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A note about predicting turnout in Fla prez primary

How much of the GOP primary vote has already been banked? Based on 2008's GOP primary of 1.94-million, the 592,000 early and absentee votes already cast would be about 30 percent of the primary vote.

But in predicting turnout for 2012, keep in mind that also on the ballot on Jan. 29, 2008 was the "Save Our Homes" Amendment One ballot initiative capping home values for property tax purposes.

That ballot initiative drove up turnout significantly, particularly in south Florida counties like Miami-Dade. Charlie Crist campaigned hard for that initiative, and his political team led by Rich Heffley targeted Republicans not expected to vote in the primary otherwise. That was bad news for Romney - then the main conservative alternative to John McCain - because it meant a much higher number of moderate Republicans showed up for that primary.

By the time the votes are tallied tomorrow night, turnout is likely to be closer to 1.6-million than the nearly 2 million who voted in 2008, which means the early and absentee votes could approach 40 percent of all votes cast.