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Could the Bucs be the 1 in draft?

 
FILE - In this Sept. 6, 2014, file photo, Oregon's Marcus Mariota passes down field against Michigan State during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game in Eugene, Ore. Mariota goes into Saturday's Dec. 13, 2014, Heisman Trophy ceremony as the clear front runner.  (AP Photo/Chris Pietsch, File) NY150
FILE - In this Sept. 6, 2014, file photo, Oregon's Marcus Mariota passes down field against Michigan State during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game in Eugene, Ore. Mariota goes into Saturday's Dec. 13, 2014, Heisman Trophy ceremony as the clear front runner. (AP Photo/Chris Pietsch, File) NY150
Published Dec. 14, 2014

It's going to happen in the next three weeks. Some chronic NFL loser is going to win. By losing three more games, it will win the rights to the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft.

Right now that slot belongs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who at 2-11 are the sorriest team in the sorriest division in the league. That matters, because the Jets, Titans, Jaguars and Raiders also have won only twice and could wind up first by finishing last in the league. The first tiebreaker is opponent records. Playing in the NFC South helps the Bucs in this case.

However, even the most ardent Bucs fan might believe it would behoove his team to tank its way into the top spot, where a potential franchise quarterback such as Oregon's Marcus Mariota or Florida State's Jameis Winston may await.

Tanking discussions never take place in the private offices or hallways of an NFL team. The season­long mantra is to pour all your energy into winning each game and to ask a player to do anything less is out of bounds.

Former GM Charley Casserly found himself in that position with the Texans in 2005. They needed to lose their final game to secure the top spot in the 2006 draft, and they did. They picked defensive end Mario Williams.

"I was in that situation once in my career, and the (tanking) conversations did not take place," Casserly said. "And we ended up with the first overall pick. We went into the last game of the year — I think we could've (ended up in the draft) anywhere from one to five — and lost the game in overtime and ended up with the first pick.

"However, being out of football … I would've loved to have found a way to make sure we got that first pick at that point in time. But it's a touchy situation because the players want to win and you preach to them all year, 'We're going to play hard, no matter what the adversity is.' And I'm sure that was the (Bucs') message. It's hard to change that message right now."

There's no doubt the Bucs would like the No. 1 pick. Even if they got it and traded it, the selection is like currency that can purchase a new future.

Though the Bucs could certainly use a quarterback such as Mariota, he's not Andrew Luck. The bust rate on first-round QBs is about 50 percent. Though the pressure to take Mariota would be immense if the redshirt junior were to leave Oregon early, Winston, a redshirt sophomore who also might leave school early, might be better suited for the NFL game.

"Let me say this: If it was just me alone and there were some decisions in the game, I would try to get that first pick in the draft," Casserly said. "But it's really hard to do. There's too many variables. The players can sense that, and you've got to play to win."