Polls show U.S. Senate race between Nelson, Mack is a tie in Florida

In one of the most competitive Senate contests in the nation, Democrat Bill Nelson is in for the tightest race of his U.S. Senate career against Rep. Connie Mack, two new polls show.

Mack leads Nelson by 1 percentage point — essentially a tie — in Quinnipiac University's latest poll. But Nelson leads Mack by 4 points — close to a tie — in a Marist College survey released along with Quinnipiac's survey on Thursday.

The two polls differ in their results because they have different methods of gauging the electorate. The Marist poll could have oversampled Democrats by about 3 percentage points and the Quinnipiac poll could have undersampled Democrats by a wider margin.

But pollsters agree the race is pretty much a tie and that the numbers will change.

"This is a slugfest," said Marist College pollster Lee Miringoff. "Stay tuned."

The Marist poll, which has a 3-point error margin, shows Nelson over Mack by a 46-42 percent spread.

Quinnipiac's poll shows Mack over Nelson by a 42-41 percent spread. That's well within the poll's 2.4-point error margin. But it bodes badly for Nelson, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac's polling institute.

"If I were Bill Nelson, I'd be a very unhappy camper," Brown said. "He's an incumbent, and he's only got 41 percent."

Nelson has been nicknamed one of the luckiest Democrats in Florida for facing the highly unpopular former Secretary of State Katherine Harris in 2006. He was first elected to the Senate in 2000, a Democrat-heavy year.

An exceedingly cautious campaigner, Nelson champions highly popular causes — like the BP oil-spill cleanup — and has a knack for avoiding the spotlight on controversial issues, like the president's health care plan.

In a sign of Nelson's relatively low profile, the Quinnipiac poll found that nearly a third of Florida voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion. About 39 percent view him favorably and 28 percent unfavorably.

Half of the poll respondents didn't know enough of Mack. About 32 percent view him favorably and 16 percent unfavorably.

Mack's name, though, is well-known. His father was a popular U.S. senator and his great-grandfather was a baseball legend.

As a result, Mack is crushing his Republican rivals in the Republican primary. He garners 40 percent of the Republican vote compared to 7 percent for former Sen. George LeMieux and 8 percent for businessman Mike McCalister, the Quinnipiac poll finds. LeMieux accused Mack of "running a campaign of deception" to "trick voters into believing he's his father."

The Quinnipiac poll also showed Gov. Rick Scott's job approval rating above 40 percent for the first time. Forty-one percent of respondents approved of his job performance, while 46 percent disapproved.

Polls show U.S. Senate race between Nelson, Mack is a tie in Florida 05/24/12 [Last modified: Thursday, May 24, 2012 11:16pm]

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