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GOP heavy on potential U.S. Senate candidates, while Democrat are light

 
was elected chairman of the Republican Party of Florida on Saturday, Jan. 17, 2015. [Times files]
was elected chairman of the Republican Party of Florida on Saturday, Jan. 17, 2015. [Times files]
Published Feb. 1, 2015

An open U.S. Senate seat is usually a once-in-a-generation opportunity for ambitious politicians. With Marco Rubio moving toward a presidential run and vowing he would not use his Senate seat as a fallback, 2016 is shaping up to be another huge cycle for political dominoes to tumble in Florida — a state with countless credible Republican contenders and a tiny Democratic bench.

Who's likely to run, and who's not? Time for another Florida Insider Poll, taking the pulse of the most experienced and sophisticated political minds.

Nearly 130 campaign professionals, fundraisers, lobbyists, political scientists and the like underscored how many more options Republicans have than beleaguered Florida Democrats. Still, there was wide agreement on the likely GOP nominee, with 56 percent predicting it will be chief financial officer Jeff Atwater of Palm Beach County.

"Incredibly wide-open field. (Adam) Putnam wants to be governor so I'd be shocked if he ran. There is zero statewide Dem bench but it will be a bloodbath on the right. Especially if (Vern) Buchanan brings his money to bear. Atwater is strong, but I-4 or Miami could produce a sleeper," said one Republican.

Another: "I think a compelling case could be made for Will Weatherford, Jeff Brandes, Tom Lee or David Jolly. Tampa Bay area pols with winning records and funding bases make good candidates. I think most folks see Atwater getting in and are comfortable with that."

Other Republicans mentioned: U.S. Reps. Ron DeSantis, Tom Rooney, and Dan Webster, as well as Jeb Bush, George LeMieux, Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and Allan Bense.

The Democratic side of the equation is much tougher, with only one statewide elected Democrat, Bill Nelson, already serving in the U.S. Senate. The skimpiness of the Democratic bench is underscored with the Florida Insider Poll, with the two most common predictions being little-known newcomers, U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy of Palm Beach County and U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham of Leon County.

"Either Graham or Murphy would be a good candidate for the Dems. To win, the Democrat needs to avoid a primary and hope the Republicans have a messy one," a Democrat said.

Said another: "Bob Buckhorn has been picking out the drapes for the Governor's Mansion since his first day as Tampa mayor. … He won't run for Senate. Alan Grayson and Debbie Wasserman Schultz would compete and split the extreme left wing of the party."

Other Democrats mentioned included Charlie Crist, Kathy Castor, Dan Gelber, Buddy Dyer, Jack Seiler, Philip Levine and Ted Deutch.

For a full list of our Insider Poll participants, go to tampabay.com/buzz.

Latvala criticizes three in FDLE mess

Check out state Sen. Jack Latvala, R-Clearwater, today on Political Connections on Bay News 9, where he sharply criticizes the "three little monkeys" on the Florida Cabinet for their "disingenuous" responses and criticism of Gov. Rick Scott over the ouster of former Florida Department of Law Enforcement chief Gerald Bailey. "Leadership is more than press releases," he says of Atwater, Pam Bondi and Putnam. Political Connections airs at 11 a.m. and 8 p.m.

A few nuggets about past state elections

The University of Florida's graduate program in political campaigning on Friday held its biennial conference examining elections in Florida. Among the interesting tidbits we heard:

• Republicans spent about $128 million to re-elect Gov. Scott and Democrats about $51 million to try to elect Crist, said Crist campaign manager Steve Schale. Three-quarters of the Crist campaign's TV spending went to the Tampa, Orlando, West Palm Beach, Miami and Fort Myers markets, and in those five areas Crist received about 100,000 more votes than Alex Sink did against Scott four years earlier. The problem for Crist? In the other five major TV markets in North Florida, where Scott overwhelmed Crist in TV spending, Crist received about 100,000 fewer votes than Sink despite 500,000 more voters in those areas.

• Abortion rights is nowhere near as potent an issue with millennial women voters (born between 1980 and the mid 2000s) than older female voters, noted USF political scientist Susan MacManus. "We can get birth control, what's the big deal?" MacManus said, summing up the views of many of these younger women.

• Republican media consultant Adam Goodman expects Rubio will vacate his Senate seat to run for president, and the race for his open seat will be like "a chess game where the chess that's being played in '16 is played with an eye to what the board is going to be in '18." He said 2018 will be the mother of all election cycles.

• While Democrats see Florida's growing minority population turning the state bluer, "whites have become more Republican at a faster rate than the demographic changes," said Democratic pollster David Beattie, noting that's especially true in counties with the fastest-growing minority populations. "It is political white flight."