particularly pronounced in Florida, with the Romney campaign airing a scorcher of a Spanish-language ad late in the election that featured Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro's niece speaking in favor of Obama.

The Obama campaign hit back with an ad featuring former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz that accused Romney of trying to exploit the "suffering" of Cuban-Americans.

The "offensive" Romney ad may have backfired when it came to Venezuelan voters, Bendixen said.

Venezuelans, a fast-growing group, backed Obama over Romney 76 to 24 percent, which tracked the overall results for South Americans, who accounted for just under a quarter of the Hispanic voters interviewed.

Central-Americans supported Obama over Romney 74 to 26.

Would Florida Sen. Marco Rubio help bring Hispanics into the Republican fold as a future candidate? Bendixen said it is too early to tell.

But, he said, former Gov. Jeb Bush, who is fluent in Spanish and has cautioned his party about the tenor of its immigration debate, is a different story.

"If Jeb runs, it would challenge these numbers," Bendixen said.

Florida's elections results aren't final yet but the Hispanic role in the election is clear.

"If Barack Obama wins Florida it will be only and strictly and decisively because of the Hispanic vote," Amandi said.

Comments
President Trump presents his report card, passes with flying colors

President Trump presents his report card, passes with flying colors

PALM BEACH — President Donald Trump has a Thanksgiving Day message for the nation: Look at all I’ve done. Trump is telling followers in an early-morning holiday tweet that, "your Country is starting to do really well." He says: Jobs are "coming back,...
Published: 11/23/17
As rules change, many Florida immigrants face a choice: Do they stay or go?

As rules change, many Florida immigrants face a choice: Do they stay or go?

Lys Isma was born in Haiti, but she’s used to driving in Miami with a license, going to college and living without fear of being deported.The Florida International University biology student has lived in Florida since she was 9 months old. Undocument...
Published: 11/22/17

Top Trump staffers failed to file financial reports on their way out the door

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s top aides — including chief of staff Reince Priebus and foreign policy adviser Sebastian Gorka — failed to file legally required financial reports after they were dismissed this summer, according to government re...
Published: 11/22/17
William March: Lee says lieutenant governor should work for a living and get a vote

William March: Lee says lieutenant governor should work for a living and get a vote

It’s an old joke that Florida’s lieutenant governor, with no duties specified in the state Constitution except to fill in if the governor is disabled or dies, has little to do except monitor the governor’s health. State Sen. Tom Lee, R-Thonotosassa, ...
Published: 11/22/17
Trump calls father of freed UCLA player an ‘ungrateful fool’

Trump calls father of freed UCLA player an ‘ungrateful fool’

Associated PressPALM BEACH — President Donald Trump started off his first day of Thanksgiving vacation by resuming his taunts of the father of a UCLA basketball player detained for shoplifting in China, saying Wednesday that he was an "ungrateful foo...
Published: 11/22/17
Trump speaks up for Moore, warns against his ‘liberal’ rival

Trump speaks up for Moore, warns against his ‘liberal’ rival

WASHINGTON — Silent for more than a week, President Donald Trump all but endorsed embattled Alabama Republican Senate nominee Roy Moore, discounting the sexual assault allegations against him and insisting repeatedly that voters must not support Moor...
Published: 11/22/17
Trump offers support for Moore in Alabama Senate race despite misconduct allegations

Trump offers support for Moore in Alabama Senate race despite misconduct allegations

WASHINGTON - President Donald Trump on Tuesday appeared to offer support to Republican candidate Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate race, saying the former state judge "totally denies" allegations that he sexually molested underage girls years ago."He d...
Published: 11/21/17
Before budget ax fell, Visit Florida executives ran up hefty travel bills

Before budget ax fell, Visit Florida executives ran up hefty travel bills

TALLAHASSEE — Gov. Rick Scott’s tourism chiefs at Visit Florida spend a lot of public money taking trips to exotic places to promote Florida as a top worldwide destination.Four former top-level staff members at the state’s tourism promotion and its c...
Published: 11/20/17
Updated: 11/21/17
2nd woman accuses Sen. Al Franken of inappropriate touching

2nd woman accuses Sen. Al Franken of inappropriate touching

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — A second woman has accused Minnesota Sen. Al Franken of inappropriate touching.Lindsay Menz tells CNN that Franken placed his hand on her bottom as they posed for a photo at the Minnesota State Fair in 2010, two years into Fran...
Published: 11/20/17
Senator Nelson on tax reform bill: Small business will ‘get it in the neck.’

Senator Nelson on tax reform bill: Small business will ‘get it in the neck.’

TAMPA — A week ahead of the expected vote on a controversial tax reform bill, U.S. Sens. Bill Nelson and Ron Wyden, D-Ore., visited Tampa to deliver a message to small businesses: This bill will hurt you."Small businesses are the economic engine of F...
Published: 11/19/17
Updated: 11/20/17