Florida's tax collections show signs of uptick

TALLAHASSEE — State economists mostly held steady Tuesday in their forecast of tax collections for the year ahead — meaning lawmakers continue to face a budget shortfall of as much as $3.2 billion.

The state's four-person Revenue Estimating Conference revisited the economic forecast it made in December, concluding that lawmakers will have $56.1 million more than expected for the 2010-11 budget year and $25.3 million in additional money for the current spending year.

The modest shift doesn't change much. But the on-forecast flow of tax collections the past few months indicates that the recession's grinding slide may be nearing an end, said Amy Baker, coordinator of the state's Economic and Demographic Research Office.

"Underlying the forecast is the assumption that the extreme financial and economic stress that began over a year ago has reached its bottom," Baker said.

Baker said forecasters agreed that the relatively small "adjustments to the forecast are indicative of an economy that is stabilizing."

Looking inside the numbers, the conference reported that sales tax collections — which account for the bulk of state general revenue -— have climbed by almost $130 million over the two years reviewed, while insurance premium taxes have ticked upward slightly. Real estate taxes are also generally holding steady, with home and condo sales rising steadily for more than a year — driven by slumping prices.

While the current budget year has reversed three straight years of decline in overall tax collections, the state still has a long road toward recovery. Economists reiterated Tuesday that it will be 2013-14 before revenue levels are expected to top the robust levels of 2005-06 — just before the bottom fell out of the real estate market.

Similarly, the adjustments made Tuesday will do little to ease the pressure on lawmakers looking to make deep budget cuts. While Gov. Charlie Crist last month proposed a $69.2 billion budget fortified by federal stimulus money still tied up in Congress and a gambling compact unresolved by Florida lawmakers, the Legislature is short $3.2 billion in just crafting a budget that meets last year's program demands.