NFL Power Rankings, Week 11: Steelers, Cowboys fall; Patriots, Saints rise

The Cowboys' playoffs chances dropped more than 20 percentage points after Sunday's 27-7 loss to the Falcons. [Getty Images]
The Cowboys' playoffs chances dropped more than 20 percentage points after Sunday's 27-7 loss to the Falcons. [Getty Images]
Published November 16 2017
Updated November 16 2017

What follows below is a ranking of all 32 NFL teams. To build this list, we consulted five objective measures of team strength: Pro Football Referenceís Simple Rating System, Football Outsidersí Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings, ESPNís Football Power Index, FiveThirtyEightís Elo ratings and statistician Jeff Sagarinís NFL ratings. We then used a composite of those measures as a guidepost.

Previous rankings: Week 10

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (record: 7-2; composite ranking: 3.4)

Last week: 41-16 win over Broncos

Week 10 ranking: 2

Playoff odds: 98.4 percent

Hey, NFL. The Patriots donít need help. On Sunday, the Broncos committed one special teams blunder after another: a muffed punt, a blocked punt and a kickoff return for a touchdown. New England takes the top spot this week because, unlike Pittsburgh, it doesnít play down to its opponents.

2. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-2; 1.8)

Last week: 47-10 win over Bills

Week 10 ranking: 7

Playoff odds: 95.6 percent

Since Drew Brees signed in New Orleans in 2006, the Saints have scored 40 or more points 25 times. Sundayís game was the first time they did so without a Brees touchdown pass.

3. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-2; 5.2)

Last week: 20-17 win over Colts

Week 10 ranking: 1

Playoff odds: 99.4 percent

The Steelers were wise to retire those bumblebee throwbacks. Not a good look. Also not a good look: Needing a last-second field goal to beat the Colts.

4. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-3; 5.4)

Last week: bye

Week 10 ranking: 3

Playoff odds: 95.3 percent

No oneís catching the Chiefs. The AFC West is theirs. Their final seven opponents: Giants, Bills, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos.

5. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-1; 3.2)

Last week: bye

Week 10 ranking: 4

Playoff odds: 98.5 percent

The Eagles kick off the toughest part of their schedule this Sunday night when they travel to Dallas to play the Cowboys. The last time Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott went head-to-head in a meaningful game four quarters werenít enough. Dallas rallied from a 10-point deficit and won 29-23 in overtime. This could be the NFLís next great rivalry.

6. LOS ANGELES RAMS (7-2; 5.4)

Last week: 33-7 win over Texans

Week 10 ranking: 5

Playoff odds: 93.9 percent

The Ramsí wins havenít been cheap. Theyíve won four games by 26 or more points. No one else has more than two.

7. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-2; 6.8)

Last week: 38-30 win over Washington

Week 10 ranking: 9

Playoff odds: 86.9 percent

Itís time to talk about how good Case Keenum has been. On Sunday, he passed for 300 yards and four touchdowns ó against a team other than the Bucs. Yes, he threw two interceptions, but all that did was make the game slightly more interesting. He ranks second among all quarterbacks in Football Outsiderís DVOA metric and third in ESPNís Total QBR.

8. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (6-3; 8.8)

Last week: 20-17 win over Chargers

Week 10 ranking: 8

Playoff odds: 98.0 percent

Is there anything this defense canít do? Down 17-14, Blake Bortles tried as hard as he could Sunday to give the game away, throwing two interceptions in the final two minutes. Each time, the defense quickly got the ball back into the hands of the offense. Then the Chargers out-Bortlesed Bortles. A roughing the passer penalty put the Jaguars comfortably in range for a game-tying field goal.

9. CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-3; 9.8)

Last week: 45-21 win over Dolphins

Week 10 ranking: 11

Playoff odds: 64.8 percent

The Panthers rushed for 294 yards against the Dolphins on Monday night. The team single-game record is 299 yards, which Carolina set against Tampa Bay in 2008, Jon Grudenís final season as coach. Or was it?

10. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-3; 8.8)

Last week: 22-16 win over Cardinals

Week 10 ranking: 10

Playoff odds: 53.4 percent

The Seahawks and Chargers each have played seven games decided by one score, most in the NFL. Seattle has won four of them.

11. ATLANTA FALCONS (5-4; 10.6)

Last week: 27-7 win over Cowboys

Week 10 ranking: 12

Playoff odds: 21.4 percent

On Sunday, defensive end Adrian Clayborn became the fourth player to record six sacks in a game. The others: Osi Umenyiora (2007), Derrick Thomas (1990 and 1998) and Fred Dean (1983).

12. DALLAS COWBOYS (5-4; 11.2)

Last week: 27-7 loss to Falcons

Week 10 ranking: 6

Playoff odds: 20.4 percent

No teamís playoff hopes took a hit like the Dallasí. The easy thing to do is to blame the blowout loss to the Falcons on Ezekiel Elliottís suspension, but Cowboys coaches are the culprits. Once a defensive lineman records three sacks, youíd figure a team would adjust. Instead, Dallas allowed Clayborn to look like Bruce Smith.

13. DETROIT LIONS (5-4; 12.0)

Last week: 38-24 win over Browns

Week 10 ranking: 13

Playoff odds: 37.9 percent

At this stage, it looks as if the final NFC playoff spot will come down to the Lions and Seahawks. Detroit hasnít played in consecutive postseasons since 1994-1995.

14. BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-5; 16.0)

Last week: bye

Week 10 ranking: 14

Playoff odds: 45.2 percent

Joe Flacco, who has the highest cap hit ($24.6 million) of any quarterback this season, is averaging a league-low 5.3 yards per pass attempt.

15. WASHINGTON (4-5; 15.8)

Last week: 38-30 loss to Vikings

Week 10 ranking: 15

Playoff odds: 9.0 percent

Washington has given up 30 or more points in three of its past four games. Things wonít get easier this Sunday, as the team travels to New Orleans to play the Saints, who are averaging 30 points per game.

16. TENNESSEE TITANS (6-3; 19.4)

Last week: 24-20 win over Bengals

Week 10 ranking: 17

Playoff odds: 67.7 percent

Who are the real Titans? The team that soundly beat the Jaguars and Seahawks? Or the that team that barely escaped losses to the Browns and Bengals? Tennessee is the only division leader that has a negative point differential (-8).

17. GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-4; 14.0)

Last week: 23-16 win over Bears

Week 10 ranking: 18

Playoff odds: 17.3 percent

The Packers have lost two straight home games. They havenít lost three straight since 2006, Mike McCarthyís first season as head coach.

18. BUFFALO BILLS (5-4; 20.8)

Last week: 47-10 loss to Saints

Week 10 ranking: 16

Playoff odds: 45.9 percent

The Bills 2017 season in three acts: I. Theyíre tanking. II. No, theyíre not tanking. III. Okay, theyíre tanking. How do you fix a run defense that allowed the Saints to rack up 298 rushing yards? You make a change at quarterback, of course. Bills gonna Bills.

19. OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-5; 18.8)

Last week: bye

Week 10 ranking: 20

Playoff odds: 14.8 percent

The Raiders have lost four straight games to the Patriots, last beating them 15 years ago. Good news: Oakland had a bye last week, so it has had extra time to rest and prepare. Bad news: New England played Denver, and that was basically a bye.

20. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (3-6; 17.6)

Last week: 20-17 loss to Jaguars

Week 10 ranking: 19

Playoff odds: 10.2 percent

Copying last weekís comment here, with an update: The Chargers donít do anything remarkably well, except lose close games. Since the start of the 2015 season, no team has played in more games decided by one score and no team has lost more of those games. Theyíve lost 23, five more than the Ravens, who have lost the second most.

