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NFL predictions

Chargers (4-5) at Dolphins (4-5)

4 p.m. Ch. 10. Chargers by 1½, 45½

The AFC's second wild card has the Jets at 5-4 then five teams with four wins, including these two. Miami has dropped five of six, but that might help against the Chargers. Three of their four wins are against teams now at .500 or better while four of their five losses are to teams below .500. Dolphins DE Dion Jordan, the third overall pick in April, has 11 tackles and one sack in nine games. The opposite? Chargers third-rounder Keenan Allen, above, who leads rookies with 568 receiving yards.

The pick: Chargers 24, Dolphins 21

Packers (5-4) at Giants (3-6)

4:25 p.m. Giants by 4, 42

Scott Tolzien, who was cut by the 49ers in preseason, threw for 280 yards last week for Seneca Wallace. But he's why the Packers are again an underdog against a team with a losing record. So much for the Giants easing Andre Brown in. He rushed 30 times for 115 yards in his season debut last week. Packers rookie Eddie Lacy leads the NFL with 618 rushing yards since Oct. 1. He'll challenge John Brockington's rookie record of 1,105 set in 1971. Is this the week Hakeem Nicks, above, gets his first touchdown catch?

The pick: Packers 31, Giants 27

49ers (6-3) at Saints (7-2)

4:25 p.m. Ch. 13. Saints by 3, 48

The numbers for 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick, above, are down. But much of that is from a depleted receiving corps, where the addition of Anquan Boldin hasn't offset the loss of Michael Crabtree. Can LB Aldon Smith, in his second game since completing alcohol treatment, help San Francisco contain the Saints offense? Drew Brees is 5-1 in the regular season against the 49ers with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. A win helps New Orleans in terms of homefield advantage in the playoffs.

The pick: Saints 34, 49ers 24

Vikings (2-7) at Seahawks (8-1)

4:25 p.m. Seahawks by 121/2, 46

Is Minnesota headed to the No. 1 pick? It is a game back of Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, but its remaining opponents are 40-26, easily the toughest. Seattle is expected to see the season debut of WR Percy Harvin, just in time to face his old team, for whom he scored 29 touchdowns in four seasons. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, above, threw three touchdowns against Minnesota last year in a 30-20 win. Vikings WR Cordarelle Patterson had his first receiving touchdown last week to go with his NFL-best two on kickoff returns.

The pick: Seahawks 41, Vikings 17

Chiefs (9-0) at Broncos (8-1)

8:30 p.m. Ch. 8. Broncos by 8, 49

Kansas City is unbeaten, Peyton Manning, above, has ankle concerns and the Broncos are still a big favorite. This is a chance for the Chiefs to win over doubters unconvinced by a 2-14 team in 2012 going 9-0 to open 2013. Denver has three players with nine touchdowns. The rest of the NFL has two with nine or more. One promising stat for Kansas City. Coach Andy Reid is tough after a bye with a 13-1 record after one. The Chiefs' strength is turnover margin — an NFL-best plus-15 this season.

The pick: Broncos 31, Chiefs 24

Patriots (7-2) at Panthers (6-3)

8:40 p.m. Monday. ESPN. Panthers by 21/2, 46

Carolina has won five straight to become a playoff contender, and New England has won its past seven November games. Tom Brady, above, and Cam Newton both have 13 touchdown passes, but Brady is 13-4 for his career on Monday night. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski is looking like the Gronk of old with nine catches for 143 yards in his last game. Carolina is coming off a 10-9 win at San Francisco. These two last played in Charlotte back in 2005, and the Panthers won 27-17.

The pick: Patriots 27, Panthers 24

Jets (5-4) at Bills (3-7)

1 p.m. Jets by 1, 41

Why, exactly, is Buffalo only a one-point underdog beyond being at home? It has lost five of six and will be without their top receivers, Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods. That leaves relative unknowns T.J. Graham and Marquise Goodwin. First-round pick and QB EJ Manuel, above, is back for Buffalo, but the Bills mustered just 227 yards of offense in his return last week in losing to Pittsburgh. One guy the Bills could use: former Buffalo WR David Nelson. The ex-Gator has played well since latching on with the Jets.

