A. Rays' likely contribution to new stadium when financing package arranged
The going rate for team contributions to midsize market stadiums is now about $150 million. That's what the Rays offered toward their waterfront proposal. But this contribution may vanish from the negotiating table soon. Even if vigorous planning were to begin next year, a final financing package could easily take until 2014 to 2015 to arrange, followed by at least a year for a referendum and three years for construction. If several years pass with no movement toward a stadium, it's safe to assume the Rays would lose enthusiasm for committing any money to St. Petersburg and will wait for another city to make a better offer.

B. Buyout price
As soon as the Rays lose enthusiasm for St. Petersburg, $150 million becomes a good starting point to buy their way out of the Trop contract. It's what they would have to contribute to a new stadium anyway. A suitor city and any of its corporate citizens could grease the deal by underwriting some, or all, of the buyout price. No matter who pays, the offer would drop steadily to zero by 2027.

C. City's likely net gain
for letting Rays leave
Developers bid $60 million to buy the Trop site two years ago before the economy collapsed. When it improves, a similar deal is foreseeable. Huge, vacant urban plots of land are rare. By putting developed Trop acreage back on tax rolls, St. Petersburg should gain something like $7 million a year. If bonded out, that supports $90 million to $100 million in new spending. Not building a new stadium saves another $80 million to $90 million. Add in $150 million from a buyout and the city could net about $400 million by letting the Rays go. The Pinellas County School Board would also reap millions of dollars by putting developed Trop acreage back on tax rolls. Gains to St. Petersburg diminish along with the buyout price.

D. Payoff amount on main Trop bonds
The primary bonds that built the Trop could be paid off today for about $50 million, which drops to $0 in 2017. A minor debt to the state extends through 2027. Citizens dislike the idea of financing a new stadium while debt remains on the old one. The Rays would also have to pay off bonds before leaving St. Petersburg, making 2017 an important milestone.

E. Rays' legal risk from breaking Trop contract
A judge could forbid the Rays from leaving St. Petersburg before the contract expires in 2027, but a settlement is likelier and the thorniest issue would be quantifying contract language that says baseball brings "diverse" benefits to the city. One concrete estimate of a team's value to a community is the cost of building a new stadium to keep them. Miami-Dade taxpayers recently put up $480 million for a 35-year lease with the Marlins. By that yardstick, baseball's value in 2010, with 17 years left on the Trop contract, would be about $235 million, dropping to $140 million by 2017. While primary bonds would be paid off in 2017, the Rays could also be responsible for secondary Trop bonds -- worth about $13 million by then. On the other hand, St. Petersburg also would gain the equivalent of about $150 million by developing the Trop and putting it back on tax rolls. Considering both the city's losses and gains would expose the Rays to substantial legal liability if they broke the contract today, but dramatically less by 2017.