Jaguars (4-9) at Falcons (8-5)
8:20; NFL Network, 1010-AM Line/over-under: Falcons by 11½; 47
If the playoffs started today, the Falcons would be in, claiming one of the NFC's two wild-card slots. But the season isn't over, so now is not the time to slip up. Conventional wisdom would suggest it would take a rather big misstep for Atlanta to lose here. The Jaguars' Maurice Jones-Drew remains the NFL's leading rusher, but the Falcons defense ranks fifth against the run. Plus, Atlanta can offset Jones-Drew with its own workhorse back. Michael Turner, coupled with Atlanta's dangerous passing targets, can move the chains and keep Jacksonville's offense on the sideline.
Stephen F. Holder's pick: Falcons 29, Jaguars 14