Tonight's Sprint Cup race at Richmond International Raceway will set the field for NASCAR's 10-race Chase for the Championship. The drivers in spots 1-10 in points have already clinched their playoff spots, so only the two wild cards remain. The two drivers ranked 11-20 with the most wins get those spots; in case of a tie the driver with the most points gets in. Here's how the contenders stack up:
Kasey Kahne 11th place, 751 points, two wins
The skinny: For Kahne not to make it in his Hendrick Motorsports debut, someone (probably Kyle Busch) would have to pass Tony Stewart for 10th in points without winning, knocking Stewart and his three wins into a wild card, then someone with one win would have to win tonight and pass Kahne in points.
The odds: If Kahne doesn't faint during driver introductions, he'll make it. 97 percent
Kyle Busch 12th, 746 points, one win
The skinny: It's odd for him to only have one victory — he has had at least three in each of the past four seasons. The good news for the Wild Thing is that his lone win came at Richmond in April, and his 12 top-fives and 13 top-10s there are his best numbers for any track.
The odds: Four drivers could ace him out by winning tonight. But Busch is the most likely of the bunch to go to Victory Lane. 70 percent
Jeff Gordon 13th, 734 points, one win
The skinny: The four-time champion has not looked like a serious title contender for much of the year. If it weren't for a rain-shortened win at Pocono, his chances would be even worse. As it is, he needs his first Richmond win since 2000 or misfortune for Kyle Busch.
The odds: If he makes it, Hendrick gets all four cars in. But he'll need the kind of break he hasn't had all year. 20 percent
Carl Edwards 14th, 720 points, zero wins
The skinny: He had nine wins in his breakout season of 2008 but only three since. Even last year when he lost the title on a tiebreaker, he only won once. Now he faces an absolute must-win and needs help (mainly a malfunction for Kyle Busch).
The odds: With just two top-fives this year, the No. 99 Ford just doesn't have what it takes in 2012. 5 percent
Paul Menard 15th, 710 points, zero wins
The skinny: He has made steady progress, and if he stays where he is, he would achieve a career high in points. But making the Chase would require a win plus problems for a few drivers in front of him; Kyle Busch would have to have a really early DNF.
The odds: Put it this way: None of his Richard Childress teammates have won this year either. 2 percent
Drivers: Marcos Ambrose (16th, 706 points), Ryan Newman (17th, 697), Joey Logano (18th, 664)
The skinny: Any would make the playoffs with a win, vaulting past Kyle Busch despite a lower points finish and setting off BCS-level grousing about the Chase format. Newman's the only one with a Richmond win, but that was back in 2003.
The odds: NASCAR can probably relax and avoid debate. At least for a week. 2 percent each