Florida's welfare rolls just keep growing

TAMPA — With a 4-year-old son to mother and college classes to begin soon, Daphon Baker is having trouble finding a part-time job.

Baker, 18, said she has looked for work at nearly every clothing and grocery store in the area, but there are few openings and a swollen applicant pool.

"I'm trying to provide for my family, my son, and I don't want to go without," she said, "so I'm depending on the state's help."

With the nation in recession, Baker has lots of company.

Florida's welfare rolls grew 15.2 percent over the past year, according to the latest data, a trend many economists say will continue even after the recession ebbs.

More than 56,700 families received state welfare aid in July. That's up from 49,257 families during the same month last year, state data shows.

Hillsborough County is home to more than 10 percent of the recipients.

The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, colloquially called welfare, provides monthly payments to two types of families.

The first group receives the money on behalf of a child, often a relative in the family's care. The second group includes families with an adult whose income falls below the federal poverty level.

Though the second group of recipients is smaller, data shows its recent growth has been much more rapid. In the past year, the number of Florida families with welfare-eligible adults soared almost 56 percent.

That means at the start of the month, there were 18,573 families with an out-of-work adult who had no other means of support for his or her household. In July 2008, that number was 11,914.

"What we are seeing is what we expect to see," said Don Winstead, deputy secretary of Florida's Department of Children and Families. "Given the economic situation in the state, you would expect to see more working-age adults with children needing help."

Florida has become accustomed to tough economic indicators. Unemployment hit its highest point in 34 years last month. Growth has stalled, and foreclosure continues to shutter thousands of homes each month.

Welfare trends lag behind other statistics, economists say, so the data did not immediately reflect the recession. Even as the economy spiraled downward, welfare rates continued to drop well into 2007.

But a rising number of out-of-work Floridians have come to rely on the program as the period of joblessness outlasts unemployment benefits. Congress extended those benefits for up to a year-and-a-half in some cases, but for many, it hasn't been enough.

Other welfare applicants, like Baker, have not worked long enough to receive unemployment benefits, and a dearth of jobs has complicated the search.

"I've been trying to find a job since my junior year in high school," Baker said. "I'm very much at the bottom of the list for hiring."

Jennifer Lange oversees Florida's welfare program. She is the director of ACCESS, which stands for Automated Community Connection to Economic Self-Sufficiency. The organization also runs the state's food stamp and Medicaid eligibility programs.

Lange said the rise in applicants has put a strain on state coffers, but an influx of millions in federal stimulus money has allowed her office to meet the demand.

Welfare benefits cost the state $13.5 million in July, Lange said. Winstead estimates the welfare program will need about $85 million in federal stimulus help over two years.

Economists expect the unemployment rate to stay high even after the recession ends, so a respite does not seem likely in the near future, said University of Florida economics professor David Denslow.

"The surprise would be if the recovery in jobs turns out to be more rapid than economists are expecting," Denslow said. If unemployment remains high or rises after the recession ends, he said, the welfare rolls could continue to expand.

Florida is one of the states most vulnerable to this scenario.

Construction was key to the state's economy, but the collapsed housing market has left the industry among the most shaken. Even as other industries recuperate, it may remain weak, said Randall Holcombe, an economics professor at Florida State University.

"In Florida, because of the real estate issues, we may see a slower recovery," he said. "I'd expect our tourism industry to bounce back before construction."

Economists vary widely on when the national market will generate more jobs. Optimists predict within the next year. A more grim outlook postulates as late as 2012.

Steven Overly can be reached at soverly@sptimes.com or (813) 226-3435.