ST. PETERSBURG — The death of the Rays 2009 season arrived this week. Belatedly, as it turns out.
We have known for about a month, and probably longer, that there would be no encore performance. The 2009 version of the Rays lacked qualities, both tangible and intangible, that could neither be hidden nor overcome.
So now that postseason elimination is official, the focus turns toward the next game that truly matters. And that would be the 2010 season opener.
The Rays have a little more than six months to figure out what was lacking this season, and how it can be corrected before next season. It is fairly obvious the offense was too inconsistent, the bullpen wore down and the starting rotation was less than anticipated. The tricky part is figuring out what, if anything, needs to be overhauled, tweaked or left alone.
We'll begin with these assumptions:
1) The rotation remains the strength of this team, and the Rays will not likely tamper with it. Between James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis, Tampa Bay has five quality starters 28 or younger and capable of throwing 200 innings.
In spite of first-half struggles, Rays starters were still first in the American League in innings, fourth in strikeouts and fifth in ERA. It is not unreasonable to think the rotation will be even better next season, with prospect Jeremy Hellickson waiting in the wings in case of emergency. Don't expect any changes.
2) The bullpen needs to be fixed. We've seen enough game-winning home runs to recognize that. Tampa Bay's save percentage of 61 percent was 10th in the AL, and the four teams below have the four worst records in the league.
The Rays are not anti-closer, they're just not inclined to pay top dollar for one. The top half-dozen closers make $10 million a year or more. That ain't happening in Tampa Bay. Two years ago, the Rays took a chance on Troy Percival, a proven closer with health problems near the end of his career. Try thinking along those lines again. Billy Wagner may be out of their price range, but he should probably get the first phone call.
3) There are only a handful of untouchable players on the roster. All of the starting pitchers probably fit in that category. Evan Longoria is definitely there. Maybe Ben Zobrist, too. And the only other one is B.J. Upton.
He is one of the season's biggest disappointments, but the Rays cannot afford to trade Upton. His current stock is too low, and his upside is far too high. Trading a potential superstar when he is coming off a poor season is not good business.
4) Tampa Bay is on pace to score a franchise record 803 runs and the offense was still a big disappointment.
The Rays strike out too much, and have no clue about situational hitting. You saw it again Wednesday night when the Rays failed in their first three opportunities to get a runner home from third with fewer than two outs. They are simply too inconsistent on a nightly basis.
There will be new faces — Matt Joyce in rightfield and Sean Rodriguez in Zobrist's utility role — but they are not going to change the offense by themselves.
So, given these assumptions, what possibilities exist?
You can probably rule out a big-money free agent acquisition. The Rays got themselves some payroll flexibility by trading Scott Kazmir, but that doesn't mean they have a ton of money to spend. Other than role players and some bullpen arms, this avenue is not likely.
That means trades become a real possibility, including a trio of 2009 All-Stars. Jason Bartlett, Carl Crawford and Carlos Peña could all be moved in the right situation. The question is finding a trade partner that makes sense.
The most obvious places for upgrade are catcher and designated hitter. Dioner Navarro seriously regressed behind the plate, and it may be time to acknowledge he will never live up to his potential. Pat Burrell was a bust at DH, and probably needs to return to the National League.
In a perfect world, the Rays upgrade at catcher or DH without hurting themselves elsewhere. How do you do that? Finding the right match. For instance, the Rays were interested in Milton Bradley last off-season before he signed with the Cubs.
Bradley had a tumultuous season in Chicago — as he has elsewhere — and will probably be traded. If the Rays convince the Cubs that Burrell could excel by returning to the NL in the walk year of his contract, they might have a willing partner. Their 2010 salaries are a wash, but the Rays will have to figure out a way to negate Bradley's $12 million salary in 2011.
Is it likely? Probably not, but that's the sort of deal the Rays will probably be seeking.
The bottom line is the Rays have a legitimate chance to contend again in 2010. They are close enough that the opportunity should not be wasted, but they are far enough away that they cannot afford to stand pat.
The season may be ending, but the work is just beginning.
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