Thursday, September 20, 2018
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Playoffs? Bucs, once 3-5, have a chance to do something they've never done before

Playoffs.

That had to be the last thing on your mind five weeks ago when the Falcons took a 40-14 lead against the Bucs on Thursday Night Football. After Tampa Bay fell to 3-5, you might have even spent your college football Saturday scouting potential draft picks.

No one saw a four-game winning streak coming. Such turnarounds are rare occurrences.

Since 1990, which is when the NFL expanded the playoff field to 12 teams, 13 teams started 3-5 and reached the postseason. That averages out to one team every other season.

If that doesn't seem all that rare, consider this: 137 teams started 3-5 and failed to reach the postseason. So, 91 percent of teams that started 3-5 couldn't extend their seasons.

The Bucs have never made the playoffs after starting 3-5. They have, however, made the playoffs after a 4-4 start six times, most recently in 2007.

Tampa Bay has a 47 percent chance of reaching the postseason, according to Football Outsiders. It has a 21 percent chance of winning the NFC South and a 26 percent chance of earning a wild-card spot.

In recent seasons, a 3-5 start has not been the obstacle it once was. Three teams recovered last season — the Texans, Chiefs and Washington. The NFL's realignment to eight four-team divisions is part of the explanation. The 2008 Chargers, 2011 Broncos and 2015 Texans reached because they played in weak divisions.

Say the Bucs make the playoffs. Could they make some noise? Let's just say it's too early to look into flights to Houston for Super Bowl LI. Eight of the 13 3-5 teams to reach the postseason lost in the first round and another four lost in the next. The team that got the farthest: the 1996 Jaguars, who in their second season in the NFL, played in the AFC championship game. They lost to the Patriots 20-6.

Teams that started 3-5 and reached the playoffs (since 1990)

TeamRecordPlayoff result
1990 Saints8-8Lost in wild card round
1994 Patriots10-6Lost in wild card round
1995 Lions10-6Lost in wild card round
1996 Jaguars9-7Lost conference championship
2002 Jets9-7Lost in divisional round
2008 Chargers8-8Lost in divisional round
2011 Broncos8-8Lost in divisional round
2012 Bengals10-6Lost in wild card round
2012 Washington10-6Lost in wild card round
2013 Eagles10-6Lost in wild card round
2015 Texans9-7Lost in wild card round
2015 Chiefs11-5Lost in divisional round
2015 Washington9-7Lost in wild card round

Contact Thomas Bassinger at [email protected] Follow @tometrics.

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