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Tropical Storm Joaquin likely to become hurricane, deluge East Coast

 
As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center reported that the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was 405 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas. Joaquin was moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts. Joaquin could become a hurricane on Wednesday. [National Hurricane Center]
As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center reported that the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was 405 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas. Joaquin was moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts. Joaquin could become a hurricane on Wednesday. [National Hurricane Center]
Published Sept. 29, 2015

The East Coast is about to get a lot of rain because of Tropical Storm Joaquin.

As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center reported that the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was 405 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas. Joaquin was moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts. Joaquin could become a hurricane on Wednesday.

The storm is pushing a plume of tropical moisture toward the East Coast. The latest projection from the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center shows as much as 8 to 9 inches of rain is likely from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England through next Tuesday.

That's an incredible amount — more than two months' worth — and individual weather models are showing even more is possible in some areas if thunderstorms align into narrow bands.

Weather models still aren't sure what Joaquin will do over the next several days, but there's a chance that it, too, could make landfall over the same region that's being hit by the rain between Tuesday and Friday. If Joaquin makes landfall, it probably won't arrive until Saturday or Sunday.

By then, the ground will be soaked and the risk of flooding would increase.

Current weather models suggest Joaquin may be shunted out to sea as the front advances toward the coast after a complex interaction with two other smaller tropical systems, though a few scenarios show a left hook turn back toward the Northeast coastline. In a worst-case scenario, Joaquin could make landfall somewhere between North Carolina and Massachusetts at hurricane strength.

Even if Joaquin doesn't make landfall, this meteorological setup is nearly ideal for a high-impact flood event later this week across the core of the Northeast, from Washington, D.C., to New York City to Boston.