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Turning Point, Week 8: Bucs literally let a win slip through their hands

 
On the Minnesota Vikings' game-tying drive at the end of the fourth quarter, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed five of eight passes for 54 yards. Four of those five complete passes went for first downs. [Getty Images]
On the Minnesota Vikings' game-tying drive at the end of the fourth quarter, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed five of eight passes for 54 yards. Four of those five complete passes went for first downs. [Getty Images]
Published Oct. 27, 2014

After three quarters Sunday, it was fair to wonder whether the Buccaneers had extended their bye week by a few more days. At that point, they had scored exactly as many points against the Vikings as they did the previous Sunday when they were off: zero.

Then the fourth quarter came, and they scored on three consecutive drives to take a 13-10 lead. It seemed as though the Vikings might squander a fourth-quarter lead for the second straight week and the Buccaneers might celebrate their first home win since December.

Even though the Vikings came back with just 2:02 left in regulation to tie the game at 13, things set up nicely for the Buccaneers in overtime. They won the coin toss and completed a 10-yard pass on their first offensive play. But then the Vikings stripped tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins of the football and ran it back for the game-winning touchdown because … Buccaneers.

(Bucs: You're named after pirates. You are supposed to be the guys who steal from them. You know, pillage and plunder and all that. Sure, in a civilized society, such acts are considered hostile and barbaric, but in football, it's a good thing — celebrated even. And to let a scallywag named Anthony Barrrrr rob you? Shiver. Me. Timbers.)

While the game turned for good when the Buccaneers turned the ball over in overtime, it began shifting when the defense allowed the Vikings to tally five first downs and hurry 61 yards to get in position for the game-tying field goal.

The Buccaneers' defense came up with big stops on the Vikings' previous three possessions, including two three-and-outs, but suddenly had trouble putting them away — not that it didn't come close. In fact, one opportunity to seal the game literally slipped through cornerback Johnthan Banks' hands.

On 1st-and-10 from midfield with 46 seconds left, Vikings first-round rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw down the sideline to Cordarrelle Patterson. Bridgewater targeted Patterson on seven of his previous 12 pass attempts — including three straight times on this drive — so Banks, watching Bridgewater the whole way, jumped Patterson's hitch route. Banks' play very nearly made the game a story about a beautiful Mike Glennon fourth-quarter touchdown lob over two defenders and, for the Vikings, a story about a rookie quarterback who locked onto his first read.

Instead, we're left to dissect what happened on the next play, a play that increased the Vikings' win probability more than any other on the drive. Here's what happened:

Just as on the previous play, the Vikings line up in the shotgun in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers). This time, they run the hitch route on the other side of the field. Bridgewater feels pressure from defensive end Jacquies Smith but stays composed, steps up in the pocket and throws to Jarius Wright for a 17-yard gain that puts the Vikings on the edge of field goal range.

How big was that completion? After Banks' deflection, the Vikings' win probability fell to 23 percent, according to advancedfootballanalytics.com. After Wright's gain, it jumped to 34 percent.

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Completions of three yards and 12 yards to tight end Chase Ford got the Vikings just inside the 20-yard line, and you could have put three more points on the board right then and there as kicker Blair Walsh is virtually automatic from that range. His 38-yarder sailed through the uprights, making him successful on 24 out of 25 career kicks from 30-39 yards away.

Though the defense could not close out the Vikings, it is hardly the reason the Buccaneers lost. For the fourth time in seven games this season, the Buccaneers were shut out in the first half. The offense didn't cross the Minnesota 40-yard line until the very end of the third quarter and didn't reach the red zone until the final four minutes of regulation.

In fact, before a 40-yard completion to Mike Evans with a little more than 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Buccaneers had fewer passing yards (41) than the New England Patriots had points (45) against the Chicago Bears. And when the Buccaneers took possession for the final time during regulation (5:40 remaining), several players across the league had gained more yards than the Buccaneers passing offense.

The Buccaneers have lost games this season by 42 (Atlanta Falcons) and 31 points (Baltimore Ravens), but this loss might be the most difficult to accept. They were at home. They were coming off a bye. They were perhaps the healthiest they've been all season. The Vikings had lost three in a row and hadn't won in Tampa since 1997. If the Bucs couldn't win Sunday, when will they? And if you've already started thinking about the 2015 NFL draft, how much do you want them to?

Coming Thursday on tampabay.com: Cleveland Browns scouting report

Contact Thomas Bassinger at tbassinger@tampabay.com. Follow @tbassfootball.