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Looking ahead to NFL season's 2nd half

 
DeMarco Murray has a record eight 100-yard rushing games to start a season and is on pace for 2,000-yard year.
DeMarco Murray has a record eight 100-yard rushing games to start a season and is on pace for 2,000-yard year.
Published Nov. 1, 2014

With Week 9 here, the NFL season is half over. Instead of reviewing the first half, let's look ahead to the rest of the season and some of the biggest stories moving forward:

SUPER BOWL PICKS

This isn't earth-shattering, but eventual Super Bowl champions historically establish themselves as great teams by midseason. Last season's Seahawks won their first four games and were 7-1 at the midpoint. Of the past 11 Super Bowl winners, only one (Green Bay) had fewer than six wins through their first eight games. If that trend holds this season, the Cowboys, Lions, Cardinals, Patriots and Broncos are the top contenders. The Eagles can join the six-win club by beating the Titans today.

HISTORY WATCH

DeMarco Murray's record-breaking eight 100-yard rushing games to start the season for the Cowboys have obscured another startling statistic: He's on pace to become the eighth 2,000-yard running back in league history. His 1,054 yards through eight games are more at the halfway point than any of the previous 2,000-yard backs, nine ahead of Jamal Lewis' 2003 mark. If Murray continues at 132 yards per game, his 2,108 yards will break Eric Dickerson's NFL record (2,105 in 1984). Before the 2013 season, ESPN asked Murray if he was capable of rushing for 2,000 yards. Murray responded: "I think I'm capable of anything."

RACE TO THE TOP PICK

In a strong AFC West, and with two games still ahead against the Broncos and Chiefs, the Raiders don't look like they will be able to rebound from their dreadful 0-7 start. But consider this: Five of the past eight teams to begin a season 0-7 went on to win at least three games, including the 2013 and 2009 Bucs. Since 2007, teams that started 0-7 have averaged the third overall pick in the next draft, meaning the Raiders still have plenty of time to knock themselves out of the running for the No. 1 overall pick.

SEAHAWKS' TOUGH ROAD

Seattle is 4-3 and tied for second in a tough NFC West. Unless the Cardinals slip or the NFC East and NFC North weaken, the defending Super Bowl champion could find itself out of the playoff picture. It wouldn't be the first time. Three of the past five Super Bowl winners have missed the postseason entirely a year after winning the Lombardi Trophy — the 2013 Ravens, 2012 Giants and 2009 Steelers.

NFC SOUTH CLUSTER

The Bucs have preached that the NFC South is still winnable. "We definitely set ourselves up for an epic climb for sure," coach Lovie Smith said. While no one has been eliminated from the weakest division in football, the Saints seem poised to pull away. After Week 8, Football Outsiders gave the Saints a 64 percent chance of winning the division. That number should spike after New Orleans' 28-10 road win over Carolina on Thursday night.

Contact Matt Baker at mbaker@tampabay.com. Follow @MBakerTBTimes.

SCOUTING THE NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Finally healthy, WR Julio Jones still hasn't been able to live up to expectations this season, prompting some to question (again) whether the Falcons gave up too much (five picks) to draft Jones out of Alabama with the sixth overall pick in 2011. Jones' 40-yard touchdown catch against the Bucs on Sept. 18 was his only reception of at least 30 yards this season, according to ESPN. He had two more 40-yard catches than that last season, despite playing only five games because of injury. QB Matt Ryan said the team has had opportunities to get Jones big plays, but it hasn't converted. "It's going to happen again against defenses," Ryan said.

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CAROLINA

Florida State product Kelvin Benjamin has dominated at times, but he also still looks like a rookie at others. His 589 receiving yards are second in the league among rookies, and the No. 28 overall pick is tied with the Bills' Sammy Watkins with five touchdown catches. But Benjamin struggled in Thursday's loss to the Saints. He dropped a pass in the end zone, and he caught only two of his 10 targets for 18 yards. "I just have to be more mature," Benjamin told espn.com. "Just come in more focused, more ready."

NEW ORLEANS

With Drew Brees at quarterback, the Saints aren't known for their defense. But their performance on that side of the ball has been strong recently. After forcing only two turnovers in its first five games, New Orleans has had seven takeaways in the past three — including two in Thursday's victory at Carolina. Cam Newton completed a career-worst 35.1 percent of his passes against the Saints. "It was good to see the pressure and the sacks, the things that really directly affect the turnovers," coach Sean Payton told nola.com.