After Donald Trump's election, so many people started showing up at monthly Pinellas County Democratic Party meetings, the group had to start forking out more money for a bigger room.
The Orange County Democratic Executive Committee changed venues to accommodate bigger crowds of fired-up Democrats. And within the fast-growing Hillsborough Democratic Party, activists have launched New Tampa and Temple Terrace clubs, the Democratic Progressive Caucus of Tampa Bay and Labor and Caribbean caucuses.
"People are coming out of the woodwork,'' said Palm Beach County Democratic Party chairwoman Terrie Rizzo, a Democratic National Committee member.
The unprecedented surge in grass roots energy and activity should bode well for downtrodden Florida Democrats heading into the 2018 midterms, but it belies a grimmer reality: The state party that won one of the past 13 Florida Cabinet races and zero of the past five governor's races, remains as much of a dark horse as ever, with fundamental questions about resources and competence.
Two recent developments underscore the hurdles facing Florida Democrats.
First, Republican Karen Handel comfortably winning a special congressional election in Georgia, despite $30 million spent against her, showed the limits of the Democrats' angry resistance movement against a GOP base that remains engaged and steadfast.
If that doesn't raise doubts about the electoral potency of the anti-Trump sentiment, look at Florida's all-important I-4 corridor. Since Election Day, the Republican voter registration lead over Democrats in the Tampa and Orlando media markets has risen by more than 41,000 voters. Hillsborough County accounted for nearly a quarter of that gain.
Second, a blowup at a South Florida fundraising dinner over recently elected state Democratic Party chairman Stephen Bittel criticizing black legislators for being "childish" and "playing the race card" affirmed that dysfunction and internal rancor still plague the Democratic Party in America's biggest battleground state.
"If we learned anything from 2016, it's let's talk about the issues that really matter, and other things are distractions. And every time that we have to talk about something that happens at a party event, we're not talking about issues," said Pinellas Democratic Party chairwoman Susan McGrath. "We all know we were not in a good place as a party, but to right a ship that's going in the wrong direction takes a lot of efforts."
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It might seem that Democrats could not sink lower in Florida than they already have, holding no statewide office in Tallahassee and minorities in both legislative chambers. But they could sink lower in 2018.
With a U.S. Senate seat on the line and open seats for every statewide Florida office, this is a potentially game-changing election cycle. Florida Democrats won't have an opportunity like this for at least eight more years, and they can't afford to wait to build the kind of campaign machinery that wins close races in battleground Florida.
Consider the challenges ahead:
• U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, the Sunshine State's last remaining statewide Democrat, is likely to face a re-election challenge from Gov. Rick Scott — a far stronger candidate than Nelson faced in 2012 with then-U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV or in 2006 with then-U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris.
• Democrats are poised to hold their first competitive gubernatorial primary in decades. That could help drive up interest and attention for Democrats, but it also means scarce money will be spent bruising one another in the primary.
• Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, the Republican front-runner for governor, could draw a tough primary, but so far he is raising five to 10 times more money than any of the Democrats — Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham and Winter Park businessman Chris King. Not to mention, Putnam is a much more talented and less polarizing politician than Gov. Scott, who narrowly won both his races.
• The state Democratic Party is rebuilding, virtually from scratch, since self-made millionaire Bittel was elected chairman in January without much sense of what's involved in running a party and hired a new executive director from Idaho. He has yet to live up to predictions that he would be a dynamo money-raiser and has little experience organizing and mobilizing voters, let alone stroking the egos of elected officials and local party officials.
• The party's bench remains so weak, it's a wide-open question whether strong candidates will emerge for every open statewide seat and the potentially competitive legislative seats.
The Tampa Bay Times surveyed nearly 200 veterans of Florida politics, including campaign operatives, fundraisers, lobbyists and grass roots activists, for its latest Florida Insider Poll and found strikingly widespread skepticism about Democratic prospects in 2018.
Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed (41 percent of them registered Democrats) predicted Republicans would win the governor's race in 2018, as well as the three Cabinet offices of agriculture commissioner, chief financial officer and attorney general. Fewer than 1 in 4 were confident the state Democratic Party would raise enough money to wage effective campaigns in 2018, while 86 percent predicted the state GOP would be fine on that front.