The pick: Jets 24, Bills 17

Ravens (4-5) at Bears (5-4)

1 p.m. Bears by 3, 44

Baltimore is only a game back of the second wild card. And after today, it gets three straight at home. The Ravens must improve their run game. Ray Rice leads them with 289 yards but ranks 43rd in the NFL, and his 2.5 yards per carry is worst among the league's top 80 rushers. Bears QB Josh McCown has played well with four touchdowns and no interceptions. (He had two touchdowns from 2008-12.) Chicago's Brandon Marshall, above, and Alshon Jeffery are on pace for more than receiving 1,300 yards.

The pick: Bears 30, Ravens 24

Browns (4-5) at Bengals (6-4)

1 p.m. Bengals by 6, 411/2

Coming off back-to-back road overtime losses, this is a must-win for Cincinnati going into the bye. After throwing 11 touchdowns in a span of three wins, the Bengals' Andy Dalton has two with six interceptions in the losses. One touchdown was the Hail Mary to A.J. Green, above, at the end of regulation last week. Current Browns starter Jason Campbell has five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Two receivers stepped up for them last week: Davone Bess (two touchdowns) and Greg Little (122 yards).

The pick: Bengals 21, Browns 20

Raiders (3-6) at Texans (2-7)

1 p.m. Texans by 9, 41

Yes, the Texans, losers of seven straight and without top RB Arian Foster, are favored. Houston's Case Keenum has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions and sparked WR Andre Johnson, above, who has five touchdowns over his past two games after totaling four in the previous 28. Only the 49ers have thrown for fewer yards than the Raiders, who also are one sack shy of the most allowed. Houston needs more from RB Ben Tate, who has no touchdowns over the past three games and a long of 12 yards.

The pick: Raiders 21, Texans 17

Cardinals (5-4) at Jaguars (1-8)

1 p.m. Cards by 81/2, 41

Arizona, off back-to-back wins, is only a game out of the wild card despite Carson Palmer, above, throwing 15 interceptions, one off of the NFL lead. We continue to lobby for more touches for Cardinals rookie Andre Ellington, who has 26 carries over the past two wins. The Jags' Maurice Jones-Drew has never averaged fewer than 4.2 yards per carry, but he's at just 3.0 this season with defenses stacking the line against him. Jacksonville won last week despite going 3-for-12 on third down and allowing the Titans to go 10-for-18.

The pick: Cards 31, Jaguars 17

Lions (6-3) at Steelers (3-6)

1 p.m. Lions by 21/2, 461/2

The Lions' Matthew Stafford, above, likes playing the AFC — 19 touchdowns and two interceptions over his past eight games against the conference. That's unlikely to change against a Steelers defense that has only five total interceptions. Only four teams have fewer. Steelers WR Jerricho Cotchery has four touchdowns over the past two weeks, and his six for the season match his high during his 10 years in the league. Pittsburgh has won 11 of 13 in the series, including three straight. But the last meeting was four years ago.

The pick: Lions 24, Steelers 20

Redskins (3-6) at Eagles (5-5)

1 p.m. Eagles by 41/2, 53

The challenge for the Eagles is their next three are at home, where they're 0-4. When the teams met in Week 1, Eagles RB LeSean McCoy, above, went for 184 yards, one of his three games with 150-plus. Redskins WR Pierre Garcon has caught exactly seven passes in three straight games but has just one touchdown. Eagles WR Riley Cooper has seven touchdowns among 28 catches. The only higher touchdown percentage among the top 30 scoring receivers is Seattle's Jermaine Kearse (four among 13).

The pick: Eagles 31, Redskins 20

NFL predictions 11/16/13 [Last modified: Saturday, November 16, 2013 5:16pm]
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