Forget a national title. Where might UCF realistically be ranked?

I have the Knights in my second tier of teams.
Published Jan. 4, 2018

No matter what happens Monday between Alabama and Georgia, I won't be voting UCF No. 1 on my AP Top 25 ballot. I can't imagine there will be a split national title, aside from the one the Knights are awarding themselves.

So where is a realistic landing spot for UCF in the final poll?

I haven't formally decided yet, but I think the Knights will be somewhere between fourth and seventh on my final ballot, which I'll submit shortly after Monday's College Football Playoff championship.

My top three teams will almost certainly be Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma, in some order. I don't think I can justify dropping the Sooners lower than third after such a close loss to Georgia in the Rose Bowl, and after the big win at Ohio State.

Speaking of the Buckeyes, they're one of the teams in my next cluster, along with Clemson, Wisconsin and, yes, UCF. You can make a valid case to put those teams in any order, and I probably wouldn't argue too much (as long as Ohio State's head-to-head win puts the Buckeyes ahead of the Badgers).

UCF fans are pounding their win over Auburn, but Clemson has one of those, too. The Knights won by seven at a neutral site while being outgained by 10; Clemson won by eight at home while more than doubling the Tigers' yardage. But Clemson also lost at Syracuse and looked unimpressive against 'Bama in the Sugar Bowl.

If we're looking at transitive games, UCF beat Maryland by 28; Ohio State crushed the Terps 62-14, and Wisconsin beat them 38-13.

Using the Sagarin ratings, the Buckeyes (No. 12) and Badgers (No. 46) both played tougher overall schedules than UCF (No. 72). But in a different set of metrics, the S&P+ rankings, UCF has more top-25 wins (four) than Wisconsin (two) or Ohio State (three). Two of those Buckeyes wins came against top-six teams, and Wisconsin has the edge in top-50 wins (six, compared to four for UCF). Plus, the Badgers looked really impressive to me against Miami in the Orange Bowl. 

Sagarin ranks UCF as the No. 13 team in the country, just behind TCU and ahead of Stanford. S&P+ puts the Knights seventh, between Wisconsin and Clemson.

What do you think? Where do the Knights belong in the final polls?