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Marco Rubio gaining ground against Jeb Bush in latest Florida Insider Poll

 
U.S. Congrerssman Ron DeSantis, R
U.S. Congrerssman Ron DeSantis, R
Published May 31, 2015

Florida's political elites are fast revising their views about the strength of presidential candidates Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, with perceptions of Rubio dramatically improving and Bush's slipping, according to our latest exclusive Florida Insider Poll.

Five months ago, nine out of 10 of the veteran Florida politicos surveyed in the Tampa Bay Times Florida Insider Poll said Bush would be a stronger general election candidate than Rubio, and one month ago nearly eight in 10 said the same thing. Last week? Just 52 percent of the more than 120 political insiders said Bush would be the stronger nominee against Hillary Clinton, while 48 percent named Rubio.

"Marco Rubio is doing what many said was impossible 6 mos. ago — slowly edging Jeb Bush out in Florida, who struggles to find his mo-jo," wrote one Republican.

From another: "It's not that I believe that Marco should be the nominee, it's just what I sense is occurring at the base. Jeb is ready for this and would make a terrific president. Just not sure a large enough chunk of my party agrees with me on that AS OF TODAY."

But the 123 people surveyed last week — campaign professionals, lobbyists, fundraisers, political scientists — are not nearly so divided on the question of who is likely to win the Florida primary: 70 percent predicted Bush would win, and 30 percent said Rubio.

"The Republican Party may be a lot of things, but unpredictable is not one of them," said a Democrat. "Jeb Bush continues to dominate fundraising and will have the money to create an image that will attract voters."

These polls are unscientific surveys that represent emerging conventional wisdom from people who know Florida politics best. Many of the people participating have worked with or are currently working with candidates we're asking about, particularly Bush. Since our last poll, Rubio formally kicked off his campaign, and Bush struggled for a week to give a clear answer on whether in hindsight he thought invading Iraq was a good move.

"I have been surprised at the grass roots support for Rubio and the lack of enthusiasm for Bush," said one insider registered to neither major party. "The longer Bush fails to generate strong support in Republican polls, the more difficult will be his path to the nomination."

This month's Florida insiders included 44 Democrats, 69 Republicans and 10 others. They are listed on The Buzz online at tbtim.es/buzz.

Establishment support for Ron DeSantis

The common shorthand description for Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ron DeSantis, the congressman from northeast Florida, is that he's a tea party favorite. That's true, but today DeSantis is rolling out some top-tier Florida fundraisers that show he also has considerable support in the GOP establishment as well:

John W. Childs of Vero Beach; Jay Demetree of Jacksonville; Gay and Stanley Gaines of Palm Beach; Robert Grammig of Tampa; Joseph G. Fogg III of Naples; Jim France of Daytona Beach; Lee Hanley of Palm Beach; Mori Hosseini of Daytona Beach; Elizabeth and John Kagan of Fort Myers; Tom Kukk of Naples; former Gov. Bob Martinez of Tampa; Carlyn and Lothar Mayer of Boca Raton; Mac McGehee of Jacksonville; Ambassador John Rood of St. Johns; Ambassador Francis Rooney of Naples; Russ Thomas of Ponte Vedra Beach.

Summit is a purely Rick Scott production

Gov. Rick Scott will be front and center before the national media Tuesday as he hosts his Economic Growth Summit at Disney World, where most of the top-tier presidential candidates will be talking about the vision for growing the economy.

Overlooked on this high profile cattle call is how the entire thing was put together through Scott's political committee, Let's Get to Work, rather than the state GOP. This is unprecedented and a reminder that the leading elected Republican in Florida still has a rocky — at best — relationship with the Republican Party of Florida. It has been that way since party officials snubbed him early this year by electing state Rep. Blaise Ingoglia the party chairman, rather than Scott's preferred candidate.

Traditionally, the state party has used the events featuring presidential candidates to raise money through sponsorships, speaking fees, and the like, that ultimately helps pay for the Republican nominee's general election campaign in Florida.

But Brecht Heuchan, who is helping Let's Get to Work put together the event, said the summit is different from party events in the past — Presidency I, II, III, IV and V, for instance — because it includes no straw poll and is not a rally. It is more focused on one issue, jobs, he said, and Let's Get to Work is raising no money off the event.

Ingoglia, who won't be there, said he had no hard feelings:

"Economic growth and opportunity is an important issue to every American, and we applaud Gov. Scott for his leadership in organizing this summit."