When Republican Rick Scott ran for governor in 2010, he carried 52 of Florida's 67 counties, yet he barely beat Democrat Alex Sink.
How could that happen?
If you know your country, it's simple: A lot more people in suburbs, small cities and towns vote Republican and a lot more people in big cities vote Democrat.
Those numbers from 2010 are more revealing if you drill a little deeper.
First, Republicans are more likely to vote in nonpresidential election years like 2014 and 2010.
Republicans make up 35 percent of all voters in Florida, Democrats 39 percent. The other 26 percent are mostly registered with no party affiliation. But of those who actually voted in 2010, Republicans made up 44 percent, Democrats 40 percent and the rest 16 percent.
If a similar turnout happens in November, Scott will enjoy four more years in the Governor's Mansion.
Within Florida, some areas are bright red, such as Pensacola, Panama City, Fort Myers and Daytona Beach. Others are deep blue, like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Orlando. And others are purple, like the state as a whole: St. Petersburg, Tampa and Jacksonville.
The best predictor of what might happen between Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist is the 2010 election. No two elections are alike, but here's what happened four years ago:
Voter turnout was higher in more Republican counties than it was in Democratic counties. Statewide turnout was 48.7 percent, but it was higher than that in 41 of the 52 counties Scott won, compared with eight of the 15 counties Sink won.
Democrats are dominant in fewer places, so they have less room for error in a close election.
Democrats won seven counties north of the I-4 corridor: Alachua, Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty and Madison. Alachua and Leon are dominated by liberal state universities, while Gadsden is the only county with a majority black population.
The 2010 results matter for another reason. That was the last time Crist's name was on the ballot, and the numbers reinforce the importance of Broward County to his chances of victory.
Crist, running as an independent U.S. Senate candidate in 2010, finished a weak second to Republican Marco Rubio with 29.7 percent of the statewide vote, but he carried Broward in a three-way race with 36 percent against Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek, both from Miami and part of the same media market as Broward.
Crist's showing in Broward was stronger even than in his home county of Pinellas. That shows that a mother lode of votes awaits Crist in Broward — if people go to the polls.
Republicans have no chance of victory in Broward, so their goal is to make sure Crist does no better than Sink, who got nearly 65 percent of the vote there, by far her greatest share of any large county.
But Broward's turnout in 2010 was 41 percent, or nearly 8 percentage points below the state average. Miami-Dade was not much better, at 41.5 percent.
If voters in those two counties had showed up in numbers even equal to the state average, Sink would have won, which is why this campaign is all about turnout.
Contact Steve Bousquet at bousquet@tampabay.com or (850) 224-7263. Follow @stevebousquet.