What follows below is a ranking of all 32 NFL teams. To build this list, we consulted five objective measures of team strength: Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings, ESPN’s Football Power Index, FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings and statistician Jeff Sagarin’s NFL ratings. We then used a composite of those measures as a guidepost.
This week, we’re adding Super Bowl odds for the top 10 teams and top-five draft pick odds for the bottom 10 teams.
1. New England Patriots (record: 10-2; composite ranking: 3.0)
Last week: 23-3 win over Bills
Next: at Dolphins, at Steelers, vs. Bills, vs. Jets
Week 13 ranking: 1
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 18.8 percent
Hard to believe that in the Patriots’ first four games, their opponents scored 42, 20, 33 and 33 points. They haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 17 since.
2. Minnesota Vikings (10-2; 4.4)
Last week: 14-9 win over Falcons
Next: at Panthers, vs. Bengals, at Packers, vs. Bears
Week 13 ranking: 3
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 12.0 percent
The Vikings have double-digit wins through 12 games for the eighth time in team history. The past three times (1998, 2000 and 2009) they reached the NFC championship game and lost. They reached the Super Bowl twice (1969 and 1973).
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-3; 5.4)
Last week: 32-16 win over Cardinals
Next: vs. Eagles, at Seahawks, at Titans, vs. 49ers
Week 13 ranking: 4
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 10.9 percent
The Rams have allowed a league-low 13.2 points per game at home. This Sunday, they host the Eagles, who have scored more points than anyone except … the Rams.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2; 2.6)
Last week: 24-10 loss to Seahawks
Next: at Rams, at Giants, vs. Raiders, vs. Cowboys
Week 13 ranking: 2
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 18.1 percent
MVP candidate Carson Wentz had one of his worst outings of the season Sunday night against the Seahawks. Under pressure for more than half of his dropbacks, the Eagles quarterback failed to throw multiple touchdowns for the first time since Week 4. Seattle exploited one of Philadelphia’s key weaknesses: left tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai (I totally copy-and-pasted his name here). Vaitai, Jason Peters’ injury replacement, allowed 10 pressures.
5. New Orleans Saints (9-3; 2.8)
Last week: 31-21 win over Panthers
Next: at Falcons, vs. Jets, vs. Falcons, at Bucs
Week 13 ranking: 5
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 10.6 percent
Running back Alvin Kamara is on pace to become the first rookie in NFL history to gain 800 rushing yards and 800 receiving yards in a season. There are two players in the 700/700 club: Hall of Famer Charley Taylor (1964) and Herschel Walker (1986).
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-2; 4.8)
Last week: 23-20 win over Bengals
Next: vs. Ravens, vs. Patriots, at Texans, vs. Browns
Week 13 ranking: 6
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 17.9 percent
Early in Monday’s game, Steelers linebacker Ryan Shazier suffered a spinal injury and left on a stretcher. Later, Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict was carted off the field because of a head injury. Ben Roethlisberger’s response in a postgame interview: “AFC North football.” That was mayhem, not football.
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-4; 7.2)
Last week: 24-10 win over Eagles
Next: at Jaguars, vs. Rams, at Cowboys, vs. Cardinals
Week 13 ranking: 9
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 1.3 percent
Russell Wilson made a compelling argument for MVP on Sunday night, passing for 227 yards and rushing for another 31. He threw three touchdown passes and now has scored 29 of the Seahawks’ 30 touchdowns this season. He has thrown 15 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, the most since 2011, when Eli Manning also threw 15.
8. Carolina Panthers (8-4; 10.0)
Last week: 31-21 loss to Saints
Next: vs. Vikings, vs. Packers, vs. Bucs, at Falcons
Week 13 ranking: 7
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 0.9 percent
The Panthers’ loss Sunday all but ended their chances of winning the NFC South. They’ve lost both of their games against the Saints and are 2-2 in the division. New Orleans is 3-0.
9. Atlanta Falcons (7-5; 9.8)
Last week: 14-9 loss to Vikings
Next: vs. Saints, at Bucs, at Saints, vs. Panthers
Week 13 ranking: 8
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 0.3 percent
The Vikings defense held the Falcons in check Sunday. A week after executing seven plays of more than 20 yards against Tampa Bay, Atlanta didn’t execute any against Minnesota. Julio Jones, who gained 253 yards against the Bucs, gained 24 yards against the Vikings.
