Adam C. Smith, Times Political Editor
Thursday, October 9, 2014 10:32pm
Rick Scott's deputy campaign manager, Tim Saler, notes that Democrats are falling significantly behind even their 2010 performance in terms of absentee ballots returned. We can confirm we've heard a fair amount of fretting from Democrats that their party has an anemic ballot chasing program.
FROM: Tim Saler, Deputy Campaign Manager
DATE: October 9, 2014
SUBJECT: Public Polling & Absentee Voting
On Sunday, CBS News and the New York Times released a new survey of the Florida Governor's race, showing Governor Rick Scott with a solid 3-point lead over Charlie Crist. Today, the University of North Florida released a survey showing a different result. As has been the case since this race began, public polling goes up and down on a remarkably consistent, if unpredictable, basis.
I won't bore you with my personal theories on why the mainstream media has decided to give more coverage to a poll of 471 voters conducted by college students instead of a poll of nearly 6,000 voters conducted by two of the most prominent news organizations in the country. But I think you can probably figure it out.
Unfortunately for Charlie Crist, this race isn't affected by which polls his friends in the media are pitched to cover, or which ones they're pitched to ignore. This race is about Florida families and the choice they face-whether to go back to record job losses, tax hikes, and education cuts under Charlie Crist, or to move forward with Rick Scott.
Here's one way to look at how this race is really developing: actual votes cast, counted, and in the bank.
At this time in the 2010 campaign, just over 140,000 voters had their ballots counted. Fast-forward to 2012, and a little over 145,000 voters had made their choice. Today, more than 260,000 voters have already cast their ballots in the race for Florida's next governor. And who cast their votes will surprise you even more.
In the 2012 presidential campaign, Republicans and Democrats were neck-and-neck in the race to return absentees. In fact, at this point in 2012, a higher percentage of Democrats had returned their ballots than Republicans – a very narrow 7.1% to 7.0% lead.
In 2010, a Republican wave election, Democrats had returned 9% of their ballots, compared to 9.7% among Republicans.
Today, Democrats trail even their 2010 performance – they're at only 8.8% of their ballots returned.
And Republicans? They're shattering the record books with 12.5% of ballots already returned.
Think about that-more than 12 percent of all Republican absentee ballots in the entire state have already been voted and returned.
Our advantage of nearly 4 points in absentee returns dwarfs not only Republican performance in 2012, but it even dominates Republican performance in the 2010 wave election.
The next time you read a mainstream media story about polls, remember-this election isn't going to be won or lost based on 471 interviews at a university, or even a few hundred interviews in a single district in the Florida House of Representatives.
Tens of thousands of votes are already cast per day. Election Day is already here – and we're winning.
Thank you for everything you do. It's just 26 days until victory, and your continued support will get us there.