Every quarterback's performance declines when he faces pressure from the defense.
While Jameis Winston is no exception, his play under duress last season was better than most other quarterbacks' play, according to data published this week by Football Outsiders. To label the Buccaneers quarterback's performance "good," however, would be a bit of a stretch; "not as bad" is a more fitting description.
The site tracked 34 quarterbacks and used its Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) statistic* to measure their play in situations in which they faced pressure and situations in which they didn't. Think of it as an efficiency rating. It's expressed as a percentage, with a positive percentage representing above-average efficiency and a negative percentage representing below-average efficiency.
When under pressure, 31 quarterbacks had a lower DVOA than Winston. Only Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor ranked higher.
DVOA when facing pressure
Rank | Player | Team | DVOA pressure |
1 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | -3.3% |
2 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | -21.3% |
3 | Jameis Winston | TB | -24.9% |
4 | Andrew Luck | IND | -27.4% |
5 | Dak Prescott | DAL | -30.5% |
6 | Tom Brady | NE | -31.6% |
7 | Matt Ryan | ATL | -32.9% |
8 | Brian Hoyer | CHI | -34.1% |
9 | Matthew Stafford | DET | -34.1% |
10 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | -38.5% |
Source: Football Outsiders |
FO also found that the difference between Winston's DVOA in situations in which he faced pressure and situations in which he didn't was the third-smallest. Based on that, one might conclude that he held up reasonably well when the pocket collapsed. In other words, he didn't morph into Blake Osweiler or Jared Goff the moment a lineman or linebacker breathed on him.
Difference in DVOA, pressure vs. no pressure
Rank | Player | Team | DVOA pressure | DVOA no pressure | Diff |
1 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | -3.3% | 54.1% | -57.3% |
2 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | -21.3% | 46.4% | -67.7% |
3 | Jameis Winston | TB | -24.9% | 45.3% | -70.2% |
4 | Matthew Stafford | DET | -34.1% | 38.6% | -72.6% |
5 | Andrew Luck | IND | -27.4% | 48.6% | -76.0% |
6 | Brian Hoyer | CHI | -34.1% | 42.0% | -76.0% |
7 | Jared Goff | LAR | -126.5% | -45.2% | -81.3% |
8 | Blake Bortles | JAC | -60.6% | 27.2% | -87.9% |
9 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | -38.5% | 51.7% | -90.3% |
10 | Alex Smith | KC | -46.9% | 46.1% | -93.0% |
27 | Matt Ryan | ATL | -32.9% | 90.5% | -123.3% |
Source: Football Outsiders |
Here's another way to look at the numbers: As important as it is for quarterbacks to withstand pressure, teams really count on them to produce when defenders aren't able to disrupt plays. Consider that Winston faced pressure on 31.7 percent of his pass plays, according to FO. Even though that was the seventh-highest rate, that still means he had a clean pocket seven out of every 10 plays. His performance in those situations was relatively ordinary. His 45.3 percent DVOA ranked 18th, between Alex Smith and Cam Newton.
DVOA when facing no pressure
Rank | Player | Team | DVOA no pressure |
1 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 90.5% |
2 | Tom Brady | NE | 81.1% |
3 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 77.4% |
4 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | 65.5% |
5 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 61.3% |
6 | Derek Carr | OAK | 55.4% |
7 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 54.8% |
8 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 54.8% |
9 | Philip Rivers | SD | 54.2% |
10 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 54.1% |
18 | Jameis Winston | TB | 45.3% |
Source: Football Outsiders |
The difference in Winston's DVOA, then, is less an indication of consistency and more of a signal that he has room for improvement when he isn't under pressure. To further illustrate the point, let's look at Matt Ryan. His -32.9 percent DVOA when facing pressure wasn't unusually bad (in fact, it ranked as seventh-best). He was just ridiculously efficient in situations without pressure (his 90.5 percent DVOA was the best in the NFL).
Stay updated on Tampa Bay’s sports scene
Subscribe to our free Sports Today newsletter
You’re all signed up!
Want more of our free, weekly newsletters in your inbox? Let’s get started.
Explore all your optionsContact Thomas Bassinger at tbassinger@tampabay.com. Follow @tometrics.
*FO's definition: "DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality."