Poll: Dead heat between Philip Levine and Gwen Graham

Andrew Gillum is in third place
Levine and Graham
Levine and Graham
Published Aug. 22, 2018|Updated Aug. 22, 2018

First the qualifier: A lot of different polls are coming out in this final week of the the primary. Some of the pollsters are well-respected. Some have decidedly mixed tracks records and/or suspect methodology. Some are so widely considered junk, or their funders are untrustworthy, that we don't post them on this blog. Best to be skeptical of most any poll you see. Or at least don't assume it's gospel.

That out of the way, here's a new poll from a pollster who falls into the well-respected category. Democratic pollster Tom Eldon of SEA Polling & Strategic design polled 669 likely Democratic primary voters Aug. 19 – 21 (MoE +/- 3.79 percent) that shows a dead heat between Philip Levine and Gwen Graham.

Levine had 26 percent support, Graham 25 percent, Andrew Gillum 18 percent, undecided 15 percent, Jeff Greene 13 percent, and Chris King 2 percent.

"With just under a week to go in the Democratic primary and early voting underway across the state, Philip Levine holds a one-point lead over Gwen Graham. Among those who have voted and are paying attention, the race is also razor close with Levine holding a two-point edge among voters in the bank and Graham down one among those with the most interest in the race,
Eldon wrote in a memo.

Eldon would not disclose the name of the client paying for the survey — raise your eyebrows in skepticism, please — except to say it is a political committee not connected to any of the campaign.

The candidates' favorable/unfavorable numbers:

Gillum 45/11 (can't rate 44%)
Graham, 54/20 (27%)
Greene 43/32 (26%)
King 20/17 (63%)
Levine 57/18 (25%)

"Name recognition is equally close with Graham, Greene and Levine within a few points in total recognition while Greene carries the highest unfavorable rating at 32 percent of primary voters. Gillum leads Greene with 45 percent favorable to 43 percent favorable," Eldon noted.