The unscientific Florida Insider Polls reflect conventional wisdom among people most familiar with the state's political landscape.
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The good news for Florida Democrats? Two-thirds of those surveyed expect President Donald Trump to be a drag on the Republican ticket in 2018, and 70 percent expect higher Democratic turnout than usual in midterm elections.
"Donald Trump is going to be a lead balloon for Republicans this cycle, and if we can get some good candidate recruitment with a solid message and give voters a reason to vote for us, we will be in good shape," said Ashley Walker, who ran Barack Obama's Florida campaign in 2012. "We just have to keep our heads down and not be distracted."
Reggie Cardozo, a veteran political operative who helped lead Hillary Clinton's 2016 Florida campaign, said the national political landscape is likely to put some wind at Democrats' backs in 2018, but no one knows whether those winds will be 20 mph or 70. State party leaders understand they must raise money quickly — to start registering voters, recruiting, organizing and building a vote-by-mail program — to capitalize on however strong those gusts prove to be.
"We have a climate and an atmosphere where the perfect storm is coming together, and we're going to have opportunities to get some wins in Florida," Cardozo said. "We've just got to make sure we're putting ourselves in position to take advantage."
One key opportunity may be in candidate recruitment, said Steve Schale, another top Democratic consultant.
He led the Democrats' Florida House campaigns in 2006, as the public was turning hard against the wars and George W. Bush's administration. He saw how community leaders normally averse to entering politics can become more receptive when they feel their country or state is in real trouble.
"There are going to be a lot more places that are going to be functionally in play in 2018 than in 2016 or 2014, but to win those races you're going to have extraordinary candidates," said Schale, suggesting that the state party also needs to work hard to "turn all these activists and protesters into volunteers."
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Bittel, 60, was elected Florida Democratic Party chairman in January, thanks largely to support from Nelson, and he now leads a party that has seen tremendous turnover in leadership at the local level. Bittel has been traveling throughout the state talking to activists, donors and elected officials. He hired an energetic executive director, Sally Boynton Brown. They are building what they hope will be a permanent, community-driven organizing infrastructure aimed at nationalizing the 2018 Florida campaign.
"Our 2018 election started the day that chairman Bittel took office. Since then, we've expanded FDP staff and released our 2018 election plan during our Leadership Blue events," Boynton Brown said, referring to the party fundraiser in South Florida last weekend. "The plan lays out a path to engage the newfound energy across our state. The permanent grass roots infrastructure we are building will allow us to make positive impacts in our communities that will last beyond Election Day."
The Florida Democratic Party's primary obstacle is lack of money.
Donors to the state party are dominated by special interests eager to shape government policy. Republicans overwhelmingly control the levers of power in Florida so they tend to overwhelmingly lead Democrats in fundraising. Republicans running for statewide office routinely outspend Democrats by at least 2-to-1, and the advantage is often far greater for Republicans running for the Legislature.
Amid that stark reality, Bittel's fundraising ability remains to be seen. He boasted that he has raised about $2 million to date, but that's about even with four years ago at this stage of the gubernatorial election cycle.
Bittel's background as one of Florida's top Democratic donors enabled him to draw former Vice President Joe Biden to Florida's Leadership Blue dinner, raising an estimated $1 million, though that was overshadowed by the argument he had with state legislators over a last-minute program change.
Among the nearly 200 people participating in our Florida Insider Poll, about 85 percent said Bittel is not a strong and effective leader. Fifty-six percent said the same about Florida GOP chairman Blaise Ingoglia.
Still, Bittel is winning strong marks from local parties for his energy and outreach.
"He's spent six months putting the infrastructure in place, and now I think you're going to see things start to take off," said Hillsborough Democratic chairwoman Ione Townsend.
Optimism remains high among grass roots Democrats because of Trump.
"Just as I start to think this level of enthusiasm can't be sustained, along comes another tweet just as vile and offensive as ever," said Orange County Democratic Party chairman Wes Hodge.
"We have a very heavy lift," Townsend said, "but we also have a lot to be hopeful about. Thank you, Donald Trump."
Contact Adam C. Smith at asmith@tampabay.com. Follow @adamsmithtimes.