In a campaign season full of surprises, the last few weeks have presented another one.
All of the purported experts, myself included, opined that the Republicans were on their way to a fractured, contested convention, while the Democrats were on their way to coronate former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Instead, Donald Trump secured the Republican nomination weeks before anyone expected, while Clinton still fights a bitter contest for her party's nomination.
Free of the criticism of primary challengers, Trump has begun to consolidate the Republican base, which has raised his standing with the electorate. Recent polling shows Trump within the margin of error of Clinton in head-to-head national polls and polls in key states, including Florida. Clinton, on the other hand, is winning while she is losing. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has won the majority of recent Democratic primary and caucus contests, but since most states are not "winner take all" Clinton is still amassing delegates and edging closer to a majority. Clinton's failure to put Sanders away is dividing her base and hurting her with the electorate, which accounts for her slip in the polls.
Key to Clinton's path to the nomination is her reliance on the very undemocratic superdelegate process. She has the support of 1,771 delegates earned by winning primaries or caucuses. Sanders trails by only 272, with 1,499 delegates pledged to him. It takes 2,384 delegates to win. If that were the end of the story, the Democratic primary would likely end up in a contested convention with Sanders having all of the momentum.
Instead, Clinton is relying upon the support of 537 Democratic party insiders who, as superdelegates committed to her cause, have the same standing as the real delegates selected through the electoral process. Only with the help of these superdelegates is Clinton likely to secure the nomination before the convention.
The result of that undemocratic win will be that Clinton will alienate liberals and progressives. If the recent Democratic state party convention in Nevada is any indication of the mood of the party, look for Sanders supporters to show up to Philadelphia fighting mad. In Nevada, Sanders supporters accused the Clinton campaign and state party officials of voter fraud in the delegate selection process. Anger erupted on the convention floor, with Sanders supporters throwing chairs and Clinton supporters calling for their arrest.
Dissent and rancor at party conventions has historically portended poorly for presidential nominees. Witness the '76 and '92 Republican conventions, and the Democratic convention in '80. Reagan's challenge to sitting President Gerald Ford; Kennedy's similar challenge to President Jimmy Carter; and Pat Buchanan's Culture War speech in Houston all portended losses at the ballot box.
Perhaps the best analog to what the Democrats might face in Philadelphia is the 1968 Democratic Convention. After the assassination of Robert Kennedy, party leaders coalesced around Hubert Humphrey even though the majority of Democrats supported other anti-war candidates. Vietnam War protesters filled Chicago, and the city erupted in violence and chaos. Now Democratic Party officials worry that the same could happen in Philadelphia.
If Clinton wins the presidency this November it will be, in part, because she found a way to secure the support of Sanders and his supporters, unify her party and lead a drama-free convention in Philadelphia. If the convention floor is an ideological fight between the Democratic establishment and Sanders supporters, or still worse, the streets of Philadelphia are filled with anything but brotherly love, this November Democrats may seize defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Explore all your optionsGeorge LeMieux served as a Republican U.S. senator, governor's chief of staff and deputy attorney general.