PolitiFact: By one measure, U.S. debt will surpass the economy

The statement

"Our national debt … is on track to exceed the size of our entire economy … in just two more years."

Minority Leader John Boehner, March 24, in an op-ed in the Des Moines Register

The ruling

House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, published an op-ed in the Des Moines Register Wednesday. It was a broadside against the newly signed health care bill. In it, he asserted the bill "is a recipe for further fiscal disaster at a time when our national debt ($12.7 trillion today) is on track to exceed the size of our entire economy (about $15 trillion) in just two more years."

That struck us as a huge amount, so we decided to check.

First, we'll offer a reminder that the debt is different from a deficit. A deficit refers to the amount by which expenses exceed revenues in a single year. The debt refers to the cumulative total of past deficits, minus any intervening surpluses.

According to figures from the Office of Management and Budget, the gross federal debt by the end of fiscal year 2010 is projected to be almost $13.8 trillion. That's actually a bit more than Boehner had suggested. By the end of fiscal year 2012, the debt is projected to rise to $16.3 trillion, also higher than Boehner said.

But he is right that, measured by the share of gross domestic product, gross federal debt will reach a major milestone in two years. By 2012, gross federal debt is projected to be 100.8 percent of gross domestic product, up from 99.0 percent for fiscal year 2011.

These numbers have been growing for decades, roughly tripling since Jimmy Carter's presidency. Under Ronald Reagan, debt as a percentage of GDP grew from 33.4 percent to 51.9 percent, and under George H.W. Bush, it grew to 64.1 percent. It declined under Bill Clinton, to 57.3 percent, before rising to 69.2 percent under George W. Bush.

It's worth noting that there is an alternative measure of debt known as "public debt," which does not include money in the Social Security trust fund or other amounts that the government owes itself. Measured this way, the debt-to-GDP comparisons are much smaller. By the end of 2010, public debt is projected to be 60.3 percent of GDP, and by the end of 2012, it's projected to be 66.6 percent.

One measure "isn't more 'right' than the other — they are just looking at different things," said Marc Goldwein, policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a centrist budget-hawk group. "Boehner may be cherry-picking, but I don't think he's misrepresenting in any way."

It's also worth noting that these numbers are only estimates, subject to change, depending on economic conditions and policy choices. Still, we consider Boehner's statistics valid, according to the president's own Office of Management and Budget. So we rate his statement True.

Louis Jacobson, Times staff writer This ruling has been edited for print. Get the full version and other rulings at Politifact.com.