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Rubio gains, and critics come at him

 
Published Sept. 30, 2015

As Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the DNC prepared for a conference call Wednesday to bash Marco Rubio's family leave proposal, Donald Trump tweeted a story about how Rubio has been propped up by Miami billionaire Norman Braman.

"Anyone reading this profile of Marco Rubio would never vote for him. Never made ten cents & is totally controlled!" Trump tweeted.

Welcome back to the spotlight, Mr. Rubio.

Rubio's strong debate performance and growing enthusiasm from supporters in early states has brought more attention — and scrutiny. He has tried to keep a lower profile to avoid the attacks Jeb Bush has endured, but that balance will become increasingly more difficult as the GOP field narrows.

In the conference call, Democrats went after Rubio's proposal to give businesses a tax credit if they provide family leave. It "wouldn't do a thing," Wasserman Schultz charged, noting the proposal leaves it up to businesses to decide. Democratic proposals would create a mandate.

"The United States remains the only industrialized nation without a paid leave requirement," Wasserman Schultz said.

The Florida lawmaker cited a poll showing 80 percent of Americans support requiring companies to provide paid leave, and she threw in a dig about Rubio missing Senate votes to campaign (an attack Trump has stepped up, joined in by Breitbart News). Rubio this week has missed votes on the short-term government funding measure.

Signs of strength?

Forget the notoriously unreliable early state and national polls in September and October, says the Bush campaign. The far more reliable predictors of nominating success at this early stage, senior Bush adviser David Kochel says, are major endorsements — a sign of viability and organizational strength — and the prediction markets. In all areas, Bush has maintained a comfortable lead.

But take a look at those prediction markets. Much of the media attention may be on Trump, Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson, but the online oddsmakers and bettors seem to think that's just noise and the real race is Bush vs. Rubio.

The aggregation site Predictwise gives Bush a 32 percent chance of winning, Rubio 26 percent, and Trump 11 percent. On the popular PredictIt site, Rubio is trading stronger than Bush.

Top TV spenders

Bush is the top TV ad spender, with Rubio also among the leaders, according to the tracking firm SMG Delta. Per NBC News' First Read:

• Team Bush: $5.4 million ($5 million from the Right to Rise super PAC, $400K from the campaign)

• Team John Kasich: $4.9 million (all in N.H.)

• Team Hillary Clinton: $4.1 million (all from the campaign)

• Team Rubio: $3.9 million (all from the outside group Conservative Solutions)

• Team Chris Christie $2.9 million (all in N.H.)

•Team Bobby Jindal: $2.5 million (all in Iowa)

Adam C. Smith contributed.