Monday, April 23, 2018
Politics

Trump, Carson have months to decide on third-party runs

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump and Ben Carson could dangle the possibility of independent runs for president well into the primary season next year, but they can't wait forever.

State filing deadlines would give the two Republicans until about March to launch independent or third-party campaigns, experts said. That would give a well-financed campaign enough time to gather sufficient signatures on petitions so the candidate could appear on the ballot in every state.

Starting next summer would be too late.

"Ross Perot in 1992 didn't start petitioning until March," said Richard Winger, editor of Ballot Access News. "He was on the ballot in every state."

Perot, a Texas businessman, got 19 percent of the vote in 1992 and Bill Clinton was elected president with 43 percent.

An independent or third-party run by either Trump or Carson would be a nightmare for Republican leaders.

If either or both take that step, the chances of winning the presidency would be a long shot. But one or both could siphon enough votes to hand the election to the Democrats.

"If you think about a Trump-Carson exit, then you're talking about 51 percent of the current Republican electorate, based on the polling," said Walter Stone, a political scientist at the University of California Davis.

Both Trump and Carson have pledged to support the Republican nominee for president, though Trump, the billionaire real estate mogul, has reserved the right to launch an independent bid if he feels he has been treated unfairly.

Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, raised the prospect of leaving the Republican Party on Friday after a report that GOP leaders had discussed the possibility of a contested convention if Trump fared well in party primaries.

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