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How to beat Alabama? List is short, not sweet

 
Florida Gators quarterback Austin Appleby (12) and head coach Jim McElwain watch quarterback Feleipe Franks (13) do drills during team practice at the Georgia Dome on Friday December 2, 2016, in Atlanta Georgia.  Florida will take on Alabama in the SEC Championship on Saturday. Kickoff is 4pm.
Florida Gators quarterback Austin Appleby (12) and head coach Jim McElwain watch quarterback Feleipe Franks (13) do drills during team practice at the Georgia Dome on Friday December 2, 2016, in Atlanta Georgia. Florida will take on Alabama in the SEC Championship on Saturday. Kickoff is 4pm.
Published Dec. 3, 2016

ATLANTA — Jim McElwain hasn't sugarcoated the challenge his No. 15 Gators face in today's SEC championship.

No. 1 Alabama might be Nick Saban's best team, even better than the national championship squad that beat Florida 29-15 last year. A Gators offense that totaled three touchdowns last month faces a defense that didn't allow a single play past its 10-yard line in November. Not even former UF star Tim Tebow is picking the Gators to win at the Georgia Dome.

Yet McElwain believes the 'Bama juggernaut is not invincible.

"It's not unbeatable at all," McElwain said.

So how could the 24-point underdog Gators end the Tide's 24-game winning streak and disrupt its path to the Jan. 9 national title game in Tampa?

"You can't make the bad plays," said Tebow, now an SEC Network analyst.

If you do, Alabama will capitalize. The Tide has 12 nonoffensive touchdowns this season, an astonishing amount considering the Gators only have 25 on offense.

The historical blueprint to beat Saban has been to use a dual-threat quarterback and an up-tempo offense, such as Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M. UF doesn't really have either.

"I think you have to do it how LSU did it," CBS analyst Gary Danielson said.

The Tigers hung close in a 10-0 loss this season matching the Tide's physicality up front. Florida will have to do the same — or at least "not get humiliated" on the line of scrimmage, Danielson said.

The Gators have shown they can do that, pounding LSU two weeks ago. But they also can get pounded, as they showed by allowing six sacks and nine tackles for a loss last week at Florida State.

Danielson said Alabama's defensive weakness (a relative term) is its secondary, and you can't beat the Tide without an efficient quarterback. That means Austin Appleby will have to improve from his past two starts (a combined 26-of-52 passing).

Some offensive wrinkles might help, too. A 'Bama staff that includes five former Division I-A head coaches (plus former UCF coach-in-waiting Brent Key) can diagnose and exploit any weaknesses. McElwain joked that he might switch his offense to the wishbone this week, just to throw them off.

"We've just got to spice it up," Florida tackle David Sharpe said.

From there, UF will have to pounce on any mistake. Maybe it's a turnover from freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts, whose nine interceptions are the third-most by a Tide quarterback under Saban. Maybe it's a big special teams play, like the punt Antonio Callaway returned for a touchdown in this game last year.

"Those are the hidden things in a football game that can change the face of the entire game," said SEC Network analyst Marcus Spears, who played for Saban at LSU. "That'll be what they'll have to do, because you're not going to drive 80 yards on this defense."

Alabama has only allowed two such drives all season, and the first was a two-play burst fueled by one broken play. The Tide doesn't break down much, either. No team in the country has allowed fewer plays of at least 10 yards than Alabama, and only nine offenses have amassed fewer than Florida.

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The challenges keep coming.

Hurts adds a dynamic running threat that Alabama has lacked at quarterback to go with a loaded group of playmakers. And even if the Gators hang with the Tide early, Alabama has outscored opponents 238-61 in the second half.

"Hold on," Danielson said, "because Alabama is the most clutch team I've seen in college football since I've been doing it. They find ways to win games late."

Contact Matt Baker at mbaker@tampabay.com. Follow @MBakerTBTimes.