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VOTING TRENDS from the Academy Awards since 1982

Best Picture race

+ The film with the most nominations (This year, that's Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring, with 13 nods) has won the past 18 of 19 races.

+ The Director's Guild Award winner (which would be A Beautiful Mind) has won the past 14 of 19 races.

+ Twelve Best Picture winners since 1982 were released after September (that's all the nominees except Moulin Rouge).

BUT: Since 1982, the lowest-grossing nominee (that's In the Bedroom) hasn't won.

Best Actor race

+ The Best Actor usually (14 for 19) is the star of a Best Picture nominee (This year, that's either Russell Crowe of A Beautiful Mind or Tom Wilkinson of In the Bedroom.)

+ The winner usually (12 for 19) has previously won at least two awards for his performance (Russell Crowe has won both the Screen Actor's Guild and Golden Globe awards).

+ Eleven of 19 winners have been first-time nominees (that stat favors either Will Smith of Ali or Tom Wilkinson).

BUT: Since 1982, the winner has not appeared in the lowest-grossing film (Sorry, Tom).

Best Actress race

+ The winner usually (18 for 19) has at least one pre-Oscar award (which is true of Halle Berry of Monster's Ball, Sissy Spacek of In the Bedroom and Nicole Kidman of Moulin Rouge).

+ The Best Actress usually (11 for 19) stars in a Best Picture nominee (favoring Nicole Kidman and Sissy Spacek).

+ In a reverse of the Best Actor race, 11 Best Actress winners have had prior Oscar nominations (Sissy Spacek and Judi Dench of Iris.)

BUT: Only one winner since 1982 has appeared in the lowest-grossing movie (which could be bad news for Judi Dench).

Best Supporting Actor race

+ The nominee with at least one pre-Oscar award usually (14 for 19) wins (favoring Jim Broadbent of Iris).

+ The winner usually (11 for 19) was in a film released before October (in this field, that's just Ben Kingsley of Sexy Beast).

BUT: The youngest nominee has won only once since 1982 (this year's baby is 31-year-old Ethan Hawke of Training Day).

Best Supporting Actress race

+ First time nominees usually (18 for 19) win (favoring Jennifer Connelly of A Beautiful Mind).

+ Nominees with at least one pre-Oscar award usually (17 for 19) win (that applies to Connelly, Helen Mirren of Gosford Park and Kate Winslet of Iris).

BUT: Only one of the past 19 winners has been in the lowest-grossing film (Sorry, Kate).

Best Director race

+ The winner usually (16 for 19) has won the Director's Guild of America award, favoring Ron Howard for A Beautiful Mind.

+ The film with the most nominations usually (15 for 19) wins the Best Director prize (a plus for Peter Jackson for Lord of the Rings).

+ Films based on true stories have won 12 of the past 19 director prizes (another plus for Howard, as well as Ridley Scott for Black Hawk Down).

BUT: Movies that weren't nominated for Best Picture have not won the director award in the past 19 years (that trend hurts Scott, and David Lynch of Mulholland Drive).

SOURCE: ACNielsen EDI's Academy Awards Guide

OSCARS BALLOT

ABOUT THE BALLOT: Not so long ago, pundits were saying there were few clear favorites for Academy Awards this year. But our experts and readers who entered our Oscar contest were remarkably consistent in their picks. Here's how St. Petersburg Times film critic Steve Persall, academy member Ed. Cassidy and readers voted. (Readers predicted the winners and picked their own favorites in 10 categories. As you can see, they generally think the academy will like the same movies they did.) We'll announce the winners of our Oscar contest in Thursday's Weekend.

BEST PICTURE

A Beautiful Mind

Gosford Park

In the Bedroom

The Lord of the Rings

Moulin Rouge

ACTOR

Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind

Sean Penn, I Am Sam

Will Smith, Ali

Denzel Washington, Training Day

Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom

ACTRESS

Halle Berry, Monster's Ball

Judi Dench, Iris

Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge

Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom

Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones's Diary

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jim Broadbent, Iris

Ethan Hawke, Training Day

Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast

Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings

Jon Voight, Ali

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind

Helen Mirren, Gosford Park

Maggie Smith, Gosford Park

Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom

Kate Winslet, Iris

DIRECTOR

Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind

Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down

Robert Altman, Gosford Park

Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings

David Lynch, Mulholland Drive

ANIMATED FILM

Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius

Monsters, Inc.

Shrek

FOREIGN FILM

Amelie, France

Elling, Norway

Lagaan, India

No Man's Land, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Son of the Bride, Argentina

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Akiva Goldsman, A Beautiful Mind

Daniel Clowes and Terry Zwigoff, Ghost World

Rob Festinger and Todd Field, In the Bedroom

Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings

Ted Elliott & Terry Rossio and Joe Stillman and Roger S.H. Schulman, Shrek

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Guillaume Laurant and Jean-Pierre Jeunet, Amelie

Julian Fellowes, Gosford Park

Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan, Memento

Milo Addica and Will Rokos, Monster's Ball

Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson, The Royal Tenenbaums

ART DIRECTION

Amelie

Gosford Park

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone

The Lord of the Rings

Moulin Rouge

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Amelie

Black Hawk Down

The Lord of the Rings

The Man Who Wasn't There

Moulin Rouge

SOUND

Amelie

Black Hawk Down

The Lord of the Rings

Moulin Rouge

Pearl Harbor

SOUND EDITING

Monsters, Inc.

Pearl Harbor.

ORIGINAL SCORE

A.I. Artificial Intelligence, John Williams

A Beautiful Mind, James Horner

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, John Williams

The Lord of the Rings, Howard Shore

Monsters, Inc., Randy Newman

ORIGINAL SONG

If I Didn't Have You from Monsters, Inc., Randy Newman

May It Be from The Lord of the Rings, Enya, Nicky Ryan and Roma Ryan

There You'll Be from Pearl Harbor, Diane Warren

Until from Kate & Leopold, Sting

Vanilla Sky from Vanilla Sky, Paul McCartney

COSTUMES

The Affair of the Necklace

Gosford Park

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone

The Lord of the Rings

Moulin Rouge

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Children Underground

LaLee's Kin: The Legacy of Cotton

Murder on a Sunday Morning

Promises

War Photographer

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

Artists and Orphans: A True Drama

Sing!

Thoth

FILM EDITING

A Beautiful Mind

Black Hawk Down

The Lord of the Rings

Memento

Moulin Rouge

MAKEUP

A Beautiful Mind

The Lord of the Rings

Moulin Rouge

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Fifty Percent Grey

For the Birds

Give Up Yer Aul Sins

Strange Invaders

Stubble Trouble

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

The Accountant

Copy Shop

Gregor's Greatest Invention

A Man Thing (Meska Sprawa)

Speed for Thespians

VISUAL EFFECTS

A.I. Artificial Intelligence

The Lord of the Rings

The Fellowship of the Ring, Pearl Harbor

Academy Award winners previously announced this year:

Gordon E. Sawyer Award (Oscar statuette): Edmund M. Di Giulio.

Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award (Oscar statuette): Arthur Hiller.

Honorary Awards (Oscar statuettes): Sidney Poitier and Robert Redford.

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