Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What Madden NFL 17 says about Bucs kicker Roberto Aguayo

Here at the Tampa Bay Times, we're not sure how we feel about Bucs rookie kicker Roberto Aguayo.

In July, I wrote that even if Aguayo is among the best kickers in the NFL, it's unlikely that he could make the Bucs a winner. Two weeks ago, Martin Fennelly wrote that we should leave him alone and "just let the kid kick." Tom Jones weighed in Tuesday and argued that the kicking game is among the Bucs' biggest concerns.

Madden NFL 17 isn't sure, either.

Below is a record of Aguayo's field goal attempts from 10 simulations of the 2016 season.

FGM/FGA FG% FG% rank FG <29 yds FG 30-39 yds FG 40-49 yds FG 50+ yds
Simulation 1 15/20 75 19 0/0 5/5 5/5 5/10
Simulation 2 19/22 86 6 3/3 2/2 6/6 8/11
Simulation 3 14/23 60 30 3/3 3/4 7/8 1/8
Simulation 4 16/21 76 18 5/5 2/2 3/3 6/11
Simulation 5 20/25 80 15 5/5 4/4 7/7 4/9
Simulation 6 17/20 85 6 2/2 3/4 5/5 7/9
Simulation 7 21/24 87 2 9/9 4/4 8/8 0/3
Simulation 8 14/21 66 26 1/1 3/3 6/6 4/11
Simulation 9 19/25 76 18 5/6 3/3 6/6 5/10
Simulation 10 13/18 72 28 4/4 4/4 2/2 3/8
Average 16.8/21.9 76.3 16.8 3.7/3.8 3.3/3.5 5.5/5.6 4.3/9

It seems that video-game Aguayo was all over the place. In one simulation, he made 86 percent of his field goals. The next, just 60 percent. In another simulation, he made 87 percent of his field goals, the second-best conversation rate among kickers. The next, he had one of the worst conversation rates.

If you drill into the data a bit further, you find that Aguayo was actually very consistent, even remarkably so. On field goal attempts from inside 50 yards, he was virtually automatic, converting 125 of 129 tries. On attempts of 50 or more yards, he was as sure of a thing as a coin toss, hitting 43 of 90 tries.

Contact Thomas Bassinger at [email protected] Follow @tometrics.

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