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Rays' success hinges on lots of hope

 
Can Rene Rivera, a 30-year-old journeyman who just last year spent his first full season in the majors, be productive enough, and durable enough, to be the Rays' frontline catcher? [WILL VRAGOVIC | Times]
Can Rene Rivera, a 30-year-old journeyman who just last year spent his first full season in the majors, be productive enough, and durable enough, to be the Rays' frontline catcher? [WILL VRAGOVIC | Times]
Published April 2, 2015

The decisions the Rays make over the next few days will shape their roster as they begin the season Monday. But it was the decisions they made over the past few months that will determine how the season ends up. • Following a winter that can be, and has been, described in many colorful ways — refreshing, renovating, rebuilding, and those are just the R's — even the top Ray, principal owner Stuart Sternberg, acknowledges, "Things have to break really well for us to win 90." • Hope is a good thing to have at the start of a baseball season, springing eternal and all. It is not a good thing to have to count on. • But for the myriad reasons the Rays had in making the moves they did, and in not making others, they open play Monday having to hope a lot of things go right. Not just to get close to the 90 wins they need to compete in September for a playoff spot, but to stay on the right side of respectability.

Among their hopes:

. That catcher Rene Rivera, a 30-year-old journeyman who just last year spent his first full season in the majors, can be productive enough, and durable enough, to be their frontline guy.

A minor-leaguer or backup most of his career, Rivera got an unexpected opportunity in San Diego last season and took full advantage, hitting .252 with 11 homers, 44 RBIs and a .751 on-base plus slugging percentage while playing in 103 games (85 starts).

Given what the Rays got from their catchers last season — an MLB-worst .524 OPS (with .194-5-48) — he seemed like a major upgrade, especially as part of the return from the Wil Myers trade, and will be ridden hard.

Their view is that they are getting him at the right time, as he is just establishing himself. Their fear has to be that he turns out to be a one-year wonder.

. That outfielder Steven Souza Jr. is the beast in the middle of their order they once expected Myers to be.

The Rays had the option of taking younger, more high-ceiling prospects when dealing Myers, but they flipped them to Washington for Souza, who put up big numbers (.350, 18 homers, 75 RBIs, 26 steals, 1.022 OPS) in winning MVP honors in the Triple-A International League.

Again, the Rays are banking that their timing is good. Souza turns 26 in April, spent the first six years of his pro career without getting out of A ball, and battled some personal issues before undergoing a religious transformation.

He hasn't had a great spring, and they will try to deflect some of the attention and focus by initially batting him near the top (second) or bottom of the order. But they're sure hoping he ends up the big bat hitting behind Evan Longoria.

. That one of the former closers in their pen, Grant Balfour (whom they are paying $7 million) or Ernesto Frieri (whom they signed to an incentive-laden deal), regains enough form to handle a late lead.

With 2014 closer Jake McGee sidelined through April recovering from surgery, the Rays need to be able to trust more than Brad Boxberger and Kevin Jepsen.

And it's not as if either of them is a sure thing, as Boxberger only emerged last season as a setup man and Jepsen, acquired from the Angels, has spent the bulk of his career in the seventh and eighth innings.

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. That Asdrubal Cabrera wasn't just the least worst option they had at shortstop this spring but can and — motivated by a one-year, $7.5 million contract in his age 29 season — will play like the All-Star he was seemingly long ago in 2012, offsetting the loss of Ben Zobrist.

. That David DeJesus ends up somehow helping them win games or bringing something valuable in trade. As it is now, keeping DeJesus on the roster just because he is owed $6 million is not best for the team.

With no place for DeJesus in the outfield or at DH, they will carry him at the expense of a second backup infielder, limiting in-game maneuvering, or an extra reliever, which could be even more problematic given the uncertain status of the rotation. That could force plans to extend relievers beyond one inning, raising the potential for worse problems, such as unavailability the next day, overuse or even injury.

. That Kevin Cash, who Monday will manage his first real game at any level, proves to be the fast study all expect. An impressive spring has made this seem the least of the Rays' worries, but rival managers say the speed and volume of decision-making can be staggering for any newbie. And having no one on the coaching staff who has ever managed in the majors doesn't help.

. That not being more aggressive in adding rotation depth during the offseason doesn't force them into a more compromised situation.

No one could have expected the Rays, already without Matt Moore at least into June, to lose three starters during the spring to injury/illness. But they did, and trading for Erasmo Ramirez on Tuesday showed their concerns about the depth they had left as they try to battle through a challenging first month. Having a veteran, such as Erik Bedard last year, in camp on a minor-league deal would have provided some comfort. Having another injury would be a major problem.

That's a lot to be hoping for.

Contact Marc Topkin at mtopkin@tampabay.com. Follow @TBTimes_Rays.