21. DENVER BRONCOS (3-6; 23.2)

Last week: 41-16 loss to Patriots

Week 10 ranking: 21

Playoff odds: 4.8 percent

Defensive end Derek Wolfe after the Patriots embarrassed the Broncos on Sunday night: "Itís real sad. Itís sad we went from being a championship caliber team to a team that stinks. Nobody respects us."

22. HOUSTON TEXANS (3-6; 20.4)

Last week: 33-7 loss to Rams

Week 10 ranking: 22

Playoff odds: 5.9 percent

Tom Savage has started in three games for the Texans, and in those games, he has been part of two touchdown drives.

23. CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-6; 24.0)

Last week: 24-20 loss to Titans

Week 10 ranking: 23

Playoff odds: 4.8 percent

Do you like punting? Watch a Bengals game. Cincinnati punts about every other drive.

24. ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-5; 25.0)

Last week: 22-16 loss to Seahawks

Week 10 ranking: 25

Playoff odds: 0.5 percent

Coach Bruce Arians on the possibility of Blaine Gabbert filling in for Drew Stanton (knee injury) on Sunday: "Iím extremely comfortable." Bear in mind that Arians also feels extremely comfortable doing things that would make the rest of us feel extremely uncomfortable. Things like stepping on hornets, running through fires and listening to the Spin Doctors.

25. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (3-6; 21.8)

Last week: 15-10 win over Jets

Week 10 ranking: 26

Playoff odds: 0.3 percent

Floridaís NFL teams ó the Bucs, Dolphins and Jaguars ó have gone a combined 39 seasons without winning a playoff game.

26. NEW YORK JETS (4-6; 26.2)

Last week: 15-10 loss to Bucs

Week 10 ranking: 24

Playoff odds: 3.7 percent

Quarterback Josh McCown, who played for the Bucs in 2014, has lost seven straight games in Tampa.

27. CHICAGO BEARS (3-6; 24.6)

Last week: bye

Week 10 ranking: 27

Playoff odds: 0.1 percent

The Bears had an extra week to prepare for an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers team and still lost ó at home. Fewest wins since the start of the 2015 season (coach John Foxís first season): Bears (12), Chargers (12), 49ers (eight) and Browns (four).

28. MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-5: 28.8)

Last week: 45-21 loss to Panthers

Week 10 ranking: 29

Playoff odds: 4.3 percent

The Dolphins are a mess offensively and defensively, and three straight prime time games have only magnified their issues. No one asked to see more of the Dolphins, but the NFL keeps giving them to us anyway. Kind of like how Hollywood gave us a "Daddyís Home" sequel.

29. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-7; 30.2)

Last week: 20-17 loss to Steelers

Week 10 ranking: 30

Playoff odds: 1.6 percent

Adam Vinatieri is by far the most recognizable name on the Colts active roster. Thereís Jacoby Brissett, Frank Gore, T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle, too, but you only know them because you play fantasy football and have been looking for some bye week fill-ins.

30. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-9; 30.0)

Last week: 31-21 win over Giants

Week 10 ranking: 31

Playoff odds: 0.0 percent

Remember when 49ers-Giants was one of the NFLís best rivalries? Joe Montana and Jerry Rice. Lawrence Taylor and the Big Blue Wrecking Crew. That was fun.

31. NEW YORK GIANTS (1-8; 27.6)

Last week: 31-21 loss to 49ers

Week 10 ranking: 28

Playoff odds: 0.0 percent

Itís painful to watch Ben McAdoo wander the sidelines in New York. Itís like watching Bob Newby navigate the dark halls of Hawkins National Laboratory in "Stranger Things 2." You know how itís going to end.

32. CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-9; 31.4)

Last week: bye

Week 10 ranking: 32

Playoff odds: 0.0 percent

The Browns havenít won on a Sunday in nearly two years. Their last win was a 24-10 win over the 49ers on Dec. 13, 2015.

Playoff odds are from Football Outsiders. Contact Thomas Bassinger at [email protected] Follow @tometrics.

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