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Five things to watch as Trump descends on Tampa today

It's a Trump rally, so anything can happen. But here are a few things to keep an eye on.
 
Published July 31, 2018

Have you heard? President Donald Trump is coming to Tampa today.

Trump is making a long-anticipated visit to the Sunshine State to rally his base and raise the profile of U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, a Republican candidate for governor. He'll visit Tampa Bay Technical High School before a campaign-style event at the Florida State Fairgrounds.

FOLLOW OUR LIVE COVERAGE TODAY: Trump expected to draw big crowds

The Tampa Bay region has a long, storied history of hosting presidents — as candidates, as commanders-in-chief and after leaving the Oval Office. But Trump, a former reality TV personality, is a unique performer and his off-the-cuff speeches can provoke supporters into a mass frenzy and detractors to pull out their hair.

Here's what to watch for as Trump holds his first presidential event in Tampa.

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, center, meets with members of the media after a Florida Republican gubernatorial primary debate at the Republican Sunshine Summit in Kissimmee in June. [AP]
Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, center, meets with members of the media after a Florida Republican gubernatorial primary debate at the Republican Sunshine Summit in Kissimmee in June. [AP]
1. Will Trump go after Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam?

Trump's visit could not come at a better time for DeSantis — or a worse time for Putnam. Leading the race for months, Putnam now trails DeSantis in the Republican gubernatorial primary by as much as 12 percentage points as counties send out vote-by-mail ballots.

To add insult to injury, Trump is first holding a roundtable discussion on vocational and career learning, a topic Putnam has frequently highlighted on the trail. (It's also Putnam's birthday.)

A backer of Jeb Bush in the presidential primary, Putnam criticized Trump as "vile" after the then-GOP nominee was caught on an Access Hollywood microphone claiming to have grabbed women by the genitals. However, he has since warmed to Trump, even airing campaign ads promising to be a stalwart for the president's immigration policies. Still, Putnam is very much the candidate favored by many in the so-called Republican establishment, or whatever is left of it in Florida.

TRUMP'S GUY: What five years in Congress tells us about Ron DeSantis. 

In select races across the country, Trump has coupled his endorsement with a full-on takedown of the opponent. Hours before polls closed in a South Carolina primary, Trump endorsed Katie Arrington for Congress over incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford, who Trump tweeted was "very unhelpful to me in my campaign to MAGA (Make America Great Again)."

Fox News personality Sean Hannity didn't mention Putnam by name at all when he campaigned for DeSantis in Tampa earlier this month. Will Trump?

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Associated Press)

2. Will Trump inflame government shutdown speculation?

Trump surprised even his own party this weekend when he tweeted that he would be willing to shut down the government unless Democrats move to his positions on immigration.

Congressional Republicans didn't appear interested in following Trump down that road. It's going to be a tough-enough election year as it is without Democrats hanging a shutdown around the neck of the ruling party.

But Trump has staked out positions before that rally his base even if a majority of the country is skeptical or opposed. This could be one of those times. If he keeps up that talk, Republicans, including DeSantis, will have to take sides.

Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio on the presidential debate stage in 2015. (Associated Press)

3. Will Trump revive attacks on "Low Energy" Jeb Bush and "Little" Marco Rubio?

For two decades, Republican dominance in Florida has been choreographed by former Gov. Jeb Bush and his disciples, and later House Speaker-turned-U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio. In the 2016 election, Florida Republican Party stalwarts were forced to choose sides between the two, only to watch Trump eviscerate both, and do so with demeaning, infantile attacks on two well-respected Republican candidates.

As Tampa Bay Times Political Editor Adam C. Smith wrote last week, the Florida GOP is now the Party of Trump. Many long-time Bush and Rubio voters are firmly Team MAGA. Will Trump further seize that mantle by trashing the Republicans who built the RPOF into a powerhouse? And how would the crowd react if he does? Rubio is still a sitting senator, after all.

This photo, from November 2016, seems almost distant now. [Twitter]
This photo, from November 2016, seems almost distant now. [Twitter]
4. How strongly will Trump stump for Gov. Rick Scott?

Scott's allegiance to Trump is complicated. During the presidential campaign, Scott was one of the first governors to insist Trump be taken seriously and has called the former real estate mogul and part-time Florida a resident a friend.

Now a candidate for U.S. Senate, Scott has been less willing to embrace Trump. Indeed, he has even criticized Trump at times. Notably, he won't be at Tuesday night's rally. Instead, Scott plans to join Trump at Tampa Bay Technical High School before ducking out for a fundraiser.

Trump and Republicans need Scott to unseat U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson. It could be the race that determines if the Senate remains in Republican control or if it turns blue. Meanwhile, Scott faces token primary opposition. He needs Trump's base of support to come out strong in November, but he can't turn off moderates who might be growing disenchanted by chaos and bombast coming out of the White House.

The extent to which Trump makes noise for Scott or against Nelson could signal how much Scott wants to be associated with the administration come November.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump walks in the rain with Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, as they arrive at a campaign rally in Tampa, Fla., Wednesday, Aug. 24, 2016. (Loren | Tampa Bay Times )

5. Where does Pam Bondi fit in Trump's world now?

Few Florida Republicans have earned more praise from Trump than Attorney General Pam Bondi. She was quick to recognize Trump's surge in 2016 wasn't a fluke and she campaigned with Trump during stops in Florida, including in Tampa. At this year's Hillsborough County Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner, Trump called into the event via Bondi's cell phone and vowed to visit Florida soon.

"Pam is fantastic," Trump said.

As Trump makes good on that promise, Bondi has aligned herself with Putnam. She cut an ad for him, asserting that Putnam would be the best ally for Trump in Florida.

"I fought hard to elect President Trump and I'm supporting Adam Putnam for governor," Bondi says in the 30-second spot. "Adam will stand with President Trump to get tough on illegal immigration, ban sanctuary cities and deport criminal illegal aliens."

But Trump is in town to campaign for the other guy. Has that soured their relationship? Will she be at his side this time?