BAGHDAD - After two months, the U.S.-led aerial campaign in Iraq has hardly dented the core of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria's territory. The extremist fighters have melted into urban areas when needed to elude the threat, and they have even succeeded in taking new territory from an Iraqi army that still buckles in the face of militants.
In neighboring Syria, days of airstrikes have been unable to stop militants on the verge of capturing a strategic town on the Turkish border.
The limited results show the central weakness of the campaign: There is only so much that can be done from the air to defeat an extremist force that has swept over much of Iraq and Syria. ISIS fighters have proven elusive and flexible, able to reorganize to minimize the blows. And more importantly, there are almost no allied forces on the ground able to capitalize on the airstrikes and wrest back territory from the militants.
The exception: Iraqi Kurdish fighters, the most effective forces in Iraq, have made some modest gains the past week.
That only highlights how others have proven unable to do the same. The Iraqi military is undermined by corruption and command problems. A new Iraqi government has being trying to woo support from more Sunni tribesmen, whose fighters are seen as vital against the Sunni extremists, but so far there has not been a flood of support. In Syria, rebels supported by Washington are in no position to move against the extremists, and Syria's Kurds are not as well armed as Iraq's.
The United States launched airstrikes in Iraq on Aug. 8 and in Syria on Sept. 23. Several European nations are participating in Iraq, but not in Syria, where the United States was joined by a coalition of Arab allies. U.S. officials have warned repeatedly that the campaign will be long - even years long.
The Pentagon press secretary, Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby, contended last week that the strikes have hampered the militants. Before the strikes, he said, "They pretty much had free rein. They don't have that free rein anymore, because they know we're watching from the air. ... They have dispersed, whereas before they were more structurally cohesive in certain places."
Progress in the north
Most of the success for the air campaign has been in rural, open areas of northern Iraq. Last week, airstrikes paved the way for the Iraqi Kurdish fighters known as peshmerga to plow into a string of towns held by the extremists near the Syrian border: Mahmoudiyah, Rabia and Zumar. The Kurdish offensive is aiming for the town of Sinjar, and if they capture it, the Kurds would secure a main road in and out of Syria that is a militant supply line.
The early airstrikes also halted the extremists' advance toward the Kurdish capital of Irbil and broke ISIS's grip on the strategic Mosul Dam, enabling peshmerga and Iraqi troops to recapture it. Strikes were also instrumental in breaking a siege of the northern town of Amirli, which the militants had surrounded.
But the warplanes have largely avoided Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city and the Islamic State group's biggest stronghold, or the nearby town of Tal Afar, apparently to avoid civilian casualties that would boost support for the group among the region's Sunnis. That has left the extremists a virtual free hand there, which is unlikely to change anytime soon. Last week, retired Gen. John Allen, the U.S. envoy to the international coalition, said operations to retake Mosul will start "within a year."
Losses in Iraq's Anbar Province
It was in Iraq's western province of Anbar that ISIS made its first dramatic land-grab in January by capturing the city of Fallujah. The group found substantial support among the province's overwhelmingly Sunni population, which is largely conservative and deeply resentful of the Shiite-led government in Baghdad,
The extremists are still making gains. Last week, they seized the towns of Hit and neighboring Kubaisa, sending Iraqi soldiers fleeing and leaving a nearby military base with its stockpile of weapons at risk of capture. Government forces still control most of the provincial capital of Ramadi, but the city is vulnerable.
Also at risk is the predominantly Sunni town of Abu Ghraib on the western edge of the capital of Baghdad. The militants already have a significant presence in the town.
Setbacks in Syria
Coalition warplanes appear to have been unable to turn the tide in Syrian city of Kobani, which the militants have besieged for weeks, battling with its Kurdish defenders. Turkey's president warned Tuesday that Kobani is on the verge of falling.
The strikes around the city appear to have been more limited than, for example, the bombardment in August of Amirli, Iraq. In that case, Iraqi troops and Shiite militiamen were poised to swoop into the city after the strikes. In contrast, Kobani's Syrian Kurd defenders are poorly armed and are hampered by longtime tensions with neighboring Turkey, which resents the fighters' ties to Kurdish separatists in Turkey.
The airstrikes in Syria have largely targeted ISIS's infrastructure across the broad northern and eastern regions the extremists hold. Warplanes have hit checkpoints, tanks, training camps and even one of the group's main headquarters in its de facto capital of Raqqa. But activists say ISIS fighters left many of the bases before the strikes began, and the United States and its partners hit empty facilities. Heavy weapons were moved into protected areas.
Coalition strikes also hit oil facilities to try to cut off smuggling by the extremists. That hurt the group's income, although not significantly, said retired Gen. Richard Zahner, a former senior military intelligence official who helped manage intelligence collection in the Iraq war.
"I think they are well on track and very much following their ongoing strategy" of consolidating their gains in the Sunni heartland, he said of the militants.
Vivian Salama, the Associated Press bureau chief in Baghdad, has reported on the Middle East for more than a decade.
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ISIS fighters were poised to capture Kobani, Turkey's president warned Tuesday, even as Kurdish forces battled to expel the extremists from their footholds on the outskirts. The outgunned Kurdish fighters struggling to defend Kobani got a small boost from a series of U.S.-led airstrikes against the militants that sent huge columns of black smoke into the sky. Warning that the aerial campaign alone was not enough to halt ISIS, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for greater cooperation with the Syrian opposition, which is fighting both the extremists and forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad. Erdogan's comments did not signal a shift in Turkey's position: He has said repeatedly that Turkey wants to see a more comprehensive strategy for Syria before it commits to military involvement in the U.S.-led coalition.
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About the Kurds
The Kurds are an ethnic group with their own language and customs whose nomadic past led to their modern-day dispersal across several countries, mostly Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran and Armenia. Sunni Muslims make up the vast majority, but there is a sizable Shiite population, particularly in Iran. After the collapse of the Ottoman and Qajar empires and the subsequent creation of these modern states, Iraq, Iran and Turkey each agreed against the creation of an independent Kurdistan, making them the largest stateless minority group in the world. With nearly 25 million people living in five countries, they continue to push for self-rule.