Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Turning Point, Week 12: Colts pressure Winston, Bucs don't pressure Hasselbeck

Early on, the Buccaneers were clicking.

The Colts reached Tampa Bay territory on each of their first two drives, but the defense held and kept them out of the end zone. Doug Martin charged toward 1,000 rushing yards and crossed the mark when he ripped off a 56-yard gain late in the second quarter. A poised Jameis Winston was money on third down, converting five of seven in the first half.

Then the third quarter happened. In four drives and seven and a half minutes, the game completely flipped.

The Bucs' 12 penalties certainly contributed toward their downfall, but more than anything, they lost to the Colts 25-12 on Sunday because Indianapolis could pressure the quarterback, and they could not. Here's a step-by-step look at how the Bucs came undone.

1. Bucs' first possession of the third quarter

Score: Tampa Bay leads 12-6

Time at start of drive: 15:00

Bucs' win probability: 69.2 percent

The drive begins inauspiciously as a holding penalty on Vincent Jackson negates a Martin 5-yard run and pushes the Bucs back to their own 10-yard line.

On first-and-20, the Colts send five rushers after Winston. Tackle Donovan Smith (76) reaches for defensive end Kendall Langford (90) but can't lock him up. Langford squeezes through an inside lane between Smith and guard Logan Mankins and hits Winston as he throws. Vincent Jackson is running a deep out route, and the pass is just out of his reach.

On second-and-20, linebacker Jerrell Freeman reads the screen pass to Martin. Center Joe Hawley tries to get out in front of the running back, but he overruns Freeman, who sheds the block and holds Martin to a 1-yard gain to set up third-and-long.

On third-and-19, the Colts protect against the deep pass and leave the middle of the field open. Winston lives to fight another day and throws a short pass to Adam Humphries, who gains 9 yards before the defense converges on him. The Bucs punt for the first time in the game.

2. Colts' first possession of the third quarter

Score: Tampa Bay leads 12-6

Time at start of drive: 13:05

Bucs' win probability: 63.8 percent

The play-action on first down momentarily freezes the Bucs' linebackers. T.Y. Hilton runs a crossing route behind them, and the offensive line gives Matt Hasselbeck an extraordinary amount of time to throw. Hasselbeck hits Hilton for a 31-yard gain that takes Indianapolis to the Tampa Bay 33-yard line. It's the Colts' third completion of 20 or more yards; it took them 40 minutes before they completed one against the Falcons the week before.

Holding penalties can be judgment calls, but the Colts got away with a rather egregious one on the completion to Hilton.

Later in the drive, on third-and-3, no Bucs defender comes close to laying a hand on Hasselbeck as he lobs a beautiful 16-yard touch pass to Donte Moncrief. As spectacular as the throw is, it's an equally great catch.

A touchdown seems inevitable until a Lavonte David blitz on second-and-6 hurries Hasselbeck's throw to Andre Johnson on the out route. Safety Bradley McDougald makes a solid play on the ball, lunging to knock it down just before it reaches Johnson.

After Hasselbeck loses a yard on a third-down scramble, the Colts settle for a field goal that cuts the Bucs' lead in half.

3. Bucs' second possession of the third quarter

Score: Tampa Bay leads 12-9

Time at start of drive: 10:01

Bucs' win probability: 59.2 percent

On second-and-9, the Colts again send five rushers. Linebacker Erik Walden and defensive tackle Billy Winn get upfield, but the Bucs' tackles initially keep them out of the pocket. The pass play breaks down entirely when Martin misses on his block of linebacker D'Qwell Jackson. Jackson's pursuit forces Winston to retreat, but Walden and Winn's presence in the backfield restricts his movement in the pocket. There's nowhere for Winston to go; he has to take the sack.

Winston's screen pass on third-and-19 is over Martin's head, and the Bucs are forced to punt from their own 12-yard line. The Colts deal the Bucs another blow when they return the kick 20 yards to the Tampa Bay 46-yard line.

4. Colts' second possession of the third quarter

Score: Tampa Bay leads 12-9

Time at start of drive: 8:27

Bucs' win probability: 46.7 percent

On previous drives, the Colts were content to play it safe and chip away at the Bucs defense. Here, they strike quickly and aggressively.

On second-and-14, the Colts send three receivers deep against the Bucs' Cover 2 (two safeties deep, zone coverage underneath). Andre Johnson, lined up in the slot, runs a fly route down the left seam that draws the attention of the safeties and clears a zone for Moncrief down the right sideline. Hasselbeck drops the pass between cornerback Sterling Moore and a late-arriving McDougald for a 31-yard gain.

