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Column: They totally knew — the people who foresaw the rise of Donald Trump.

 
Published March 18, 2016

There was a time, not so long ago, when reasonable people believed that Donald Trump was a fake presidential candidate. As many of us continue to grapple with the depth of how wrong we were to dismiss Trump in the opening months of his campaign, it's worth looking back at the handful of individuals who declined to join our giddy chorus of skepticism. Here's a sampling of Trump's first believers — what they said when, why, and what it feels like now that their ridiculous predictions have all but come true.

Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski

Hosts of MSNBC's morning show, Morning Joe

When they called it: June 16, 2015, the day Trump announced his candidacy, and pretty much every day since.

What they said: "Anything can happen." "He's not a fringe candidate." "This denial of reality by the mainstream media is actually feeding into Donald Trump's strength."

What tipped them off: Two things, according to Scarborough: First, people he and Brzezinski knew in South Carolina told them early on that Trump was bringing out thousands of people to political events that normally drew a few hundred. Also, Scarborough has long believed that the GOP elite was out of step with the party's populist base.

John McLaughlin

The 88-year-old host of TV's The McLaughlin Group.

When he called it: July 10, 2015

What he said: "Do you realize this man's achievement? Do you realize the buildings that he's put up?"

What tipped him off: The buildings. "They're enormous!" McLaughlin said, as his guest Mort Zuckerman shrugged.

Robert Baillieul

Toronto-based editor in chief of investing site Profit Confidential.

When he called it: July 27, 2015

What he said: In a blog post titled, "Here's Why Donald Trump Will Win the GOP Republican Primary," Baillieul wrote, "How can a baboon like Trump compete against political chess players like Bush and Clinton? Because Trump is playing three-dimensional chess. Or at least, he's flipped the table, declared himself the winner, and started throwing pieces at his opponents. Either way, it's effective." One section of the post appeared under the heading, "If You're Betting Against Donald Trump, You'll Hate Yourself Later."

What tipped him off: "The nerd squads in Washington have to learn this every election cycle, but it's obvious to anyone without a 202 area code. People crave a strong leader."

Scott Adams

Creator of the comic strip Dilbert, author, blogger.

When he called it: Aug. 5, 2015

What he said: "If Hillary does not coast into the White House as I expect (and this is a prediction, not a preference) you will see a Donald Trump presidency." Later called Trump a "clown genius."

What tipped him off: "I certainly understand that Trump comes off as arrogant, obnoxious and lots of other bad stuff," Adams wrote on his blog. "But over time, and compared to the liars on stage with him, you might get hooked on hearing his honest opinions. That's how the New York style works. At first you hate it because it seems so harsh. In time you start to appreciate the honesty. And when you realize the harshness is not a signal of real evil — just a style — you tend to get over it. He won't win over all of his haters, but I predict that his New York style will grow on people more than you would expect."

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He elaborated last week: "I have a background as a trained hypnotist and I've been studying persuasion and influence in all its forms — everything from advertising and marketing to you name it — for decades. I've gone deeper than most people in the art of influence, and when I started watching Trump I realized early that what looked like the random behavior of a clown to people who were untrained, was almost pitch perfect persuasion."

What he says about it now: Adams thinks Trump will win the general election in a "landslide." "I no longer think it'll be close, unless he gets assassinated or something," he said. As for what it was like to be taking Trump seriously when no one else was: "If you imagine politics as a stick fight, all other stick fights have been won by a person with a stick. But here was Trump who said, 'I read the rules and there's nothing against bringing a flamethrower.' So I'm watching Donald Trump walk up to a stick fight with a flamethrower in his hands that only I can see. It's like an invisible flamethrower! And the only reason I can see it is I have the same tool box."

© 2016 Slate