Poll: Andrew Gillum v. Gwen Graham in Leon County

Among the unusual characteristics of the Democratic gubernatorial primary is the presence of two Tallahassee residents, Mayor Andrew Gillum and former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham.

Which one would carry overwhelmingly Democratic Leon County today? Gwen Graham easily, according to an internal poll by SEA Polling & Strategic Design. Graham receives 43 percent support, Gillum 29 percent, Philip Levine 3 percent, Chris King 2 percent, and Undecided 23 percent, the Jan. 8-11 telephone survey off 300 likely general election voters (MoE +/- 5.6 percent) found.

More from SEA's memo by Tom Eldon, who said he is unconnected to any gubernatorial campaign and conducted the poll for a private client:

###Gillum is better known than Graham, but carries higher negative ratings with a 51-27 rating.

###Graham has higher positives with 56% favorable and lower negatives at 17%.

###Despite strong job approval ratings, 46% believe it's time for someone else as Mayor to 40% who believe Gillum deserves to be re-elected.

###Gillum could possibly be struggling in this re-elect measure and the primary question due to
the well-publicized FBI investigation that continues to plague City hall.

Here's the actual question for that last one: "As you may have heard, the FBI has been conducting an investigation into the City of Tallahassee's Community Redevelopment Agency, subpoenaing thousands of emails, letters, checks, and wire transfers between city officials, eight business executives, and 16 companies involved in development deals dating back over the four years Andrew Gillum served as mayor. If you came to know this was true, would it give you serious doubts, some doubts, only a little doubt, or no doubts at all over Andrew Gillum as governor of Florida?

Forty percent said serious doubts, 21 percent said some doubts, 9 said only a little, 20 said no doubts, and 10 percent didn't know or refused to answer.

Despite only 40 percent saying Gillum deserves to be elected and the damage his image sustained from that pending FBI investigation, Eldon said he believes Gillum's stong name recognition would make him highly likely to win reelection in November.

"I'd bet it all on Gillum," he said.