Florida may be falling from Obama's grasp

Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America's biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state.

Obama can still win Florida despite the polling gains McCain has made since naming Sarah Palin his running mate, and there is no sign Obama is pulling back in Florida yet. Far from it. Obama allies say he has about 350 paid staffers in the state and about 50 field offices, including in places not known as fertile ground for Democrats, such as Sun City Center, Lake City and Sebring.

But for all the attention to Florida from the Obama campaign, there's little tangible evidence it's paying off.

He is farther behind in the state than John Kerry was at this point in 2004, even though McCain began buying Florida TV ads only last week. By this time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV. In the rolling average of Florida polls compiled by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com, Obama has never taken the lead over McCain in Florida, and the latest average shows him behind by 5 percentage points. They were tied in early August.

Four Florida polls came out this week, with one showing a tied race, the others showing McCain leading by 5 to 8 percentage points.

"They've had everything going for them — momentum, enthusiasm, money, a complicit national press, a stiff wind at his back for a long time, and he hasn't been able pull ahead in Florida,'' said Republican strategist Alberto Martinez of Tallahassee. "I think Florida is one of those states that's taken off the board pretty soon, as they start focusing resources on states they can win."

"Look, except for a little bounce after the Republican convention this race has basically been anywhere from a dead heat to a two- or three-point race all along,'' said Steve Schale, Obama's Florida campaign manager.

"Our job is to stay focused and continue building the largest and most comprehensive campaign organization this state has ever had. Compared to what McCain has on the ground at this point, our operation is far superior," he said.

The McCain campaign, while sounding a lot more upbeat about Florida than a few weeks ago, takes nothing for granted.

"We're certainly not planting a victory flag. I think Florida will be competitive,'' said Buzz Jacobs, McCain's campaign manager for the Southeast. "But the base of our party is energized like it's never been before. I think we are attracting Democrats and independents into our party at a greater rate than we were a few weeks ago. … We are getting some of those Hillary Clinton supporters especially, and I think the Obama campaign is very worried about that."

McCain is scheduled to campaign in Jacksonville, Orlando and Miami on Monday and hold a rally at the Tampa Convention Center on Tuesday morning. Obama will be in Coral Gables raising money Friday, though no public events are scheduled yet.

"If we don't start seeing more of Obama in Florida it will be a clear sign that, like Bill Clinton in 1992, he will pull his resources out of Florida in the final weeks," said Brian Crowley, a longtime political reporter who is now an analyst in North Palm Beach. "He can still win here, but he needs to focus on the economy and spend a lot time campaigning in Florida, especially among swing voters along the I-4 corridor."

The scope of the Obama investment in Florida to date makes it less likely the campaign will scale back anytime soon, said Karl Koch of Tampa, who helped run the Florida campaigns for Bill Clinton and Al Gore.

"They've invested very heavily in this state, and it's clear to me that investment will pay off on election day,'' said Koch. "To make a decision that denies you the opportunity to put that operation in place I think would be misplaced."

Times staff writer Wes Allison contributed to this report. Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or (727)893-8241.

Comments on this article

by Brandon	Sep 15, 2008 2:24 PM
As I understand it, polling places don't call cell phones. Most younger people I know don't even have a land line. That means they never get a chance to respond to poll calls. I honestly think this does have an effect on the validity of polls.

by Greg

Sep 15, 2008 2:22 PM

As Bill Clinton so aptly said of Obama: "He's simply a typical Chicago thug." America best wake up to the dangers that such a warped individual represents before we let him get anywhere near the White House. It's incredible that the Democrats have nominated Obama, the least qualified and most extreme left, Presidential candidate in American history, for the leadership of the free world. May God protect us. Greg Neubeck

