The Bucs are 22-42 under GM Jason Licht. Does he deserve another draft?

The Bucs have finished last in their division in three of the past four seasons.

They have lost more games than all but four teams.

They have not played in a single playoff game.

Players have come and gone. So have coaches.

But one man has overseen it all: general manager Jason Licht.

You might look at the results and wonder why Licht’s still here. Teams usually move on by now.

Look at the ones that haven’t made the playoffs the past four seasons. The Bears made a change. So did the Browns. And the Jets. And the 49ers.

Besides the Bucs, only the Chargers have stayed the course. They, at least, have had two winning seasons since 2014.

Licht’s had four drafts, and the team still has glaring needs. Cornerback. Offensive line. Running back.

This raises the question: Does he deserve a fifth draft?

To find out, we built a database of every NFL draft pick since 2014. Then we evaluated the performance of those picks. Rather than assign grades — an admittedly arbitrary process — we sought a more objective measure.

We used Approximate Value, or AV, a Pro Football Reference statistic that boils a player’s season down to one number and is supposed to reflect his share of credit for his team’s success. It’s not perfect, but it allows us to compare players across seasons and positions, much like baseball’s Wins Above Replacement statistic.

We added the value each player produced for each season he played. For example, Mike Evans, the Bucs’ first-round pick in 2014, has produced a career AV of 35 (7 in 2014, 10 in 2015, 10 in 2016 and 8 in 2017).

We then compared the value each pick produced with the value he was expected to produce relative to his draft slot (tip of the hat to the Washington Post for the data). Going back to the Evans example: A player drafted seventh overall, as he was, carries an expected AV of 28 over his first four seasons. By this measure, Evans has provided the Bucs a 125 percent return on their draft pick.

One complication is not every draft pick in our analysis has played four seasons. Some have played only one. To account for this, we discounted the expected value of more recent draft picks. Going back once more to Evans: A No. 7 overall pick carries an expected AV of 5 after one season, 13 after two seasons, 21 after three and 28 after four.

After we calculated the career values for all 1,019 players drafted since 2014 and compared those to their expected values, we found which teams exceeded expectations and which fell short. (Note: Because we were most interested in each team’s ability to identify NFL-caliber talent, we credited the team that drafted the player for any value he accumulated.)

We could judge Licht’s drafts based on the Bucs’ wins and losses. But if we judge them by whether he has beaten expectations, his drafts, it turns out, haven’t been as bad as you might think.

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Every NFL general manager has draft hits and misses. There’s no evidence that a team becomes better or worse at drafting over time. In many ways, it is a lottery.

Even for Licht.

During his tenure, the Bucs rank 11th in choosing players who exceed their expected value. The Chiefs, Jaguars and Cowboys have been the best. The Jets, 49ers and Browns have been the worst.

This chart shows the expected AV of teams’ draft picks since 2014. The Browns, by far, had the most draft potential. The Colts had the least.

This chart shows the actual AV teams’ drafted players accumulated.

And this chart shows how well teams have drafted against expectations. Anything above 0 AV indicates a surplus; anything below indicates a loss. The Bucs have drafted roughly as well as the Vikings and the Giants.

While Licht’s draft record is solid, he’s no different from most general managers in that there’s no discernible pattern in his hits and misses.

“Trust me, we do a lot of research and studying and try to come up with (answers),” he said. “We’re not unlike any other team trying to find that magic solution to be able to look into the mind and soul of a player. If I could figure it out, or someone could figure it out, they’d make a lot of money.”

Let’s review each class (and while doing so let’s acknowledge that some of the players below are still developing):

• 2014: Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Charles Sims, Kadeem Edwards, Kevin Pamphile, Robert Herron. Evans is a star, but the rest of the group is gone. Seferian-Jenkins, cut early in the 2016 season, right now stands as the biggest bust under Licht. Pamphile started 33 games, more than one could reasonably expect from a fifth-round pick. Overall, an average draft. Expected AV of draft picks: 74. Career AV of draft picks: 76. Surplus AV: 2.

• 2015: Jameis Winston, Donovan Smith, Ali Marpet, Kwon Alexander, Kenny Bell, Kaelin Clay, Joey Iosefa. The Bucs acquired four legit starters, including a quarterback, even if Winston has yet to live up to his “face of the franchise” billing. The true gem of this class — and of all of Licht’s draft classes — is linebacker Kwon Alexander, one of the best late-round defenders chosen in recent years. According to our calculations, the Bucs’ 2015 class is shaping up to be the best in the NFL. Expected AV: 64. Career AV: 103. Surplus AV: 39.

