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Defensive shifts can be double-edged swords, just ask Rays

 
Rays shortstop Tim Beckham turns a double play against the Astros, something that isn’t always routine with the shift.
Rays shortstop Tim Beckham turns a double play against the Astros, something that isn’t always routine with the shift.
Published April 28, 2017

The Rays have been up to their usual shifty business, frequently bunching three defenders on one side of the infield or the other, certain their data-driven positioning takes away more than it gives.

Through the first three weeks of play, the Rays have shifted more than any team in the majors (281), according to data provided by Inside Edge.

Correspondingly, they lead the majors in both saving (17) and aiding (12) the most hits due to their shifted positioning, though it should be noted that shift stats can be subjective, starting with the definition of what constitutes a shift.

Most importantly, per this independent data, is the Rays are among the game's biggest benefactors with a plus-5 rating.

Team officials, from the front office to manager Kevin Cash to the coaches, insist they will continue to be a benefit.

"Absolutely," said bench coach Tom Foley, who coordinates the defense. "We go by the information we get, and it's good information. And over the course of the year overall, it always works in our favor."

But it doesn't always look that way.

There are times when the shift creates awkward positioning, which makes it more difficult to hold runners and defend steals, and complicates basics such as turning double plays. And that in turn can be frustrating, and at times demoralizing, for the players.

"They give us a lot of great information, but it can't get in the way of a baseball play," veteran starter Alex Cobb said. "It can't prevent us from being baseball players out there."

That was perhaps best highlighted during the April 16 game in Boston. With one out, Red Sox on the corners and a lefty pull hitter — Mitch Moreland — up, the Rays shifted shortstop Tim Beckham to the other side of second and moved second baseman Brad Miller to the left of his standard spot.

It was the perfect situation for a double-play grounder, which is exactly what Cobb thought he got when Moreland rolled a 1-and-2 curveball to where a second baseman usually plays.

But Moreland's grounder went between the Rays defenders, as Beckham broke — seemingly counterintuitively — away from the ball to get to second to get into what still would have been a geometrically difficult position to turn a double play, and Miller couldn't get to it in time.

The result? What should have been a double-play grounder instead turned into an RBI single.

For all the good the shift can do — and, yes, the hits taken away don't get mentioned nearly as much as the ones given — there can be residual effect.

One, strategically, is in forcing pitchers to change what they've been doing for years and potentially go away from their strengths.

And two, emotionally, is in leaving them frustrated when shifts work against them.

It's not just the pitchers, worried about inflating ERAs, who notice.

"I think when you talk to front-office people, this is where sabermetrics and playing baseball are different," third baseman Evan Longoria said. "Sabermetrics is obviously an accumulation of numbers and statistical probabilities they use in order to put you in the right spot or put the right guys in the lineup based on whatever those numbers accumulate to.

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"The baseball side of it is that for a very long time pitchers were taught to get guys out a certain way — throw pitches to a certain spot, and if they get them to hit it that way it's an out. … So that's the toughest thing sabermetrics doesn't measure, is the morale of a pitcher on the mound when he executes a pitch and the ball is hit where he wants it to be hit and the guy is not standing there."

Pitchers can face a philosophical question of going with their instincts and strengths or adjusting based on where his fielders are.

"I can't change the way I pitch based off the defensive alignment," said Cobb, who as the Rays' most groundball-heavy starter gets impacted most. "There are so many reasons why my pitch selection is what it is. It goes off who the hitter is, what type of hitter he is, the situation, the score of the game. … If I need a double play off a righty, I'm usually going to throw a two-seamer in on his hands. If I need a groundball from a lefty, I'm going to throw a changeup away or a curveball away."

Cobb does it that way for a reason, of course. "I can absolutely influence where he's going to hit it," he said.

The shifts are not done in a vacuum.

The Rays also adjust, or at times abandon, the shift based on the game situation and matchup history. There is a pregame plan based on the data, but Foley and third-base coach Charlie Montoyo give a signal (1 for straight up, 2 for a slight pull shift, 3 for overshift) for each batter, or even at times each pitch. The infielders have the right — though they will have to explain it — to adjust off that based on what they see and think. Plus, pitchers have the option — though it's preferred in pregame meetings and not from the mound — to make adjustments.

More than anyone on the staff, pitching coach Jim Hickey feels the pitchers' pain.

But only to a degree.

"If it's first and third and there goes a double-play groundball, inning over, and you turn around and watch it go through for a base hit, it's extremely, extremely demoralizing, and understandably so," Hickey said.

"Obviously we are putting the defenders in the best spots to field the highest percentage of batted balls that we can. Sometimes it works out perfectly, and sometimes not so much.

"But I think at the end of the day the pitchers that have been here would be being less honest if they didn't say we've netted more outs than hits we've allowed."

Marc Topkin can be reached at mtopkin@tampabay.com. Follow @TBTimes_Rays.