by Lee

Sep 15, 2008 2:22 PM

If your ideal is a guy who had his first political fundraiser at the home of an acknowledged terrorist; who bought his home at a discount from a criminal and then lied about their relationship, who cavorts with Pro-Palestinians like Gen McPeak and Samantha Powers - enemies of Israel and then winks and says "vote for me -I'm a friend of Israel," who wants to dismantle our military, who has a terrorist cousin in Africa and dedicates his book to his deadbeat black father who deserted him and then he disses his white mother and grandmother who stayed and raised him, who sat in church for 20 years listening to his mentor Wright preach hate of America, hate of white people and promulgate black power and racism and then claims he never heard the sermons ; the same preacher who had an adulterous relationship with a member of his congregation ; who chose as his wife a woman who dislikes white people, advocates black power and dislikes her country whi

by Bud	Sep 15, 2008 1:45 PM
There are some posters on this board that believe Obama will win Florida. The bad news is he won't. The good news for them is he will carry the "home" territory of Wexler, their Representative who lives in Maryland not Florida!!

by Jeannie	Sep 15, 2008 1:44 PM
Actually, another title for this article coud have been "Shocking news: Racist, Republican-ruled Florida may be falling into Obama's grasp". Then, the accompanying picture of Palin not knowing what the Bush Doctrine is would make sense.

by corey	Sep 15, 2008 1:44 PM
Thank God Floridians are smart enough to realize that Obama's tax and spend mentality will reach into every American's pockets. Let charity begin at home! The Feds would likely get pennies out of every dollar earmarked to go to the less fortunate.

by wendy	Sep 15, 2008 1:44 PM
I don't want to wake up in January with an inexperienced, green, untested, do-nothing president who lacks any executive experience and whose voting records counts more "presents" than any actual STANDS on issues. The man is smoke & mirrors-period

by wac	Sep 15, 2008 1:42 PM
DID ANYONE EVER REALIZE THAT OBAMA WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO JOIN THE F.B.I. BECAUSE OF HIS PAST RELATIONSHIPS? THINK IT OVER.

by Cindy	Sep 15, 2008 1:42 PM
Geez, why wouldn't you all want to elect another governor from a big oil state? Don't you think that's the best qualification to be president? What's wrong with you?

by Dr_Dug	Sep 15, 2008 1:42 PM
He never had Florida......

by Bobc	Sep 15, 2008 1:42 PM
Hopefully the USA will never elect a Socialist for President! Obama has too many shady characters in his past!

by Tim	Sep 15, 2008 1:42 PM
the early 1920s gave us Coolidge and the roaring 20s well roaring if you were wealthy not if you were middle class or poor. Unfortunately then change didn't occur. We got Hoover for four more years of the same and then the great depression. Wake up!

by Hudson	Sep 15, 2008 1:42 PM
Notice how Mccain/Palin supporters here seem to actually be enthusiastic about their candidate while Obama supporters can only insult everyone who doesnt see things their way. That elitist condecension is why your side is losing this election.

by donald cantrell	Sep 15, 2008 1:42 PM
Wow, the crying and peaing and moaning from the liberals here is bordering on psychotic. Maybe if the press was allowed to asked Odumblo a relevant question he could contrive better lies. Odumblo won't win, face it, he is irrelevant & going away.

by justthinking	Sep 15, 2008 1:42 PM
If this state supports Palin as VP its time to move! She is just a female version of Bush! It looks like she thinks she's above the law too! Plus, she showed no common sense flying for 8 hours in labor instead of going to the hospital in Texas-Awful!

by Peggy	Sep 15, 2008 1:40 PM
I guess people in Florida are happy with the way things have been going the last 8 years. John McCain will bring more of the same. Our country is trillions of dollars in debt, do you want to hand that down to your grandchildren?

by J.D.	Sep 15, 2008 1:40 PM
I do have to admit as an Independent voter i've noticed a swing in the country's assesment on the experience factor of the candidates involved that the Republican ticket has their candidates in the right order of accomplishment & Democrats are wrong.