While McDougald is responsible for deep routes on the right side of the field, Moore does little to disrupt Moncrief's route. In fact, he doesn't get his hands on him until he's running past him.

The Colts go no huddle and run a similar concept on the next play. On the right side, tight end Dwayne Allen and Hilton run vertical routes. Hasselbeck is trying to get the ball to Allen, who is matched up against Lavonte David, but when McDougald takes a step toward the middle to help David, he vacates the zone Hilton is running to.

When Hasselbeck hits Hilton for the 19-yard touchdown, the Bucs' win probability drops to 26.7 percent and steadily shrinks thereafter.

Contact Thomas Bassinger at [email protected] Follow @tometrics.

Comments
Polly want a sacker: Bucs’ 4th-round draft pick to be delivered by parrot

Polly want a sacker: Bucs’ 4th-round draft pick to be delivered by parrot

Late-round NFL draft picks are often made on a wing and a prayer.The Bucs' fourth-round pick Saturday will be no different. The team announced Monday that as part of the NFL draft TV broadcast, the team's fourth-round pick will be delivered to an ann...
Published: 04/23/18
How Baker Mayfield can benefit the Bucs

How Baker Mayfield can benefit the Bucs

TAMPA — The buzz surrounding this year's NFL draft is a class of talented quarterbacks deep enough to challenge the record six taken in the first round in 1983, a group that included future Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino.Th...
Published: 04/22/18
Ex-NFL kicker Jay Feely apologizes for ‘joke’ gun photo

Ex-NFL kicker Jay Feely apologizes for ‘joke’ gun photo

Former NFL kicker Jay Feely, who was born in Odessa and starred at Tampa Jesuit, has apologized for a photo he intended as a joke, showing him holding a gun as he poses with his daughter and her prom date."Wishing my beautiful daughter and her date a...
Published: 04/22/18
Shaquem Griffin: ‘I’m not just a feel-good story’

Shaquem Griffin: ‘I’m not just a feel-good story’

TAMPA — Shaquem Griffin wakes up knowing each day will be better than the last and barely able to wait until tomorrow."It's just a whirlwind,'' Griffin said.On Thursday, he will walk the red carpet with his family, including his twin brother, S...
Published: 04/21/18
Bucs not listening to outsiders, but expectations remain high for 2018

Bucs not listening to outsiders, but expectations remain high for 2018

TAMPA —Wait 'til this year seems to be the refrain at One Buc Place, even though the team was strangled by expectations in 2017. But a solid offseason that has already brought a rebuilt defensive line, new center and place-kicker has renewed th...
Published: 04/21/18
NFL draft confessions: The Bucs set the trap, and I took the cheese on Johnny Manziel

NFL draft confessions: The Bucs set the trap, and I took the cheese on Johnny Manziel

TAMPA — The NFL draft is one big game of Liar's Poker. Deal me out.Even the guys with a seat at the table don't know when someone is bluffing.Bucs general manager Jason Licht knows that the team's No. 7 overall pick this year will be affected b...
Published: 04/20/18
Bucs’ Jameis Winston, Mike Evans catch Miami Heat game from courtside

Bucs’ Jameis Winston, Mike Evans catch Miami Heat game from courtside

We've seen Jameis Winston and Mike Evans bonding this offseason, going to Texas A&M pro day together, among other events. The two Bucs stars and their significant others double-dated Thursday night, getting courtside seats to watch the Miami Heat in ...
Published: 04/20/18
Sports Day Tampa Bay podcast: Bucs have a tough start to their schedule

Sports Day Tampa Bay podcast: Bucs have a tough start to their schedule

The NFL did the Bucs no favors with their 2018 schedule, Rick Stroud says, making them open at New Orleans, followed by home games against Philadelphia and Pittsburgh Plus, linebacker Kendall Beckwith had surgery to repair a broken ankle, p...
Published: 04/20/18
Here’s the Bucs’ full 2018 schedule

Here’s the Bucs’ full 2018 schedule

TAMPA — How good can the Bucs be in 2018? Fans will get a good sense in the first three weeks, as Tampa Bay opens the year with three of its toughest games, all against reigning division champions. The Bucs open 2018 in New Orleans on Sept. 9 ...
Published: 04/19/18
Updated: 04/20/18
Bucs linebacker Kendell Beckwith fractured ankle in car accident

Bucs linebacker Kendell Beckwith fractured ankle in car accident

TAMPA – Bucs linebacker Kendell Beckwith had surgery to repair a broken ankle he suffered in a car accident in Louisiana last week, putting his status for the start of the season in question.Beckwith was passenger in car driven by former L...
Published: 04/19/18