TAMPA — Occasionally, the tension of sports can spill over to its business side. Depending on the nature of the legislation, a bylaw here or amendment there can elicit glee or groans from the affected fan base.
Why else would many USF constituents be anxiously awaiting the outcome of meetings being staged a time zone or two away? For Bulls supporters who feel mired in a less-heralded conference, no three syllables sound sweeter than ex-pan-sion, and they're hoping the word bounces off faraway board rooms all month.
It's expected to resonate at this week's gathering of Big 12 football coaches and athletic directors in Phoenix and likely will be repeated when the conference's presidents convene in Irving, Texas, this month. Just how much traction the subject will gather is anyone's guess.
"The Big 12 is disadvantaged when compared to the other conferences in three ways," Oklahoma president David Boren said in a statement released to his school's independent student newspaper this year.
"We do not have at least 12 members, we do not have a conference network, and we do not have a football championship game. I think that all three of these disadvantages need to be addressed at the same time."
But realistically, those anxious USF fans with visions of joining the Sooners and Cyclones of the world are holding out faint hope for an administrative Hail Mary.
If Big 12 presidents push the expansion agenda (and Boren is by far the most outspoken in favor of it), USF appears to be a dark horse candidate at best. Generally, the top contenders are believed to be Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and BYU.
Even UCF has been mentioned more prominently than the Bulls, though sometimes UCF and USF are mentioned together as a de facto package deal.
Which raises the obvious question: If USF's blend of facilities, favorable TV market (13th largest nationally, according to stationindex.com), size (roughly 42,000 students on USF's main campus) and a fertile recruiting base aren't enough to be considered a prime expansion candidate, what exactly are Big 12 presidents looking for?
"Well, a couple of things," said Dr. William Sutton, director of USF's Sport and Entertainment Management Program.
"Institutional compatibility. Like-minded presidents … and I think we stack up really well there. They're also looking at television market, and I think we stack up well there. They're looking at (fan and booster) support, and we're probably not where we need to be there."
But Sutton, chairman of USF's Search Advisory Committee that recommended the hiring of athletic director Mark Harlan, said an even bigger question looms: What does USF bring to the dance?
"What do we have that makes a compelling argument as to why they should divide up so much (revenue) among 10 other schools?" he said.
Could be a blend of criteria, not the least of which are the aforementioned TV market, deep recruiting reservoir and even academic stature. USF ranks 25th nationally among public universities — and 41st when tossing in private universities — in research dollars, according to the National Science Foundation.
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Explore all your optionsFor those who don't think academic muscle weighs heavily in the selection of new rivals for Texas or Kansas, remember who the people are making the expansion decisions.
"We think back, and the conferences are governed by the university presidents, and they like to bring like universities … into the fold with them," said Dr. Andy Gillentine, associate dean of the College of Hospitality, Retail and Sport Management at South Carolina.
"So therefore they don't only help themselves athletically, they now open some more doors academically for their partnerships. It's something that they definitely will consider."
But the red flags — of which USF has no shortage — will be weighed as heavily as the research dollars in any legitimate expansion debate.
School documents indicate USF's athletic department ran a mild budget deficit for fiscal year 2015. According to its Bulls Club membership guide, it ranks next to last in the American Athletic Conference in terms of annual giving as a percentage of its overall athletic budget (5 percent).
Moreover, 34 percent of its athletics revenue comes from student fees, and its average announced attendance for six home football games last season (26,578) ranked ninth in the American. By contrast, Kansas — which had the Big 12's worst attendance last season — still drew an average of 27,282.
"If they had a plan to get that (student fee percentage) down to 10 percent or something like that, then I think it would be fine if that plan were feasible," said Dr. Dan Rascher, who runs the Sport Management Program at the University of San Francisco and is a nationally hailed sports economist.
"But I do think that's a red flag because, again, the financial support for the athletic department could change if all the sudden the students decide to vote against student fees or go on strike, or the Board of Regents decide that, 'We're not gonna invest as much.' "
Of course, joining a conference with larger bowl payouts and potential revenue from a league network could make solid revenue streams to lessen the burdensome student fees.
Then again, the Big 12 currently has no network, and for all of USF's media-market attractiveness, three AAC schools (Houston, SMU, Temple) are nestled in larger TV markets. Four counting UConn (and its proximity to New York City).
All those factors likely will be considered, as well as some less conspicuous ones (such as the fact TCU athletic director Chris Del Conte is a close friend and former co-worker of Harlan). But the biggest will be as glaring as the burnt orange on Charlie Strong's tie.
"I think football's the driver," Sutton said.
And it remains at the wheel, even though the NCAA Division I Council passed a resolution in January allowing the Big 12 to stage a conference title game with only 10 teams (prior rules required leagues to have 12 in order to have a title game).
Notably, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby told ESPN that data from the league's consulting firm revealed that a 12-team league with an eight-game league schedule and championship game is the best model to reach the College Football Playoff.
Any self-respecting Power Five constituent wants a neighbor who can raise the league's collective stature, provide a fresh recruiting base, annually earn a bowl trip and attract TV viewers. Even the lack of an on-campus stadium wouldn't in itself be a deal-breaker, Sutton suggested.
"This year's attendance will be a good story to tell if we get it up," Sutton said. "The University of Pittsburgh plays where the Steelers play. UCLA doesn't have a football stadium, Southern Cal doesn't have a football stadium. But they fill the stadium they have. That's the issue."
Contact Joey Knight at jknight@tampabay.com. Follow @TBTimes_Bulls.