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Editorial: Hard truths behind rosy job numbers

 
Friday’s jobless report was good news for the nation and for Florida, but the outlook on jobs, incomes and housing in the Tampa Bay area paints a far more unsettling picture for the region. Gov. Rick Scott and local leaders need to charter a smarter course to ensure the economic rebound is an opportunity for all.
Friday’s jobless report was good news for the nation and for Florida, but the outlook on jobs, incomes and housing in the Tampa Bay area paints a far more unsettling picture for the region. Gov. Rick Scott and local leaders need to charter a smarter course to ensure the economic rebound is an opportunity for all.
Published Nov. 22, 2014

Friday's jobless report was good news for the nation and for Florida, as the unemployment rate continues to fall and the broader economy shows signs that the sputtering recovery is at least holding together. But the outlook on jobs, incomes and housing in the Tampa Bay area paints a far more complete and unsettling picture for the region. Gov. Rick Scott and local leaders need to charter a smarter course to ensure the economic rebound is an opportunity for all.

Florida's unemployment rate fell to 6 percent in October, a six-year low, as the nation's jobless rate also dipped to 5.8 percent in September. The 34,400 jobs Florida added was the third-highest monthly gain across the nation, following only California and Texas. Tampa Bay's jobless rate improved to 6 percent, down from 6.2 percent, as the region added 7,500 jobs. The October numbers helped Tampa Bay add 19,800 jobs year over year, though the bay area continues to lag other Florida metro areas in job creation.

Friday's numbers move in the right direction, but they are only a snapshot, and they obscure some fundamental weaknesses that make for a still tough local economy. The region's soft jobs market (going from first to fifth as a jobs creator among the state's major metro areas), its tepid income gains and its resurgent housing prices all contribute to a tougher climate for many to make ends meet, much less to pursue the financial stability of home ownership.

A study released this month shows that Tampa Bay's median household income ranks dead last among the nation's 25 largest metro areas. The area's income is about 10 percent less than the second-worst city, Miami, and nearly half as much as the highest-income metro area, Washington. The wage gap leaves middle-income families short of the money needed to buy even an average-priced home. And for all the jobs gains, data released Thursday by the U.S. Commerce Department show that income growth in the bay area is far behind the national average. That lag in purchasing power comes as home prices on both sides of the bay continue to rise. This all points to a squeeze on the working class and a tough environment for residents to spend, invest and save.

The Florida Retail Federation estimates that Florida shoppers will spend 5 percent more this holiday season, a bigger jump than the forecast nationwide. And tourism to Florida and the bay area continues to break records this year, as new overseas flights begin between Tampa, Latin America and Europe.

Still, the recovery has been uneven. A recent United Way report found that nearly half of Florida households — more than 3 million in the state and about 600,000 in Tampa Bay — struggle to afford basic needs. The quantity of jobs coming to Florida is only half the picture; Scott and local leaders need to ensure the workforce can afford to remain and grow, and that can happen only if the state attracts enough quality jobs to bolster the income base.