• 2016: Vernon Hargreaves, Noah Spence, Roberto Aguayo, Ryan Smith, Caleb Benenoch, Devante Bond, Dan Vitale. So far, this class is a disaster. Only the Vikings’ class (headlined by receiver Laquon Treadwell) was worse. Hargreaves might only be a nickel cornerback. Spence has dislocated a shoulder four times and has undergone surgery twice. Licht called the Aguayo pick “bold.” In reality, it was, at best, an emotional overreaction to a perceived need. It was bad not only because the Bucs overpaid to trade up to take a kicker but also because they cost themselves the opportunity to further address needs at defensive end and cornerback. To this day, the move haunts them. Expected AV: 37. Career AV: 21. Surplus AV: -16.

RELATED STORY: Can kicker Roberto Aguayo make the Bucs a winner? The numbers are clear. (from 2016)

• 2017: O.J. Howard, Justin Evans, Chris Godwin, Kendell Beckwith, Jeremy McNichols, Stevie Tu’ikolovatu. This class is a strong rebound for Licht. It’s too early to draw definitive conclusions, but in Howard, Evans, Godwin and Beckwith, the Bucs might have four long-term starters. Lots of upside. Expected AV: 12. Career AV: 15. Surplus AV: 3.

The draft isn’t the only way for a general manager to build a football team, but as Licht has said, it’s the Bucs’ “main meal ticket to success.” He has had two average drafts, one home run and one flameout. While that’s not a spotless record, it should have been sufficient enough to keep his team out of the NFC South basement. So why the 22-42 record?

• • •

When Licht arrived in 2014, the Bucs were a dumpster fire. The season before, they started 0-8 and went on to finish 4-12. They cut starting quarterback and 2009 first-round pick Josh Freeman a month into the season. They averaged 18 points.

The offense was in shambles, so that’s where Licht allocated most of his draft capital. Over 2014 and 2015, Licht chose 13 players. Only one pick played on defense — Kwon Alexander.

That extreme imbalance might seem irresponsible. But if we consider the team’s dearth of talent on offense and the NFL’s tilt toward increased scoring, it’s justifiable. Football Outsiders has found that the total quality of a team is four parts offense, three parts defense and one part special teams. You can win a lot of games with a great defense, but the more likely path to sustained success is a great offense.

As a result of Licht’s heavy investment in the offense, the defense languished. He and coach Lovie Smith tried to patch holes via free agency, but Michael Johnson, Alterraun Verner and Mike Jenkins disappointed. Tampa Bay’s defense slid from eighth in Football Outsiders’ efficiency ratings in 2013 to 18th in 2014 and 2015. The pass defense, in particular, became a liability.

Some of these deficiencies were set in motion long before Licht’s arrival. Two years ago, we conducted a similar analysis of the Bucs’ draft record and found that in the decade after the team’s Super Bowl win, they were among the worst drafting teams.

While other teams were drafting high-impact starters, the Bucs were drafting players like Freeman, Gaines Adams, Arron Sears, Dexter Jackson, Brian Price, Arrelious Benn and Da’Quan Bowers more often than they were drafting players like Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David.

RELATED STORY: Analysis: The Bucs have an awful draft record. Here’s the data to prove it. (from 2016)

And now Licht, as he enters his fifth season, finds himself in a position similar to predecessor Mark Dominik — a lot of needs that need to be filled quickly. We’ve already seen evidence of increased urgency. Last month, Licht traded an early third-round pick for defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul.

That Pierre-Paul trade might not seem as desperate as Dominik’s trade for cornerback Darrelle Revis in 2013, but it carries similar risk. In both cases, the Bucs decided to pass up the opportunity to find a long-term, low-cost contributor in exchange for a short-term, high-cost known quantity. Often, the teams that trade the early pick come out on the losing end of the deal.

In a make-or-break draft for Licht, the Bucs are down to seven picks (barring a trade), and only two in the first 100 overall. As hard as Licht and his staff have worked to scout and evaluate prospects, history tells us there’s no certainty that their picks will pan out. The only certainty is that if they don’t, Licht won’t be back.

Contact Thomas Bassinger at tbassinger@tampabay.com. Follow @tometrics.