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Even after summer storms, dry November raises wildfire concerns

 
Heavy rainfall from Hurricane Hermine, which caused flooding in Pasco County in September, seems like a distant memory two months later, after one of the driest Novembers on record.
Heavy rainfall from Hurricane Hermine, which caused flooding in Pasco County in September, seems like a distant memory two months later, after one of the driest Novembers on record.
Published Dec. 6, 2016

If the start of Florida's dry season has seemed even drier than normal, it's not because your rain gauge is out of whack.

Just one-tenth of an inch of rain fell at Tampa International Airport last month, making it the second-driest November on record, according to the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

St. Petersburg's Albert Whitted Airport saw only three-tenths of an inch, third-driest in the record books. And Tarpon Springs, where not even a trace amount of rain fell, saw its driest 11th month since record-keeping began there in 1892.

The weather is a stark turnaround from a wetter-than-average summer, punctuated by Tropical Storm Colin and Hurricane Hermine, and is raising the specter of drought and greater risk of wildfires.

Relief is on the way in the form of a weak cold front expected to bring showers today, 10Weather WTSP meteorologist Bobby Deskins said Monday.

"We have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, and I haven't said that in two months," Deskins said. "It's not going to rain the whole time, but some areas may see half an inch to an inch of rain, and some areas could get a little more than that."

November is typically Florida's driest month. The normal rainfall total is 1.55 inches in Tampa and 1.9 inches in St. Petersburg. But Tampa Bay hasn't seen significant rainfall since Hurricane Matthew blew by in early October, said Paul Close, a forecaster for the weather service.

"Since then, most places have seen less than half an inch," Close said.

The conditions extend into South Florida. November was the driest on record from Orlando to the Keys, according to the South Florida Water Management District.

The exceptionally dry conditions can be blamed in part on La Niña, a cooling of the water in the Pacific Ocean that pushes the jet stream — and the rain and storms that track it — farther north, forecasters said.

A lack of rain in the southeastern United States has plunged portions of Georgia, North Carolina, Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee into "extreme" or even "exceptional" drought, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center's index. The parched conditions extend into Florida's Panhandle.

Farther south, a wetter-than-normal summer is helping stave off drought conditions for now. Through Sunday, Tampa's rainfall tally for the year sat about 8 inches above normal, Close said. St. Petersburg has seen nearly 11 inches more than normal.

But the risk of wildfire crept up to "moderate" in Pinellas and Hillsborough and "very high" in Manatee County, according to the Florida Forest Service's fire danger index. Data for Pasco and Hernando was not available.

This week's moisture will help tamp down the risk but conditions were forecast to dry out again later this week and into the weekend, when low temperatures in the area are expected to drop into the 40s and 50s.

"The recent rain and the forecasted rain will provided some short-term relief for the state, but we anticipate warmer and drier conditions than normal in the coming months," Aaron Keller, spokesman for state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, said in an email. "We expect wildfires will increase throughout the state due to these conditions."

Thanks to El Niño, when Pacific waters are warmer and the jet stream plunges, the last couple of Florida winters have been cooler and wetter, making for fewer red flag warnings. The weather service issues the warnings when humidity plunges and winds gust, increasing the chance of fire starting and rapidly spreading.

"I suspect we're going to see more this year," Deskins said.

Contact Tony Marrero at tmarrero@tampabay.com or (813) 226-3374. Follow @tmarrerotimes.