10. Baltimore Ravens (7-5; 8.6)
Last week: 44-20 win over Lions
Next: at Steelers, at Browns, vs. Colts, vs. Bengals
Week 13 ranking: 12
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 3.9 percent
The Ravens offense had their most productive game of the season, gaining 370 yards against the Lions. This was actually a one-score game until Baltimore scored 17 points in the final seven minutes.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4; 9.4)
Last week: 30-10 win over Colts
Next: vs. Seahawks, vs. Texans, at 49ers, at Titans
Week 13 ranking: 11
Playoff odds: 98.6 percent
For the third time in his four-year career, Blake Bortles threw for more than 300 yards, multiple touchdowns and no interceptions.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (6-6; 12.0)
Last week: 19-10 win over Browns
Next: vs. Washington, at Chiefs, at Jets, vs. Raiders
Week 13 ranking: 14
Playoff odds: 33.6 percent
After four weeks, the Chargers were 0-4 and the Chiefs were 4-0. Now they’re both 6-6. Only one team has ever made the playoffs after an 0-4 start — the 1992 Chargers. They even won a playoff game (and then were crushed 31-0 the next week).
13. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6; 12.0)
Last week: 38-31 loss to Jets
Next: vs. Raiders, vs. Chargers, vs. Dolphins, at Broncos
Week 13 ranking: 10
Playoff odds: 56.8 percent
Three weeks ago, I wrote, “No one’s catching the Chiefs. The AFC West is theirs. Their final seven opponents: Giants, Bills, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos.” Welp. Kansas City’s playoff chances have dropped about 40 percentage points since that brilliant declaration.
14. Dallas Cowboys (6-6; 14.4)
Last week: 38-14 win over Washington
Next: at Giants, at Raiders, vs. Seahawks, at Eagles
Week 13 ranking: 16
Playoff odds: 7.1 percent
The Cowboys’ struggles have been blamed on Ezekiel Elliott’s absence, but Alfred Morris actually has filled in quite well at running back. Since Week 10, he is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (307) and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
15. Detroit Lions (6-6; 15.0)
Last week: 44-20 loss to Ravens
Next: at Bucs, vs. Bears, at Bengals, vs. Packers
Week 13 ranking: 13
Playoff odds: 9.9 percent
Matthew Stafford completed a team-record 20 straight passes against the Ravens. After the 20th completion, he threw an interception and suffered an injury to his throwing hand. He is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bucs. To make the playoffs, the Lions need a healthy Stafford and four straight wins.
16. Washington (5-7; 17.4)
Last week: 38-14 loss to Cowboys
Next: at Chargers, vs. Cardinals, vs. Broncos, at Giants
Week 13 ranking: 15
Playoff odds: 0.5 percent
Washington lost two more fumbles in last week’s loss to the Cowboys, pushing its season total to a NFL-high 12.
17. Green Bay Packers (6-6; 15.6)
Last week: 26-20 win over Bucs
Next: at Browns, at Panthers, vs. Vikings, at Lions
Week 13 ranking: 17
Playoff odds: 11.2 percent
Have you heard the news that Aaron Rodgers might return next week? Against the Bucs, Brett Hundley gained only 18 more passing yards than rushing yards.
18. Tennessee Titans (8-4; 19.0)
Last week: 24-13 win over Texans
Next: at Cardinals, at 49ers, vs. Rams, vs. Jaguars
Week 13 ranking: 18
Playoff odds: 88.6 percent
Don’t let the Tennessee’s record fool you. This is not a good football team. The Titans play their next two games out West, first against the Cardinals and then against the 49ers. Expect at least another narrow, mistake-filled victory and postgame quotes from coaches and players talking about “resiliency” and “finding ways to win.”
19. Oakland Raiders (6-6; 19.8)
Last week: 24-14 win over Giants
Next: at Chiefs, vs. Cowboys, at Eagles, at Chargers
Week 13 ranking: 20
Playoff odds: 16.7 percent
Other than their season-opening win over the Titans, the Raiders haven’t beaten a team that has a record above .500. Down the stretch, they’ll face the Chiefs (6-6), Cowboys (6-6), Eagles (10-2) and Chargers (6-6).
20. Cincinnati Bengals (5-7; 21.6)
Last week: 23-20 loss to Steelers
Next: vs. Bears, at Vikings, vs. Lions, at Ravens
Week 13 ranking: 21
Playoff odds: 1.7 percent
Pittsburgh outscored Cincinnati 13-0 in the fourth quarter Sunday night. Only the Colts (28) have scored fewer fourth-quarter points than the Bengals (41).
21. Buffalo Bills (6-6; 23.0)
Last week: 23-3 loss to Patriots
Next: vs. Colts, vs. Dolphins, at Patriots, at Dolphins
Week 13 ranking: 19
Playoff odds: 12.2 percent
The Bills’ playoff chances fell 24.2 percentage points this week, by far the largest drop across the league (the Chiefs’ chances fell 15.2 points). Quarterback Tyrod Taylor didn’t practice Wednesday because of a bruised knee. If he can’t go Sunday, Nathan Peterman will get the start. In his last start, he threw 14 passes, five of which were intercepted.