by James	Sep 15, 2008 1:40 PM
Unless it is a "horse race" there is no story... the St. Pate Times, as with all media, want it to be so - they sell more papers! regardless of whose "ahead" they won't report it as a run away election - nobody would be interested - no copy/no sales

by julie	Sep 15, 2008 1:40 PM
No way No how NO OBAMA/BIDEN !!

by Pat	Sep 15, 2008 1:39 PM
Obama has only been insulting senior citizens for the past several weeks with his ads stating John McCain is too old and out of touch. What does he expect?

by donald cantrell	Sep 15, 2008 1:39 PM
The entire country will be better off if Odumblo would just pull all of his resources out of the country. He should go home (wherever that actually is)& get out of America, no room for commine marxist left wing idiots. Go home black hope.

by ken	Sep 15, 2008 1:39 PM
everyday palins lies and lack of integrity are exposed more and more and the pathetic lie's of mc cain...he wants this presidency at any price....obama is more than ready...this harvard educated...people (middle class) caring person has the abilities

by Ray H	Sep 15, 2008 1:38 PM
Of course south Florida will vote Obie the Marxist and the Gasbag. S. Florida is nothing but a pit of New Yorkers and other northeastern moonbat liberals, not to mention all the voter fraud the Dems are so good at.

by Brian	Sep 15, 2008 1:38 PM
I'm scared. Look at Cindie's comments below. She is voting for McCain because "Obama is not ready". At 73 McCain -if elected -may not complete his term. Palin is "ready", what a joke. If elected, she is one stroke or illness from the presidency-yikes

by Charles	Sep 15, 2008 1:38 PM
Sadly it appears that Obama has injected race into the campaign to an extent that most black-Americans will vote Democrat. Is it possible that the privacy of polling booths will produce a rebound? We tire of the race card; Obama star is descending.

by corey	Sep 15, 2008 1:38 PM
Thank God Floridians are smart enough to realize that Obama's tax and spend mentality will reach into every American's pockets. Let charity begin at home! The Feds would likely get pennies out of every dollar earmarked to go to the less fortunate.

by Theda	Sep 15, 2008 1:37 PM
Go ahead Florida! A vote for McCain will be a vote to keep Cheney and his faithful henchmen Rove in power. What does it take to realize our nation is in deep, deep trouble thanks to these criminals? And you want four more years? Pure insanity!

by Doug	Sep 15, 2008 1:36 PM
"Gas prices near $6 a gallon in parts of Florida" Florida is Obama's for the taking

by nellie	Sep 15, 2008 1:36 PM
I suppose Florida is one of those states whose economy is booming, no lay-offs, no worries. With the republican ticket bostering smaller government, I guess the seniors down their will not mind if their social security checks are privatized.

by Cheryl	Sep 15, 2008 1:36 PM
Obama has this white, middle-class woman's vote!

by Mike	Sep 15, 2008 1:36 PM
Palin and Obama have comparable resumes, so put this unqualified argument to bed. My concern is that BOTH parties have nominated second string candidates on the assumption that they would lose anyway. Does the process eliminate 1st string players?

by Elizabeth	Sep 15, 2008 1:35 PM
I agree that racism plays a large role in this election, especially in Florida. I also hope to leave this horrible state, if I can't manage to escape from the US. The US, which loves stupidity and cruelty, is done for.

by Thorny	Sep 15, 2008 1:35 PM
Forget the polls. The people who will vote Obama in as our next president are busy working 2 to 3 jobs to keep from losing their homes. They don't have time for polls but they will be sure to vote. Bet on it.

by jimmy	Sep 15, 2008 1:35 PM
Florida is a brier patch for Dems. Obama may end up not winning a single state in the south or the mountain west. Dems hitched their wagon to a guy MORE liberal than John Kerry. FDR was the last uber-liberal elected to the White House.

by Tina	Sep 15, 2008 1:34 PM
The DNC is going to regret disenfranchising us. But will they learn from it and trashcan Dean and Wexler? I don't "submit" and "fall in line" to men who tell me I'd better be grateful to do so. That's been the Democratic message to Florida voters.