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Brace yourself Tampa Bay: El Niño is back and badder than ever

 
Charlie Moore boats into his neighborhood in March 1998 in Old Town.  Moore used a boat to enter and exit the area after excessive rain caused flooding. [AP photo]
Charlie Moore boats into his neighborhood in March 1998 in Old Town. Moore used a boat to enter and exit the area after excessive rain caused flooding. [AP photo]
Published Oct. 21, 2015

El Niño-fueled storms in the winter of 1998 turned several Central Florida counties into federal disaster areas.

Record rains flooded the Withlacoochee River. Tornadoes ripped across the state's midsection, leaving more than $100 million in damage. Farmers suffered massive crop losses.

This year's El Niño is even stronger, forecasters say.

That doesn't guarantee walloping storms and flooding, but experts say wetter and potentially violent weather could punctuate what is typically Florida's drier, calmer season.

In other words, don't panic, but be prepared.

"This is now record territory as far as El Niños go, but there are still a lot of big questions about what's going to happen," said Paul Close, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

Dan Noah, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Ruskin, pointed out that the state's population has increased by 4.7 million people since 1998, many unaware of just how severe Florida's winters can get during El Niño.

Take tornadoes. Of the state's 15 deadliest in the past 65 years, 11 developed during El Niños. Those include the two deadliest: the February 1998 tornado that killed 42 people in the Orlando and Kissimmee areas, and the 2007 Groundhog Day twister that killed 21 in the Villages and Lady Lake.

In west-central Florida, tornadoes typically are the width of a house and on the ground for less than a mile. In El Niño winters, they can span a half mile across and leave a wreckage trail 40 miles long.

"These aren't your ordinary tornadoes," Noah said.

El Niños, which usually occur every two to seven years and last seven to 12 months, involve the movement of a vast amount of warm surface water from the western Pacific Ocean to the eastern Pacific. The warmer the water, the stronger El Niño. This year, water temperatures are 4.5 degrees higher than they were in 1998 and the other major recent El Niño in 1982.

That likely means lots of rain during what is normally the state's drier season. The Tampa Bay area, for instance, averages about 10 inches from December to March. In those months during the 1997-1998 El Niño, the area received 36 inches.

This year, forecasters say the chance of above average rainfall from November through March is 70 percent.

"That's one of the strongest seasonal forecasts you'll ever see," said David Zierden, state climatologist at the Florida Climate Center.

At times, El Niño can be something to celebrate, bringing mild winters to the Northeast, dumping drought-busting rains on the West and fending off hurricanes and tropical storms by creating unfavorable winds in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. But it can cause havoc in Florida by pushing a strong subtropical jet stream into the southern United States and over the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters, creating a fast track into the state for clouds, rain and strong thunderstorms.

Tampa Bay residents can also expect slightly cooler days, said WTSP 10 News meteorologist Bobby Deskins.

"And we'll have almost twice the chance for severe weather," he added.

The extra rain puts a damper on two of the state's big economic drivers: agriculture and tourism.

During previous El Niños, the state's yields of tomatoes, bell peppers, sweet corn and snap beans plunged, according to the University of Florida. In 1998, the state Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services estimated crop damage from flooding at more than $100 million. As much as 75 percent of the strawberry crop was destroyed that season.

El Niño's lower temperatures can make for better berries, and the cloudy nights can protect crops from hard freezes. But growers must apply more fungicide and herbicide in wet conditions and be vigilant about picking berries as soon as they ripen, said J.C. Clinard, chief operating officer for Wish Farms in Plant City.

"Rain is our biggest foe in the strawberry world," Clinard said. "In wet weather, the berries soak up all the moisture, and it creates a juicy berry instead of a firm berry so it's more likely to bruise."

A rainy winter also has the potential to take some steam out of the region's record tourism streak. The nasty weather in 1998 caused occupancy rates to dip.

Winter visitors tend to plan and pay for accommodations months in advance, so they're less likely to cancel because of the weather, said David Downing, executive director for Visit St. Pete-Clearwater. But that could mean tourists holed up in hotels instead of out spending money.

"It's much easier to spin cold weather if it's sunny. But if it's rainy and dreary, that's a different issue altogether," Downing said. "Everyone in tourism is aware of this and holding their breath a little."

Contact Tony Marrero at tmarrero@tampabay.com or (727) 893-8779. Follow @tmarrerotimes.