22. Houston Texans (4-8; 20.6)
Last week: 24-13 loss to Titans
Next: vs. 49ers, at Jaguars, vs. Steelers, at Colts
Week 13 ranking: 22
Playoff odds: 0.0 percent
A sequence from late in the Texans’ loss to the Titans: false start on fourth and 4, false start on fourth and 9, false start on fourth and 14, 22-yard completion on fourth and 19, interception. I didn’t make that up. That really happened.
23. Arizona Cardinals (5-7; 25.6)
Last week: 32-16 loss to Rams
Next: vs. Titans, at Washington, vs. Giants, at Seahawks
Week 13 ranking: 23
Odds of top-five pick: 1.7 percent
The NFL suspended Rob Gronkowski this week for driving his forearm into the back of a player’s head. Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald weighed in, telling Westwood One Radio, “Taking him off the field for a complete game is going to really hurt the Patriots. I thought he definitely should have been fined heavily. Those kind of plays really don’t have a place in our game. I think the NFL has done a great job of emphasizing that over the last few years. I don’t agree with the one game suspension though.” Want to stay on the field and help your team? Don’t take cheap shots against defenseless players.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8; 21.2)
Last week: 26-20 loss to Packers
Next: vs. Lions, vs. Falcons, at Panthers, vs. Saints
Week 13 ranking: 25
Odds of top-five pick: 12.5 percent
Sunday represents the Bucs’ last best chance to win a game this season, especially if Stafford sits out. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives them a 43.5 percent chance of beating the Falcons, a 28.0 percent chance of beating the Panthers and a 36.9 percent chance of beating the Saints.
25. New York Jets (5-7; 23.2)
Last week: 38-31 win over Chiefs
Next: at Broncos, at Saints, vs. Chargers, at Patriots
Week 13 ranking: 26
Odds of top-five pick: 2.3 percent
Josh McCown had a career game against the Chiefs. He became the 30th quarterback in NFL history to complete 70 percent of his passes, gain 300 passing yards, throw at least one touchdown, rush for at least one touchdown and throw no interceptions. Will the Jets re-sign the 38-year-old?
26. Miami Dolphins (5-7; 26.4)
Last week: 35-9 win over Broncos
Next: vs. Patriots, at Bills, at Chiefs, vs. Bills
Week 13 ranking: 29
Odds of top-five pick: 0.3 percent
Trevor Siemian coming off the flu vs. Jay Cutler coming off a concussion. Five total interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns. That was fun.
27. Chicago Bears (3-9; 26.8)
Last week: 15-14 loss to 49ers
Next: at Bengals, at Lions, vs. Browns, at Vikings
Week 13 ranking: 27
Odds of top-five pick: 49.9 percent
On Sunday, kicker Robbie Gould returned to Soldier Field for the first time since the Bears cut him after the 2016 preseason. His five field goals — including a 24-yard game-winner — accounted for all 15 of the 49ers points.
28. Denver Broncos (3-9; 28.4)
Last week: 35-9 loss to Dolphins
Next: vs. Jets, at Colts, at Washington, vs. Chiefs
Week 13 ranking: 24
Odds of top-five pick: 74.8 percent
The Broncos have never lost 13 games in a season and have lost 12 only once (2010).
29. New York Giants (2-10; 26.8)
Last week: 24-14 win over Giants
Next: vs. Cowboys, vs. Eagles, at Cardinals, vs. Washington
Week 13 ranking: 28
Odds of top-five pick: 93.5 percent
Two years ago, the Giants and Bucs were determined to keep their offensive coordinators from walking out the door for head-coaching gigs elsewhere. The Ben McAdoo era lasted 29 games. If Tampa Bay doesn’t win another game, will Dirk Koetter be back?
30. San Francisco 49ers (2-10; 29.8)
Last week: 15-14 win over Bears
Next: at Texans, vs. Titans, vs. Jacksonville, at Rams
Week 13 ranking: 31
Odds of top-five pick: 92. 1 percent
Sunday marked the first time that every California-based NFL team won on the same day since Nov. 23, 2014.
31. Indianapolis Colts (4-8; 30.2)
Last week: 30-10 loss to Jaguars
Next: at Bills, vs. Broncos, at Ravens, vs. Texans
Week 13 ranking: 30
Odds of top-five pick: 55.9 percent
The only reason why the Colts are even playing these games at this point is to move Frank Gore up the all-time rushing yards list. He’s now fifth, behind Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders and Curtis Martin. He needs 404 yards to catch Martin.
32. Cleveland Browns (0-12; 31.2)
Last week: 19-10 loss to Jaguars
Next: vs. Packers, vs. Ravens, at Bears, vs. Steelers
Week 13 ranking: 32
Odds of top-five pick: 100.0 percent
The Browns’ two best shots at avoiding a winless season are this Sunday against the Packers and two weeks from now against the Bears. It’s also possible that the Steelers won’t have anything to play for in Week 17. They have a 84.7 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft.
Playoff odds are from Football Outsiders. Contact Thomas Bassinger at [email protected] Follow @tometrics.